Week 12

8-2: Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Giants
7-3: Bills, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Panthers
6-4: Chargers, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Eagles
5-5: Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars, Texans, Jets, Bengals, Rams, Buccaneers
4-6: Broncos, Browns, 49ers, Redskins, Cowboys
3-7: Seahawks, Patriots, Bears

Currently sitting at 89-71 after a 10-6 week 11.
NFC (36-24)
NO vs DAL- This one scared me, but the Saints won (1-0 on Thanksgiving).
GB vs ATL- Could go either way. This game is going to determine who gets to be called the NFC’s top team in conversation VS Philly (should they win). Both teams are playing great, great football. So without clear reason I can see, I’ll roll with the Packers and their better defense. Packers win.
MIN vs WSH- Jason Garrettesque revival for the Vikings? We’ll see. But I’m not going to bet on it. Redskins win with one of their unpredictable good games, and lose with an unpredictable bad game. I’ll say Redskins win.
PHI vs CHI- Another defensive test for the Michael Vick offense. The Eagles defense, however, is among the top teams in the league in INTs and go up against Jay Cutler himself. Whatever the Bears defense can muster, the Eagles defense counters. Eagles win.
SF vs ARI- Two bad NFC West teams. I like the 49ers upside a whole lot more, however. 49ers win.

AFC 30-26
CIN vs NYJ- Jets won handily (2-0 on Thanksgiving)
PIT vs BUF- Saw the Bills described as “Red Hot.” Even so, I’m not buying them in this game. The most interesting thing here is seeing what controversial hit/call/whatever will have a member of the Steelers saying something ridiculous about during the week. Steelers win.
TEN vs HOU- Houston is reeling. The Titans are falling. Biggest adjustment for the Titans to make, with Young out at QB, but fortunately that happens against the Texans defense. Titans win.
MIA vs OAK- No idea what to do with the Raiders. So I might as well go with my previous Raiders picking strategy, as well as a Miami team that I still like, despite them being down to their 3rd QB. And they’re coming off a Thursday Night extended week of rest. Dolphins win.
SD vs IND- Really good game here. Chargers are fighting to get back into things before another couple losses proves them too late. They’ve historically played the Colts well, but both teams look fairly different this year. Colts win.

INT 22-22
NE vs DET- Patriots took advantage of a plethora of mistakes that characterize a typical Lions team (3-0 on Thanksgiving!)
CAR vs CLE- Finally, a game the Browns can win easily. They’ve had a rough, rough schedule. Browns win.
JAC vs NYG- Giants get back to their winning ways after a two week hiatus. The Jaguars are doing surprisingly well, but the Giants defense will be too much. Giants win.
KC vs SEA- Dwayne Bowe is absolutely on fire right now, bringing some heat to an otherwise iffy offense. Chiefs win.
STL vs DEN- Really hard to pick the Broncos. They could bust out a big offensive performance any time, but their defense is quite lacking. Rams win.
TB vs BAL- The Bucs just haven’t beaten anyone yet. I usually don’t like that argument, but in this case it seems fitting. And the Ravens are just the better team. Ravens win.

Thanksgiving Picks

NE vs DET- Bad defenses and good offenses for both teams, but the Patriots are much, much better at pulling off the Madden style team. One of the more exciting Lions Thanksgiving day games we've seen in a while, but no change in the result. Patriots win.
NO vs DAL- We get to see the revved up Cowboys go against a good team now, although it might be skewed by both teams playing on short rest. The Saints have finally gotten things going, and the Cowboys look to make a real statement. Until they do, I'm no believer. Saints win.
CIN vs NYJ- I'm not sure whether it'll take a miracle for the Bengals to actually win a game, or whether it'll take a miracle for them to not start winning down the stretch. Either way, they've been a highly entertaining bad team. New York is really looking good, however. Jets win.

Horrid, horrid week 10 going 4-10, and seeing all my 7-1 teams drop to 7-2, and already off to a bad start after having picked the Dolphins to beat the Bears. Now that bye weeks are finished, the “By Picking Record” is a little clearer:
By Picking Record
7-2: Bills, Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Giants
6-3: Packers, Saints, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Panthers, Falcons
5-4: Chargers, Jaguars, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Buccaneers, Eagles
4-5: Raiders, Chiefs, Texans, Jets, Browns, Rams, 49ers, Redskins
3-6: Broncos, Patriots, Bears, Cowboys
2-7: Seahawks

NFC
DET vs DAL- For all the promise the Lions have shown, they haven’t shown the ability to win. Meanwhile, the Cowboys actually looked alright last week. But even last week their defense was shaky, so expect a big day for Calvin “Megatron” Johnson, no matter who is throwing him the ball. In a high scoring game, the Cowboys win.
GB vs MIN- The Vikings are simply going down in icicles. Meanwhile, the Packers seem to have cured or at least patched up some of their earlier problems. Packers win.
TB vs SF- Troy Smith is the kind of guy I love seeing get a chance. Everyone labeled him as a college only quarterback and now he’s stuck around in the NFL long enough to win a starting job and look pretty good while doing it. The Buccaneers have also been good but haven’t had any statement wins yet, so I’ll roll with Troy Smith and the upset. 49ers win.
SEA vs NO- Finally, a Seahawks game that I might be able to get right. The Saints are looking better and their Steelers beat down a few weeks back boosts my confidence level in that a lot. Saints win.
ATL vs STL- The Falcons might not be the number one team in the league like ESPN’s power rankings say, but they’re still better than the Rams. By a lot. Falcons win.
NYG vs PHI- Tough game for sure. The Giants suffered the NFC’s top team syndrome last week, keeping up the title’s tradition of losing. The Eagles are playing as good as I’ve seen them in all my years as an Eagles fan. And they happen to have the hottest player in the whole league. Eagles win.

AFC
BUF vs CIN- The Bengals have been so close in a lot of games against good teams. Now that they’re basically eliminated from the playoffs, I’m sure they’ll start doing better. And the Bills, though Buffalo hasn’t looked entirely putrid, are still a good place to start. Bengals win.
HOU vs NYJ- The Jets are in the top echelon of NFL teams right now, and the Texans are reeling after a hail mary loss to the Jags. Jets defense can slow down the Texans offense, and the Texans defense shouldn’t be much of an obstacle for Mark Sanchez. Jets win.
OAK vs PIT- Finally someone to stop this ugly Raiders train. Maybe it’s just hating the Raiders, maybe I just can’t stand seeing a team win when their head coach looks like someone who’s greatest life achievement would be winning a bar fight. Steelers win.
CLE vs JAC- Finally a bit of a breather for the Browns, though the Jaguars have been coming around and aren’t nearly as bad as we thought they were a few weeks ago. If the Browns keep up the intensity that they’ve had over the last 4 weeks, however, it’ll be a tough, pounding victory. Browns win.
IND vs NE- High scoring game. Which means very unpredictable game. Which means I’ll go with a fan pick. Colts win.
DEN vs SD- It would be wrong to say that the Chargers have finally got things rolling. It’s just that now they’re still rolling and their special teams haven’t singlehandedly lost them their past few games. The Broncos had a field day vs the Chiefs, but they face a bigger monster this week. Chargers win.

INT
CHI vs MIA (I picked the ‘Phins. Bears won)
WAS vs TEN- I wouldn’t pick the Redskins to beat very many teams. Randy Moss gets better in his second game with the Titans. Tennessee wins.
ARI vs KC- The Chiefs finally get back on the right track against a bad Cardinals team and buckle up for the stretch to try to live up to the promise they showed early in the season. Chiefs win.
BAL vs CAR- Deangelo Williams could have rebounded from a bad season and made the Panthers competitive. Instead, he hit the IR. Ravens win.

Thursday night pick

Time to get a quick pick in before the Thursday night game.
CHI vs MIA- The Bears are the one of the least respected 6-3 teams I can remember. The ESPN power ranking has them around 19 behind a plethora of 5-4, 4-4, and maybe even a 4-5 team or two, while there are only 3 or so teams with records better than 6-3. This game should be an intersting matchup with two strong defenses against two mediocre, though at times very capable offenses. The Dolphins were dropped down to their 3rd stringer, yet Tyler Thigpen has played quite well in his previous NFL showings. Given the Dolphins offense that makes due without any huge stars, he'll be fine. The game comes down to the Dolphins needing a win to avoid falling to 5-5 in a very tough division with the Jets and Patriots. Dolphins win.

75-55 on the season. I've said before that my NFC picks are much more reliable than my AFC picks. Look at the 'By Picking Record' section below. 7 or the 8 top teams are NFC teams, however, 4 of the 6 bottam teams are also NFC teams. This just goes to show that when it comes to my picks, NFC is best with a few bad apples. All but 3 AFC teams fall into the "mid range" of 5-3 to 4-5. So I'm a little bit better than flipping a coin, it would seem.

By Picking Record
7-1: Bills, Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Giants
6-2: Falcons
6-3: Packers, Saints
5-3: Jaguars, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Ravens, Steelers, Panthers
5-4: Chargers
4-4: 49ers, Rams, Chiefs, Texans, Jets, Browns, Bengals, Buccaneers, Eagles
4-5: Raiders
3-5: Broncos, Redskins, Patriots, Bears, Cowboys
2-6: Seahawks

Week 10
NFC
MIN vs CHI(+4)- Finally saw some life out of the Vikings at the end of last week’s game. Meanwhile, the Bears fought off the most valiant 0-8 team ever. I think the Bears will turn a few heads yet before the season’s over, but only for those of us who are ruling them out. Vikings win.
CAR vs TB(+2)- Tampa Bay lost a close one to the Falcons, adding to the NFC trend of the recently crowned favorite losing. But Carolina is a good was away from being good; they’re probably worse than the Bills despite their one win. Buccaneers win.
SEA vs ARI(+2)- The Cardinals are showing some fight, although they collapsed at the end of the Minnesota game. Coming off a terrible game, I once again have no idea what the Seahawks will look like. In a game that has playoff significance due to the greatness that is the NFC west, the Cardinals pull a slight upset. Cardinals win
DAL vs NYG(+4)- Cowboys stink. Giants surprisingly the best team in the NFC at this point. Thought that title hasn’t been worn well by its previous owners, it’s the Cowboys. Giants win.
STL vs SF(0)- In another game that by all means shouldn’t have playoff significance, but does for at least the Rams, and I suppose does for the 2-6 49ers who are still only 2 games out of first place, the 49ers try to get back into things. Bye week for the Rams, who crack .500 by taking care of business over San Fransisco. Rams win.
PHI vs WSH(-2)- Coming off a signature, though far from flawless, victory over the Colts, the Eagles are a much more tested team than they were during the last meeting. Meanwhile in Washington, McNabb is less trusted by his coaches than he was by Philadelphia fans. Two teams going in entirely different directions than they were last time. Eagles win.

AFC
NYJ vs CLE(0)- Wow, wanted to pick the Browns so much last week. They are, without a doubt, the team that I’ve wanted to pick the most while being unable to do so for various reasons. And here we are again, with a Jets team that matches up well against the Browns, yet me wanting to pick the Browns all the while. Colt McCoy has been impressive, very impressive and here’s another great test. We know that Peyton Hillis is going to beast his way for yardage against any defense. Slowly but surely, the Browns offense is coming to life, as is their defense. I’m playing against the odds, but I’m going for 3 huge Cleveland upsets in 3 weeks. Browns win.
TEN vs MIA(+4)- I might as well flip a coin. Tennessee is in for either a jolt with Randy Moss’s presence, or a slow and steady crumble. Moss and Britt on the same field down the road? Scary. But so was Palmer/T.O./Ochocinco. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had an understandable down game against the Ravens. I still like the Dolphins, however. Dolphins win.
CIN vs IND(+2)- The Bengals just can’t do anything right, at least not when it counts. Are they the worst, very competitive team I’ve ever seen? Quite possibly. Colts win.
HOU vs JAC(+2)- The Jaguars have been outscored by almost 100 points in their 4 losses. I don’t think their offense can keep up in a real shoot out. If the Texans can get their offense firing on all 11 cylinders, they could simply outrun the Jaguars. Texans win.
KC vs DEN(-2)- Just hard to pick the Broncos right now. And equally hard to pick against the Chiefs, even if they did lose a close game to Oakland. Chiefs win.
NE vs PIT(0)- I thought this game would be where everyone realized that the Patriots weren’t worth putting at the top of the of the NFL power rankings. As it turns out, that was last week’s game. This week’s is to convince all the homers and Tom Brady lovers. Steelers win.

INT
BAL vs ATL(+6)- Flacco vs Ryan, and on the national spotlight. It could go either way if the Falcons play their top game. The Ravens continue to impress me a lot, and the Falcons are still a bit shaky in my eyes. Ravens win.
DET vs BUF(+12)- Well, I could try this whole Buffalo thing again, but the Lions are my other team that I believe could really be an upset specialist. Overall, they have better talent and have played some good teams down to the wire, including the Jets last week. Lions win.

Currently sitting at 67-50 after a disapointing 7-6 week 8. The following is my record picking by team, and the numbers in parentheses are the number of games above or below .500 in games involving those two teams. Buffalo is standing strong as my last perfect team and the Seahawks kept up their trouble making, remaining at one win.

7-0: Bills
6-1: Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, Giants
5-2: Colts
5-3: Jaguars, Titans, Packers, Saints
4-3: Steelers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Browns, Ravens, Eagles, Panthers, Buccaneers
4-4: Raiders, Chargers, 49ers, Rams
3-4: Bengals, Jets, Patriots, Texans, Bears
3-5: Broncos, Redskins
2-5: Cowboys
1-6: Seahawks


NFC (25-16)
TB vs ATL(+6)- On one side, the Buccaneers are turning into the late surprise team of the year, slowing showing the ability to win. On the other, a Falcons team that we know is talented, but is much less consistent. It’s hard to feel at all comfortable with a team that wins a shoot out with the Bengals. Their defense, which was playing well earlier has looked highly suspect recently. I think the Falcons can pull things together and make a playoff run, but as of week 9, Buccaneers win.
NO vs CAR(+3)- The Saints haven’t been a Super Bowl team, but after their Steelers beat down, they’ve shown they still have some hop on their step. Possible let down game potential here, but no worries from my end. Saints win.
ARI vs MIN(+10)- Will the Cardinals get back on the ways of looking terrible, yet winning, or will they just continue to look bad? I have no idea what the Vikings will look like, with Favre as injured as any player I can ever remember. This one’s tough, but I’ll take the underperformer to get things going rather than the previous over performer to return to form. Vikings win.
NYG vs SEA(0)- The Giants running game is beast, and they’re looking really good. After the Eagles collapse against Tennessee, I’m confidently calling them the best team in the NFC east (and quite possibly the NFC) for the time being. And coming off a bye, it would take a major surprise by the Seahawks for them to lose. However, given my past picking record, maybe that’s a good reason to pick the Seahawks. Giants win.
DAL vs GB(-1)- I have finally rid myself of the feeling that the Cowboys will eventually get things together. Meanwhile, the Packers majorly got things together. Packers win.

AFC (22-17)
NE vs CLE(0)- Really tempted to pick the upset here, however, picking an upset when the team’s previous game was a monumental upset usually isn’t a good idea. An upset is an upset because the one team isn’t very good, and it’s usually too much to ask for them to put two great games together back to back. But the Patriots are possibly the most suspect one loss team in memory, so it could go either way. I’ll take my gut and say Patriots win.
MIA vs BAL(+2)- As high as I am on Miami, this will be a tough match up as they’ve had a rough post bye week, AFC North stretch. Baltimore, meanwhile, is fresh off bye week and looking to capitalize on the Steelers loss last week. Ravens gut this one out. Baltimore wins.
SD vs HOU(-1)- The demise of the Texans could be imminent. They have the defense for an explosive offensive team, but that offense has taken its fair share of off days. Expect a field day for the Chargers offense. The Chargers defense has been equally inept at times, of course, so there could be a lot of lightning in this game. I’ll take the Chargers to come out on top.
KC vs OAK(+1)- Okay, someone’s got to stop this Oakland run (though if the Raiders do decent, that means that their first round pick, which the Patriots have, will be lower. And I’m in favor of not handing Belicheck easy talent). Kansas City should be able to slow down the Raiders offense (did I just say that?), which again puts the ball in the hands of Matt Cassel and the offense. That is scary, but they’ve done a decent job recently. Chiefs win.
PIT vs CIN(0)- The Steelers will be ticked and take it out on the Bengals receivers who are more focused on the T.Ocho Show. Steelers win.

INT (19-16)
CHI vs BUF(+6)- Two over time losses against good teams? I can’t believe what I’m saying, but here it goes: I’M SOLD ON THE BUFFALO BILLS!!! Maybe not for long, but after last week’s game, I thought to myself, “This team isn’t 0-16 caliber. Unless they’re playing a really top notch team next week, I’m taking them.” I fully expected to back out of that commitment once I saw the match up and thought about it, but the Bears are the perfect team to lose to the Bills. All it takes is a little Jay Cutler anti-magic to take them from a competitive team to a bad one. On top of that, other bad teams would think “here’s a game we can win” when playing the Bills. A team like the Bears simply doesn’t want to be the team that loses to the Bills. Bills are the last team to get their first win.
NYJ vs DET(+4)- The Lions are another team that has very much improved from their colossal ineptitude the past two seasons. The Jets, however, are still a good defensive team, even if they are coming off an offensive goose egg. Could be a very competitive game, but I’ll go with the Jets.
IND vs PHI(+4)- In my Eagles experience, this is not a game they win. 1) They usually don’t play well against the AFC. 2) While their defense has the knack of absolutely shutting down star running backs from time to time, shutting down star QBs/passing attacks isn’t as common of an occurrence. 3) Should the defense hold up and have a lead going into the fourth quarter, the afore mentioned star quarterbacks have a way of picking apart their defense and getting back into the game. I expect Vick to play well and the Eagles offense is a good matchup against the Colts defense, but ultimately, the Colts come out on top.