I picked a Seahawks game right! I picked a Seahawks game right! 9-5 (60-44 overall), that’s better, especially considering it came in a week that the Browns beat the Saints, the Raiders looked like the greatest show on turf, and the breaks kept going absurdly in the Steelers favor. Here’s the updated picks record. Again, the number beside each game in the picks is the number of games I am above or below .500 in games involving those two teams.
6-0: Lions, Bills
6-1: Falcons, Giants
5-1: Vikings, Cardinals
5-2: Jaguars, Packers, Saints
4-2: Colts, Steelers
4-3: Raiders, Titans, Browns, Ravens, 49ers, Eagles
3-3: Chiefs, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, Buccaneers
3-4: Broncos, Chargers, Bears, Rams, Redskins
2-4: Texans, Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys
1-5: Seahawks
NFC (23-15)
WSH vs DET(+5)- This is tough, the Redskins keep outperforming themselves, making them due for a loss, and the Lions have some good upset potential against mid-range to fairly good teams like Washington. Yet, the Redskins fight versus the Lions various “almost” games is tough to pick against. Redskins win.
CAR vs STL(-1)- Panthers finally picked up their first win, but I still have very little faith. I’ll take the Rams to tally a win here before they continue to fall back. Rams win.
TB vs ARI(+4)- I laughed at a headline I saw saying “Buccaneers NFC’s best?” I’m definitely not going there after a few mildly impressive wins by Tampa Bay. But last week, the Bucs took care of a mediocre NFC West team and they do it again this week. Buccaneers win.
AFC (18-17)
MIA vs CIN(-2)- The Bengals have discovered the impressive formula of how to put up huge passing numbers yet still lose week in and week out. Miami missed a lot of chances last week and it still took an officiating blunder for the Steelers to win. Now THAT impresses me. Dolphins win.
BUF vs KC(+6)- Kansas City has shown an offense the last two weeks, albeit against defenses that aren’t that great, but here they get another one. Chiefs win.
TEN vs SD(0)- The Titans look pretty good, but it’s games like these that keep them from getting into the group of good teams. The Chargers haven’t been terrible for a 2¬-5 team. This is the type of game they’ll be able to pull out. Chargers win.
HOU vs IND(0)- Week 1 rematch where we got our first glimpse of the Arian Foster we now know. Not a repeat performance for the Texans running back, though he could still have a very nice game against the Colts undersized defense. The Colts have things more together now, and the Texans have only looked more questionable as time goes by. Colts win.
INT (18-11)
JAC vs DAL(+1)- It’s hard to keep picking a team with as many talented players as Dallas to keep losing, but have they showed any winning ability? Both teams are playing with backup quarterbacks. Neither is very good. But I guess Miles Austin big plays will eventually be enough to win some games here and there. Cowboys win.
DEN vs SF(0)- Broncos are 2-5. 49ers are 1-6. Like Jags/’boys, it’s hard to pick either. Troy Smith brings a spark to the 49ers, but that spark might not lead to a fire. The Broncos look to bounce back from a humiliating trouncing by the Raiders and that should motivate them. Broncos win.
GB vs NYJ(+3)- The Packers win over Minnesota showed grit, but far from proved that their problems are gone, showed that they have more, if anything. The Jets are still looking good and I’ll take their consistency over the Packers potential. Jets win.
MIN vs NE(+2)- The Vikings continue to sink and the Patriots keep winning, though Belicheck’s bad case of feelings of invincibility nearly cost them last week. Moss playing against his team of several weeks ago adds intrigue, but unless Favre manages to get himself back on the field AND plays better than he has been, that intrigue won’t last long into a Patriots blowout. Patriots win.
SEA vs OAK(-3)- Rule #1: If in doubt, don’t pick the Raiders. I’m not convinced that the Seahawks are really good, and I’m not as sure as I once was that the Raiders are totally aweful. But nothing good has ever come from picking Oakland (at least for me), so I’ll stick with the Seahawks to keep impressing. Seahawks win.
PIT vs NO(+5)- The Browns defense made Drew Brees look silly, and the Steelers defense is top notch, so it could be another tough offensive day for the Saints. And nothing can possibly go wrong for the Steelers, so Steelers win.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Anyone want to guess my record from last week? That’s right, 8-6 for the 3rd straight week. Six weeks down and I stand at a consistent, yet highly unimpressive record of 51-39. Only 12 games above .500 and that is even without the aid of a sub .500 week. So while predicting games is not a formula oriented task, I’ve compiled some personal stats to help you sort my more credible picks from the less credible ones. Here is a team by team record of how successful I am at picking their games:
Picking Record:
6-0: Lions
5-0: Bills
5-1: Giants, Saints, Falcons
4-1: Cardinals, Vikings, Steelers
4-2: Eagles, 49ers, Packers, Browns, Raiders, Colts, Titans, Jaguars
3-2: Panthers, Dolphins
3-3: Ravens, Jets, Broncos
2-3: Chiefs, Buccaneers
2-4: Rams, Bears, Texans, Chargers, Redskins
1-4: Cowboys, Bengals, Patriots
0-5: Seahawks
Yes, picking the Bills has been easy. The Seahawks…wow. I have absolutely no idea what’s going on with that team. A bad picking record for the Cowboys would normally indicate me picking them to lose every game that they might possibly loose. In this case, it’s them losing games that I pick them to win. So take these stats to mean as much or as little as you like. Here’s the picks with an indicator of how many games above or below .500 I am at picking the teams involved.
NFC
WSH vs CHI(-4)- I’m actually starting to be impressed with the Redskins. Even though they sit at 3-3, every game apart from the Rams embarrassment has been a one score game. The reason I’m taking a conservative approach to getting excited about the Skins is that their 4-12 record last year was laced with one score losses. Against the Bears, however, one of the teams that I finally jumped on board with last week, I’m feeling pretty confident in their defense against the question mark that is Jay Cutler and in their McNabb improved offense against a Bears defense that is good, but not what it was several years ago. Redskins win.
STL vs TB(-3)- In their last games, the Buccaneers were humbled by the Saints and the Rams were humbled by the Lions. The Rams have showed some offensive fire power, but the loss of Mark Clayton cuts into that dramatically. I’m still not on the Bucs bandwagon, but I’ll take them as reality starts to fall on the Rams. Buccaneers win.
SF vs CAR(+3)- The 49ers finally got a win last week, though it took the Raiders to do so, and now face a team looking for their first. The Panthers have struggled to show much of anything. The 49ers, however, have shown a good bit; they’ve just been an atrocious team. I hope they’ve learned that shooting themselves in the foot hurts, as I said they eventually would at some point, because it’s nerve wracking taking such an inconsistent team twice in a row. Those worries are greatly reduced by the Panther, however. 49ers win.
ARI vs SEA(-2)- Somehow the Cardinals have arrived at a 3-2 r ecord while making us all believe that they’re terrible. Even their defeat of the defending champions I found almost surprisingly unimpressive. Somehow, they just don’t look good. Granted, starting an undrafted rookie quarterback does tend to indicate that your other quarterback options haven’t worked out. As for the Seahawks, the addition of Marshawn Lynch brings some pop to the running game, and is Matt Hasselbeck back? I’m going to go with the Seahawks as they have shown several quality wins. Seattle wins.
MIN vs GB(+5)- The Vikings looked decent in their win over a decent Cowboys team, but it was enough to make me believe that they might be on their way back. Meanwhile, the Packers lost a tight overtime game against the Dolphins. I’m starting to believe that while the Packers offense is a capable offense, it’s not a dominating one that will walk over even stout defenses as I previously believed it would. Nevertheless, the Vikings defense isn’t one that I would call stout, nor is the Packers defense one I would suspect to fall in shambles versus the Vikings. Packers win.
NYG vs DAL(+1)- What can you say about the Giants other than, boy have they turned things around. After a dreadful 1-2 start, I was quite ready to bury them (at least, after they upset the Bears), but they’re stormed back and are making a case to be the best team in the NFC East. Meanwhile, the bright spot of the Cowboys has been last year’s laughing stock: Roy Williams. Should the Cowboys be in this game come the 4th quarter, the Giants should be able to force Tony Romo into yet another game killing mistake. Giants win.
AFC
BUF vs BAL(+5)- Tough OT loss for the Ravens last week, but now, the perfect remedy.
JAC vs KC(+1)- Despite the tough loss against the Texans, the Chiefs finally showed a passing offense, something they’ll need. Even though the Texans defense is far from the best pass defense, the Jaguars isn’t much better. Kansas City gets back in the win column.
PIT vs MIA(+4)- The Steelers struggled a bit against the Browns before breaking things open in the 4th quarter, but that’s their game. The Dolphins have really impressed me, suffering losses only to the Jets, and the Patriots (thanks to a wild special teams flop). They play close games and have done a fairly good job of coming out on top. Expect a game. A really good game. Two teams that play tough, close games. My mind says Steelers, but this could be one of the few games the Steelers manage not to win this year. Dolphins win.
NE vs SD(-5)- San Diego, San Diego. How is it that a team can amass so much offense and come away with so little to show for it? Meanwhile, the Patriots have been a far cry from what they’ve been over the past decade, yet they’ve pulled out a 4-1 record. Stats versus guts. Patriots win.
OAK vs DEN(+2)- Every now and then I love to see a guy that gets ripped to shreds emerge from a team with a bad passing game/receivers and succeed with some real help. That’s what we seem to have with Kyle Orton. I vaguely remember watching one of his first starts in the league after a Rex Grossman injury and thinking “here’s a guy that doesn’t look terrible on a bad offensive team. Too bad he’ll probably never get a chance to start other than injury fill in.” Denver hasn’t looked too bad and the Raiders are next up. Broncos win.
INT
CIN vs ATL(+1)- The Falcons defense got burned by the Maclin/Jackson combo and now face another good receiving corps. Carson Palmer has been mistake prone, however, though he has the potential to still play a good game. Matt Ryan looked terrible last week, but if he gets protection, should be able to win the game for Atlanta. Falcons win.
PHI vs TEN(+4)- Impressive win for the Eagles and statement performance from Kolb who looks to be getting the start again this week. DeSean Jackson won’t be in to open things up for everyone else, but they have plenty of offensive talent to keep things rolling. A big factor is the Eagles hit or miss run defense (is it just me, or does it seem like they only give up runs of either 2 or fewer yards or 5 or more?). Chris Johnson breaks a big one or two, but the Eagles should keep him contained for the most part and I’ll take the Eagles secondary over Vince Young. Eagles win a close game.
CLE vs NO(+5)- Colt McCoy has an easier task than he did last week against the Pittsburg D (okay, one of these days I’ll go a week without gushing about the Steelers defense or giving someone from last week a free pass for having to play them) but the Saints are no push over either. They finally looked really good last week by dominating the Buccanears. They haven’t been pretty, but they’ve been getting the job done. Saints win.
Picking Record:
6-0: Lions
5-0: Bills
5-1: Giants, Saints, Falcons
4-1: Cardinals, Vikings, Steelers
4-2: Eagles, 49ers, Packers, Browns, Raiders, Colts, Titans, Jaguars
3-2: Panthers, Dolphins
3-3: Ravens, Jets, Broncos
2-3: Chiefs, Buccaneers
2-4: Rams, Bears, Texans, Chargers, Redskins
1-4: Cowboys, Bengals, Patriots
0-5: Seahawks
Yes, picking the Bills has been easy. The Seahawks…wow. I have absolutely no idea what’s going on with that team. A bad picking record for the Cowboys would normally indicate me picking them to lose every game that they might possibly loose. In this case, it’s them losing games that I pick them to win. So take these stats to mean as much or as little as you like. Here’s the picks with an indicator of how many games above or below .500 I am at picking the teams involved.
NFC
WSH vs CHI(-4)- I’m actually starting to be impressed with the Redskins. Even though they sit at 3-3, every game apart from the Rams embarrassment has been a one score game. The reason I’m taking a conservative approach to getting excited about the Skins is that their 4-12 record last year was laced with one score losses. Against the Bears, however, one of the teams that I finally jumped on board with last week, I’m feeling pretty confident in their defense against the question mark that is Jay Cutler and in their McNabb improved offense against a Bears defense that is good, but not what it was several years ago. Redskins win.
STL vs TB(-3)- In their last games, the Buccaneers were humbled by the Saints and the Rams were humbled by the Lions. The Rams have showed some offensive fire power, but the loss of Mark Clayton cuts into that dramatically. I’m still not on the Bucs bandwagon, but I’ll take them as reality starts to fall on the Rams. Buccaneers win.
SF vs CAR(+3)- The 49ers finally got a win last week, though it took the Raiders to do so, and now face a team looking for their first. The Panthers have struggled to show much of anything. The 49ers, however, have shown a good bit; they’ve just been an atrocious team. I hope they’ve learned that shooting themselves in the foot hurts, as I said they eventually would at some point, because it’s nerve wracking taking such an inconsistent team twice in a row. Those worries are greatly reduced by the Panther, however. 49ers win.
ARI vs SEA(-2)- Somehow the Cardinals have arrived at a 3-2 r ecord while making us all believe that they’re terrible. Even their defeat of the defending champions I found almost surprisingly unimpressive. Somehow, they just don’t look good. Granted, starting an undrafted rookie quarterback does tend to indicate that your other quarterback options haven’t worked out. As for the Seahawks, the addition of Marshawn Lynch brings some pop to the running game, and is Matt Hasselbeck back? I’m going to go with the Seahawks as they have shown several quality wins. Seattle wins.
MIN vs GB(+5)- The Vikings looked decent in their win over a decent Cowboys team, but it was enough to make me believe that they might be on their way back. Meanwhile, the Packers lost a tight overtime game against the Dolphins. I’m starting to believe that while the Packers offense is a capable offense, it’s not a dominating one that will walk over even stout defenses as I previously believed it would. Nevertheless, the Vikings defense isn’t one that I would call stout, nor is the Packers defense one I would suspect to fall in shambles versus the Vikings. Packers win.
NYG vs DAL(+1)- What can you say about the Giants other than, boy have they turned things around. After a dreadful 1-2 start, I was quite ready to bury them (at least, after they upset the Bears), but they’re stormed back and are making a case to be the best team in the NFC East. Meanwhile, the bright spot of the Cowboys has been last year’s laughing stock: Roy Williams. Should the Cowboys be in this game come the 4th quarter, the Giants should be able to force Tony Romo into yet another game killing mistake. Giants win.
AFC
BUF vs BAL(+5)- Tough OT loss for the Ravens last week, but now, the perfect remedy.
JAC vs KC(+1)- Despite the tough loss against the Texans, the Chiefs finally showed a passing offense, something they’ll need. Even though the Texans defense is far from the best pass defense, the Jaguars isn’t much better. Kansas City gets back in the win column.
PIT vs MIA(+4)- The Steelers struggled a bit against the Browns before breaking things open in the 4th quarter, but that’s their game. The Dolphins have really impressed me, suffering losses only to the Jets, and the Patriots (thanks to a wild special teams flop). They play close games and have done a fairly good job of coming out on top. Expect a game. A really good game. Two teams that play tough, close games. My mind says Steelers, but this could be one of the few games the Steelers manage not to win this year. Dolphins win.
NE vs SD(-5)- San Diego, San Diego. How is it that a team can amass so much offense and come away with so little to show for it? Meanwhile, the Patriots have been a far cry from what they’ve been over the past decade, yet they’ve pulled out a 4-1 record. Stats versus guts. Patriots win.
OAK vs DEN(+2)- Every now and then I love to see a guy that gets ripped to shreds emerge from a team with a bad passing game/receivers and succeed with some real help. That’s what we seem to have with Kyle Orton. I vaguely remember watching one of his first starts in the league after a Rex Grossman injury and thinking “here’s a guy that doesn’t look terrible on a bad offensive team. Too bad he’ll probably never get a chance to start other than injury fill in.” Denver hasn’t looked too bad and the Raiders are next up. Broncos win.
INT
CIN vs ATL(+1)- The Falcons defense got burned by the Maclin/Jackson combo and now face another good receiving corps. Carson Palmer has been mistake prone, however, though he has the potential to still play a good game. Matt Ryan looked terrible last week, but if he gets protection, should be able to win the game for Atlanta. Falcons win.
PHI vs TEN(+4)- Impressive win for the Eagles and statement performance from Kolb who looks to be getting the start again this week. DeSean Jackson won’t be in to open things up for everyone else, but they have plenty of offensive talent to keep things rolling. A big factor is the Eagles hit or miss run defense (is it just me, or does it seem like they only give up runs of either 2 or fewer yards or 5 or more?). Chris Johnson breaks a big one or two, but the Eagles should keep him contained for the most part and I’ll take the Eagles secondary over Vince Young. Eagles win a close game.
CLE vs NO(+5)- Colt McCoy has an easier task than he did last week against the Pittsburg D (okay, one of these days I’ll go a week without gushing about the Steelers defense or giving someone from last week a free pass for having to play them) but the Saints are no push over either. They finally looked really good last week by dominating the Buccanears. They haven’t been pretty, but they’ve been getting the job done. Saints win.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Week 5 brought me another 8-6 performance, let's hope this week goes better.
NFC
SEA vs CHI-Much to my delight, the Seahawks were on bye week last week which meant I didn’t have to worry about trying to figure them out. Much to my delight this week, they’re playing the Bears, who I have much more faith in following their convincing win without Jay Cutler. I give up for now on trying to figure out Seattle, but I don’t think they’ll be able to muster a win against the Bears this week. Victory Chicago.
NO vs TB- Last week I mentioned how I wanted to pick against the Saints but couldn’t find a team that seemed perhaps good enough. Well, I missed the chance last week, and now find myself with a 3-1 option. Problem is, it’s one of my least favorite 3-1 options out there. Sure, they looked decent against subpar teams, and had to pull an out-of-nowhere win to beat the Bengals, but I’m still not sold. Meanwhile, I have the Saints coming off an embarrassing win. Team I’m not that high on plus picking against a good team that’s going to come ready to play Sunday? Just can’t do it. Saints win.
DET vs NYG- Two weeks ago, I was ready to right the Giants off entirely. Then they upset the Bears and followed that with another phenomenal defensive performance. Meanwhile, the Lions finally got out of the gate with a trounce of the Rams. Calvin Johnson’s playing status is in question, and with the play of the Giant’s defense, Shaun Hill will need to play a great game. Giant’s win.
ATL vs PHI- Looks like Kolb will get the start and the Falcons defense could make it a rough day. The Falcons offense has gotten the job done, but has been far from impressive, save for the Arizona game. They should continue to get the job done against a fairly good, but not shut down Eagles offense. Unless the Eagles offense plays excellent or the Eagles defense really has a dominant game, Falcons win.
DAL vs MIN-Phew, this one looked a lot better 5 weeks ago. On one side, you have the most enjoyable kind of demise possible for your most disliked team: good players but not so much chemistry. On the other side, you have a beat up, wild throwing quarterback with a new toy, but not much consistency to bank on (though their many 3rd and long conversions Monday night were impressive). The winner starts to climb out of a hole, the loser puts themselves in an abyss. As much as I hate it, I have a lot more faith in Romo to Austin being able to make game breaking plays and win. Cowboys drop the Vikings.
AFC
BAL vs NE- The Ravens have yet to step into their preseason potential that made them my Superbowl pick, but they’re definitely a major contender. The Patriots have to adjust to life without the league’s best decoy and having their other receiving options getting cracked down on. They survived a wild game against the Dolphins, but proved very little in the process. Ravens win.
CLE vs PIT- Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the type of quarterback that I’m worried about having a rough first start. He’ll be out ready to play, and tough out some nice plays even if he’s not entirely caught up from missing time. If anyone can stop Peyton Hillis, my money’s on the Steelers defense. Sorry Cleveland, I still can’t seem to pick you. Steelers win.
KC vs HOU- Sigh. Over performing team or team with a few really ugly losses? Kansas City came closer to joining the legit category in my mind with their defense’s play against the Colts, but they won’t join that list until I see something from Matt Cassel. The Texans were victims of the Giant’s defensive surge last week. Important game for both teams. The Chiefs look to rebound from their first loss and avoid starting to become the annual team that drops off after a fast start. The Texans don’t want to drop to 3-3 in a division shared with the Colts and Titans. I’m going to go against my own conventional wisdom, however. Every now and then, you’ve got to have some faith in a team you don’t trust very much. Let’s see if the Chiefs can keep it going. I’ll take Kansas City.
NYJ vs DEN- The Broncos can pass the ball, but no way will they convert such an obscene amount of 3rd and longs which kept the Vikings in the game against the Jets defense. Meanwhile, I’ll keep taking the Jets until they show a serious kink in their armour.
TEN vs JAC- The Jaguars are on a two game winning streak. The Titans are coming off a win against a desperate Dallas team and in the process look like they actually have a passing game to work with, making the Chris Johnson threat even more menacing. It’ll be interesting to see if the Jaguars keep showing a little improvement, but for now, I’m taking the Titans.
INT
MIA vs GB- It’s tough to know how good Miami is. Does losing a game due to blocked kicks and interceptions mean you’ve got some serious problems, or does it mean you had rotten luck? On the other side, I’m starting to wonder if I was a bit too high on the Packers. Their offense hasn’t been what it was last year, and now they’re without Jermichael Finley and Rodgers has a concussion. Could be a wakeup call type game for the Packers as they lose their second in a row. Dolphins win.
SD vs STL- San Diego, San Diego. I keep thinking they’re a great team, then they get upset time and time again. Meanwhile, the Ram’s loss to the Lions and of their best receiver puts their ability to reach .500 highly in doubt, leaving the ugly 3-2 Cardinals and the uglier 2-2 Seahawks as the only threats to a sub .500 team making the playoffs. I’ll keep sticking to my guns, though. Chargers win.
OAK vs SF- You can’t even start to know how much I hate picking this game. Picking the Raiders never works out well, but who could take the 49ers? Especially after the Raiders are coming off an impressive win? Ugh. Yuck. Why schedule maker, why? I guess I’ve got to do something though. Come on, the 49ers have been playing close to some decent teams, right? I’ll give ‘em this last chance, or I very well may pick them to lose the rest of their games.
IND vs WSH- Have the Redskins actually looked good? Every year you hear about the Redskins getting good, but then they end up as an un-team with a bunch of previous big names. But they knocked off the Packers in a game I thought they’d lose to handily. But maybe their taking advantage of some bad play. If so, the Colts are a good remedy to put them in their place. Colts win.
NFC
SEA vs CHI-Much to my delight, the Seahawks were on bye week last week which meant I didn’t have to worry about trying to figure them out. Much to my delight this week, they’re playing the Bears, who I have much more faith in following their convincing win without Jay Cutler. I give up for now on trying to figure out Seattle, but I don’t think they’ll be able to muster a win against the Bears this week. Victory Chicago.
NO vs TB- Last week I mentioned how I wanted to pick against the Saints but couldn’t find a team that seemed perhaps good enough. Well, I missed the chance last week, and now find myself with a 3-1 option. Problem is, it’s one of my least favorite 3-1 options out there. Sure, they looked decent against subpar teams, and had to pull an out-of-nowhere win to beat the Bengals, but I’m still not sold. Meanwhile, I have the Saints coming off an embarrassing win. Team I’m not that high on plus picking against a good team that’s going to come ready to play Sunday? Just can’t do it. Saints win.
DET vs NYG- Two weeks ago, I was ready to right the Giants off entirely. Then they upset the Bears and followed that with another phenomenal defensive performance. Meanwhile, the Lions finally got out of the gate with a trounce of the Rams. Calvin Johnson’s playing status is in question, and with the play of the Giant’s defense, Shaun Hill will need to play a great game. Giant’s win.
ATL vs PHI- Looks like Kolb will get the start and the Falcons defense could make it a rough day. The Falcons offense has gotten the job done, but has been far from impressive, save for the Arizona game. They should continue to get the job done against a fairly good, but not shut down Eagles offense. Unless the Eagles offense plays excellent or the Eagles defense really has a dominant game, Falcons win.
DAL vs MIN-Phew, this one looked a lot better 5 weeks ago. On one side, you have the most enjoyable kind of demise possible for your most disliked team: good players but not so much chemistry. On the other side, you have a beat up, wild throwing quarterback with a new toy, but not much consistency to bank on (though their many 3rd and long conversions Monday night were impressive). The winner starts to climb out of a hole, the loser puts themselves in an abyss. As much as I hate it, I have a lot more faith in Romo to Austin being able to make game breaking plays and win. Cowboys drop the Vikings.
AFC
BAL vs NE- The Ravens have yet to step into their preseason potential that made them my Superbowl pick, but they’re definitely a major contender. The Patriots have to adjust to life without the league’s best decoy and having their other receiving options getting cracked down on. They survived a wild game against the Dolphins, but proved very little in the process. Ravens win.
CLE vs PIT- Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the type of quarterback that I’m worried about having a rough first start. He’ll be out ready to play, and tough out some nice plays even if he’s not entirely caught up from missing time. If anyone can stop Peyton Hillis, my money’s on the Steelers defense. Sorry Cleveland, I still can’t seem to pick you. Steelers win.
KC vs HOU- Sigh. Over performing team or team with a few really ugly losses? Kansas City came closer to joining the legit category in my mind with their defense’s play against the Colts, but they won’t join that list until I see something from Matt Cassel. The Texans were victims of the Giant’s defensive surge last week. Important game for both teams. The Chiefs look to rebound from their first loss and avoid starting to become the annual team that drops off after a fast start. The Texans don’t want to drop to 3-3 in a division shared with the Colts and Titans. I’m going to go against my own conventional wisdom, however. Every now and then, you’ve got to have some faith in a team you don’t trust very much. Let’s see if the Chiefs can keep it going. I’ll take Kansas City.
NYJ vs DEN- The Broncos can pass the ball, but no way will they convert such an obscene amount of 3rd and longs which kept the Vikings in the game against the Jets defense. Meanwhile, I’ll keep taking the Jets until they show a serious kink in their armour.
TEN vs JAC- The Jaguars are on a two game winning streak. The Titans are coming off a win against a desperate Dallas team and in the process look like they actually have a passing game to work with, making the Chris Johnson threat even more menacing. It’ll be interesting to see if the Jaguars keep showing a little improvement, but for now, I’m taking the Titans.
INT
MIA vs GB- It’s tough to know how good Miami is. Does losing a game due to blocked kicks and interceptions mean you’ve got some serious problems, or does it mean you had rotten luck? On the other side, I’m starting to wonder if I was a bit too high on the Packers. Their offense hasn’t been what it was last year, and now they’re without Jermichael Finley and Rodgers has a concussion. Could be a wakeup call type game for the Packers as they lose their second in a row. Dolphins win.
SD vs STL- San Diego, San Diego. I keep thinking they’re a great team, then they get upset time and time again. Meanwhile, the Ram’s loss to the Lions and of their best receiver puts their ability to reach .500 highly in doubt, leaving the ugly 3-2 Cardinals and the uglier 2-2 Seahawks as the only threats to a sub .500 team making the playoffs. I’ll keep sticking to my guns, though. Chargers win.
OAK vs SF- You can’t even start to know how much I hate picking this game. Picking the Raiders never works out well, but who could take the 49ers? Especially after the Raiders are coming off an impressive win? Ugh. Yuck. Why schedule maker, why? I guess I’ve got to do something though. Come on, the 49ers have been playing close to some decent teams, right? I’ll give ‘em this last chance, or I very well may pick them to lose the rest of their games.
IND vs WSH- Have the Redskins actually looked good? Every year you hear about the Redskins getting good, but then they end up as an un-team with a bunch of previous big names. But they knocked off the Packers in a game I thought they’d lose to handily. But maybe their taking advantage of some bad play. If so, the Colts are a good remedy to put them in their place. Colts win.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Well, the first bye week took a toll on my wins total, rather than my losses total, and I went 8-6 last week bringing my season total to 35-27.
NFC (14-8):
STL vs DET- Predicting winners in a match-up of two unbalanced teams is easiest. Picking between two good teams is harder. Picking between two equally bad teams is even harder. And picking between two lower level teams who have shown the ability to play with some good teams but just aren’t all around good or consistent is the hardest. Detriot is 0-4 despite two almost comebacks against the Eagles and Packers and Calvin Johnson is finally involved in the offense which is a good thing for them. The Rams are still a work in progress. The Rams have already doubled last year’s win total (and matched their season win average from the past 3 years), but they are none-the-less still a work in progress and will have their share of downs this year. Detriot won’t go 0-16 again, and their impressive offense should be able to carry them to their first win of the year.
CHI vs CAR- Well, I have now established an example of my upset-picking credibility by calling the Giants to knock the Bears off the pedestal of the unbeatens. So be warned, I may harp on that all year long despite other upset picks falling flat on their faces. To the game, Carolina nearly beat the Saints. However, to me this is another indicator of the Saints taking a step backward, rather than the Panthers showing their mettle. However, Jay Cutler was knocked out of the game with a concussion after 9 first half sacks and has been ruled out of this weeks game. If they can play as well as they did last week, Jay Cutler’s absence helps the Panthers on their way to win #1.
GB vs WSH- Having the opposing team commit a delay of game penalty on 4th and goal inside the 1 after a time out, losing a guaranteed touchdown opportunity because your receiver tripped and fell down after catching the ball, and going scoreless in the second half usually things you can’t count on/survive. Green Bay is a better team than the Eagles (who’s ineptitude versus Washington continues to astound me) and should be a good measuring stick to make a judgment on the quality of the Redskins. Packers win.
NO vs ARI- I keep wanting to pick the Saints to get beat because they just don’t seem to have a molecule of the offensive fire that they had last year. Apart from the Falcons, however, none of their opponents have been close enough to moderately good in order to do so. The Cardinals don’t break the trend. If they break a trend, it will be the trend of the Saints offense looking mediocre. The Cardinals defense has already been carved up for more than 40 points twice in this young season, so expect the Saints offense to break out this week. Maybe that’s what they need to get going. Saints win.
PHI vs SF- I’m not gonna lie. This a game I hate to see come up on the Eagles schedule. The 49ers will figure things out and put together a decent run at some point, even if it’s only a 3 game win streak amidst a 4-12 season. They tend to play the Eagles well, and with an unpredictable breakout due any time now, the Eagles iffy quarterback situation Philly vulnerable. If Vick plays, his health will be questionable, and if Kolb plays, a slow start could put them in a hole that they just can’t climb out of (as we saw last week). I’m much more confident in the Eagles as a team than I am about the 49ers, but nevertheless, this one’s got me worried. A team that shoots themselves in the foot as much as the 49ers eventually realizes it hurts and stops. Nevertheless, I’ll have to take the Eagles.
AFC (10-13):
KC vs IND- The Saints aren’t the only 2010 Super Bowl team to disappoint this season. Looking past the 59 yard Scobbee FG, the Colts had to fight just to tie it up at the end against the Jaguars (they faced a 4th and 10 in their own territory on the final drive). Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off a bye week as the only remaining undefeated team. They’ve been playing great defense and face a great challenge against Peyton Manning and the stacked arsenal of receiving talent that he always seems to have. It’s tempting to pick the Chiefs to keep this surprising run going, especially after having two weeks to focus on the Colts, but after being beaten by the Jaguars, I have faith in the Colts to right ship and be ready to play. Colts win.
JAC vs BUF- A week ago, I might have had to stop and consider this one for a moment, but the Jaguars finally got Maurice Jones-Drew going and pulled a mammoth upset of the Colts. May not be a defining win, but it shows enough to not be concerned about Buffalo.
DEN vs BAL- The Broncos are starting to make me turn my head and consider them as a legit competitive team. However the Ravens really made me turn my head and solidified my opinion of them as a more than legit contender. As we’ve seen so far, it takes a tough, physical, and resilient team to stick it out with the Ravens and I don’t see the Broncos being able to hold up for 60 minutes. Ravens win.
SD vs OAK- Both of San Diego’s losses have been surprise upsets by teams that we didn’t think were very good who relied on special teams returns. The other Chargers performances have been dominating wins. I’d expect a 3-2 record after Sunday regardless of whether the Raiders pull a few kick returns out of nowhere or not. Chargers win.
INT (11-6):
TB vs CIN- Some serious question marks have to be raised about the Bengals after losing to the Browns despite finally getting their passing game going. However, the Browns haven’t been straight up bad, it could be that they just put things together last week. We’ve seen that the Bengals are able to tough out a win like they did against Baltimore, and I’m far from sold on the Buccaneers, so I’m uneasily picking the Bengals to win.
ATL vs CLE- Missed it by that much. Make whatever small gesture you prefer, that’s how close I was to taking the Browns last week. But I didn’t have enough confidence. They browns have been the opposite of the Saints for me, I want to pick them, they’ve shown some potential, but they just can’t seem to find an opponent that I can count on them against. The same holds true this week. Atlanta is rising in the ranks and I’m becoming more and more of a believer. Falcons win.
NYG vs HOU- Unless the Giants defense can muster another 9 first half sacks and knock Matt Shaub out of the game, they’ll have a hard time keeping this offense to 3 points. Texans win.
TEN vs DAL- It’s hard to know what to expect from the Cowboys. A horrid, 0-2 start followed by an impressive win over the Texans; and that was 2 weeks ago. Tony Romo isn’t the safe bet after a bye week that most star quarter backs are, but it could have been a good time for the team to get back on its feet. Meanwhile, I said at the start of the season that while the Titans might not be great, they could be that pesky team that other good teams just can’t seem to put away. I think that could start here. A Dallas team trying to get things together and then having to try and deal with Vince Young scrambling on 3rd down and Chris Johnson making touchdowns out of nothing. Titans win.
MIN vs NYJ- Last year we saw how effective Brett Favre was at chucking the ball into the air and letting a tall, athletic receiver named Sydney Rice out jump the defense. Sydney Rice is now named Randy Moss. However, we also saw at the start of the season how out of sync Brett was with receivers after a late appearance at training camp. It might take a while for the Favre/Moss connection to get going. Meanwhile, the Jets look like a well oiled machine. With their offense being effective, they can go a long way on the defense. I’m not ruling out the Vikings yet, but right now the Jets are far better, New York wins.
NFC (14-8):
STL vs DET- Predicting winners in a match-up of two unbalanced teams is easiest. Picking between two good teams is harder. Picking between two equally bad teams is even harder. And picking between two lower level teams who have shown the ability to play with some good teams but just aren’t all around good or consistent is the hardest. Detriot is 0-4 despite two almost comebacks against the Eagles and Packers and Calvin Johnson is finally involved in the offense which is a good thing for them. The Rams are still a work in progress. The Rams have already doubled last year’s win total (and matched their season win average from the past 3 years), but they are none-the-less still a work in progress and will have their share of downs this year. Detriot won’t go 0-16 again, and their impressive offense should be able to carry them to their first win of the year.
CHI vs CAR- Well, I have now established an example of my upset-picking credibility by calling the Giants to knock the Bears off the pedestal of the unbeatens. So be warned, I may harp on that all year long despite other upset picks falling flat on their faces. To the game, Carolina nearly beat the Saints. However, to me this is another indicator of the Saints taking a step backward, rather than the Panthers showing their mettle. However, Jay Cutler was knocked out of the game with a concussion after 9 first half sacks and has been ruled out of this weeks game. If they can play as well as they did last week, Jay Cutler’s absence helps the Panthers on their way to win #1.
GB vs WSH- Having the opposing team commit a delay of game penalty on 4th and goal inside the 1 after a time out, losing a guaranteed touchdown opportunity because your receiver tripped and fell down after catching the ball, and going scoreless in the second half usually things you can’t count on/survive. Green Bay is a better team than the Eagles (who’s ineptitude versus Washington continues to astound me) and should be a good measuring stick to make a judgment on the quality of the Redskins. Packers win.
NO vs ARI- I keep wanting to pick the Saints to get beat because they just don’t seem to have a molecule of the offensive fire that they had last year. Apart from the Falcons, however, none of their opponents have been close enough to moderately good in order to do so. The Cardinals don’t break the trend. If they break a trend, it will be the trend of the Saints offense looking mediocre. The Cardinals defense has already been carved up for more than 40 points twice in this young season, so expect the Saints offense to break out this week. Maybe that’s what they need to get going. Saints win.
PHI vs SF- I’m not gonna lie. This a game I hate to see come up on the Eagles schedule. The 49ers will figure things out and put together a decent run at some point, even if it’s only a 3 game win streak amidst a 4-12 season. They tend to play the Eagles well, and with an unpredictable breakout due any time now, the Eagles iffy quarterback situation Philly vulnerable. If Vick plays, his health will be questionable, and if Kolb plays, a slow start could put them in a hole that they just can’t climb out of (as we saw last week). I’m much more confident in the Eagles as a team than I am about the 49ers, but nevertheless, this one’s got me worried. A team that shoots themselves in the foot as much as the 49ers eventually realizes it hurts and stops. Nevertheless, I’ll have to take the Eagles.
AFC (10-13):
KC vs IND- The Saints aren’t the only 2010 Super Bowl team to disappoint this season. Looking past the 59 yard Scobbee FG, the Colts had to fight just to tie it up at the end against the Jaguars (they faced a 4th and 10 in their own territory on the final drive). Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off a bye week as the only remaining undefeated team. They’ve been playing great defense and face a great challenge against Peyton Manning and the stacked arsenal of receiving talent that he always seems to have. It’s tempting to pick the Chiefs to keep this surprising run going, especially after having two weeks to focus on the Colts, but after being beaten by the Jaguars, I have faith in the Colts to right ship and be ready to play. Colts win.
JAC vs BUF- A week ago, I might have had to stop and consider this one for a moment, but the Jaguars finally got Maurice Jones-Drew going and pulled a mammoth upset of the Colts. May not be a defining win, but it shows enough to not be concerned about Buffalo.
DEN vs BAL- The Broncos are starting to make me turn my head and consider them as a legit competitive team. However the Ravens really made me turn my head and solidified my opinion of them as a more than legit contender. As we’ve seen so far, it takes a tough, physical, and resilient team to stick it out with the Ravens and I don’t see the Broncos being able to hold up for 60 minutes. Ravens win.
SD vs OAK- Both of San Diego’s losses have been surprise upsets by teams that we didn’t think were very good who relied on special teams returns. The other Chargers performances have been dominating wins. I’d expect a 3-2 record after Sunday regardless of whether the Raiders pull a few kick returns out of nowhere or not. Chargers win.
INT (11-6):
TB vs CIN- Some serious question marks have to be raised about the Bengals after losing to the Browns despite finally getting their passing game going. However, the Browns haven’t been straight up bad, it could be that they just put things together last week. We’ve seen that the Bengals are able to tough out a win like they did against Baltimore, and I’m far from sold on the Buccaneers, so I’m uneasily picking the Bengals to win.
ATL vs CLE- Missed it by that much. Make whatever small gesture you prefer, that’s how close I was to taking the Browns last week. But I didn’t have enough confidence. They browns have been the opposite of the Saints for me, I want to pick them, they’ve shown some potential, but they just can’t seem to find an opponent that I can count on them against. The same holds true this week. Atlanta is rising in the ranks and I’m becoming more and more of a believer. Falcons win.
NYG vs HOU- Unless the Giants defense can muster another 9 first half sacks and knock Matt Shaub out of the game, they’ll have a hard time keeping this offense to 3 points. Texans win.
TEN vs DAL- It’s hard to know what to expect from the Cowboys. A horrid, 0-2 start followed by an impressive win over the Texans; and that was 2 weeks ago. Tony Romo isn’t the safe bet after a bye week that most star quarter backs are, but it could have been a good time for the team to get back on its feet. Meanwhile, I said at the start of the season that while the Titans might not be great, they could be that pesky team that other good teams just can’t seem to put away. I think that could start here. A Dallas team trying to get things together and then having to try and deal with Vince Young scrambling on 3rd down and Chris Johnson making touchdowns out of nothing. Titans win.
MIN vs NYJ- Last year we saw how effective Brett Favre was at chucking the ball into the air and letting a tall, athletic receiver named Sydney Rice out jump the defense. Sydney Rice is now named Randy Moss. However, we also saw at the start of the season how out of sync Brett was with receivers after a late appearance at training camp. It might take a while for the Favre/Moss connection to get going. Meanwhile, the Jets look like a well oiled machine. With their offense being effective, they can go a long way on the defense. I’m not ruling out the Vikings yet, but right now the Jets are far better, New York wins.
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