The Other Side of the Coin

Title weekend

2011-01-21T13:29:00.000-08:00

Packers vs Bears- The Bears are one of those teams that you just can't figure out why they are good, but somehow, they keep being good and beating good teams. The Packers are a team you gotta love with a good defense and amazing passing game. It'll be a good game, but I'm going to have to stick with the prototypical late season fire catching team in Green Bay.

Jets vs Steelers- The Jets beat the Steelers not very long ago and aren't backing down to anyone at this point. You couldn't ask for a more confident 6th seed. But the Steelers have been money in the playoffs as of late. It's hard to bet against them. But my playoff picks have been so bad, that I might as well try something unconventional and take the team that has already posted 2 big playoff upsets. Jets win.

Divisional Round

2011-01-15T08:46:00.000-08:00

Steelers vs Ravens: A typical flip a coin game. It's hind of hard to see either team losing this game. I'm going to have to take the Ravens to win, though. If I'm the Ravens, I focus on avoiding turnovers, and I should be fine. Ravens win.

Falcons vs Packers: The more I think back to the Eagles/Packers game, the less I am impressed with the Packers and the more it seems that the Eagles just choked it away. The Packers could very easily make this a game, however. But I like the Falcons to win this one.

Bears vs Seahawks: Any chance I would have given the Seahawks was lost when I saw Pete Carroll's post game comment after beating the Saints. He said something to the tune of, "Next week, we're going to shock the world a second time." Someone's trying to pump the "nobody believes in us" card for all it's worth. A team that really believes that nobody believes in them doesn't go out making all kinds of predictions and guarentees. They do there thing, then smile and nod after the game. I think they'll make it a good game, and I don't have a whole lot of faith in the Bears to not completely collapse, but Chicago wins.

Patriots vs Jets: If the Jets lose in any way other than a last minute field goal, their mouths should be duct taped shut for the rest of their lives. Of course, the Patriots haven't been taking the high ground either. It's games like this where you wish that neither team would be able to have the pride of backing up their rediculous talk. Patriots win

Playoffs round 1

2011-01-08T18:59:00.000-08:00

This is coming in a bit late and the Seahawks have already pulled a shocking upset. But no matter, I would have picked the Saints anyway. 0-1.
Colts - Jets: I just don't trust the Jets. And I don't like a team that I can't trust against Peyton in the playoffs. Colts win.

Chiefs - Ravens: Ravens definitely have the upper hand. But the Chiefs are a scrappy team. Not a very good one, but scrappy. Nevertheless, if the Ravens can get the run/pass ratio down and if Ray Rice can get yards against the Chiefs defense, they should win. Nice year for the Chiefs, but bye-bye.

Eagles - Packers: As an Eagles fan, I want to believe that they should pull this one off. As an analyst, I have absolutely no idea who the favorite is. The week 1 matchup sheds absolutely no light on this game. Vick only played the 2nd half, and neither team had really game planned for him, so he just ran around and made plays. Not so this time. The Eagles are trying to figure out how to protect Vick and keep the offense rolling, and the Packers are spending every ounce of their game planning working on the most Vick-proof defense. On the other side of the ball, the Packers offense hasn't been the explosive one we expected going into this season. It's still pretty good though. If the Eagles front can hold up against the run allowing them to focus on the pass, they should keep the Packers in check. It should be a great game. I'm going to go homer on this one and take the Eagles.

week 17

2011-01-01T09:36:00.000-08:00

Time for crap shoot week 17 where you never know which teams will be quitting or which will go for the win. 141-99 on the year
By Picking Record
13-2: Giants
11-4: Lions, Saints, Falcons, Panthers
10-5: Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Vikings, Cardinals, Buccaneers
9-6: Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Colts, Bills, Packers, Rams, Eagles
8-7: Chargers, Dolphins, Bengals, Seahawks
7-8: Broncos, Texans, Patriots, Browns, 49ers, Redskins, Cowboys
6-9: Jets, Bears

NFC
CAR vs ATL- With the Falcons needing a win to secure the 1 seed (though a Saints loss would also do it), they'll be playing this game, at least until they've completely distanced themselves from the Panthers
MIN vs DET- Lions ride this late season run all the way to the finish. Lions win
TB vs NO- At some point in this game, the Saints look at the scoreboard and see "Falcons 31 - Panthers 6" and realize they have no shot at a 1 seed. Then they sit starters and the Buccaneers, who are fighting for a shot at the playoffs, come back to win.
NYG vs WAS- The Giants are a mess right now. But surely they won't fall victim to the Redskins and Rex Grossman....will they? Giants win.
DAL vs PHI- Eagles give Kolb the start, possibly one of the best backups in the league. The question is, who else gets the rest? The more, the better. I look for a good defensive showing in this game against Stephen McGee (when does someone with that last name ever become a good NFL QB? Come one, haha). Even though the Cowboys are the sensible pick against the shut it down Eagles, my gut keeps telling me that they will still pull this one off. Eagles win.
ARI vs SF- Coin flips. 49ers win.
CHI vs GB- Chicago rests starters after outside chance at a 1 seed is lost, thanks to the Eagles Tuesday Night loss clinching them the 2. Thus Green Bay wins, gets into the playoffs, and eliminates the Giants. So the Philadelphia Eagles will have killed the Giants 3 times this season: The 2 defeats, and the improbable loss to Minnesota which allowed the Bears to tank a game that the Giants needed them to win.
STL vs SEA- Head: Rams win. Much better team. Heart: Seahawks win. I'd love a 7-9 team that ESPN currently has ranked 26th in the league to make the playoffs. I just don't think it'll happen though. Rams win

AFC
PIT vs CLE- Really pulling for the Browns to give the Ravens the 1 seed, unfortunately, the Steelers take care of business. Steelers win
OAK vs KC- Chiefs have the division clinched, but still have enough left in the tank to take care of them Raiders.
MIA vs NE- Patriots sit Brady after a few plays, and Dolphins win, becoming the first NFL team to go 7-1 on the road and 1-7 at home. Congrats!
BUF vs NYJ- No matter who they start or sit, the Jets outman the Bills.
CIN vs BAL- Since the Browns usually keep the Steelers close before losing, the Ravens will keep playing this game 'till the end. Ravens win.
JAC vs HOU- No Jones-Drew. No lucky series of events to make the playoffs. But the still pull off the win over the crumbled Texans. Jaguars win
TEN vs IND- Win and in for Peyton Manning. Anyone wanna pick the Titans in that scenario? Colts win
SD vs DEN- The years dissappointment gets one final respect win by slowing down Tebow's little streak. Chargers win.

week 16

2010-12-22T10:24:00.000-08:00

12-2: Giants
11-3: Lions
10-4: Vikings, Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers
9-5: Chiefs, Jaguars, Ravens, Steelers, Rams, Buccaneers, Eagles
8-6: Raiders, Chargers, Titans, Colts, Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Packers
7-7: Broncos, Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, Cowboys, Redskins
6-8: Jets, Patriots, Browns, Bears

NFC
DAL vs ARI- The Cowboys have finally become what I thought they would be before the season. An incredibly competitive team. Their defense, however, is a far cry from what I expected. Nevertheless, the Cardinals offense poses minimal threat, either on offense or defense. Cowboys win.
SF vs STL- The hopes of seeing a sub .500 team in the playoffs are increasing every week with the Rams or Seahawks having to win out to reach 8-8. Rams seem to be sliding a little bit, I’ll take the 49ers to win.
NYG vs GB- Whether it’s allowing Desean Jackson to return a punt after fumbling, or allowing a right guard to return a kickoff 71 yards to the 4, these special teams units have some improving to do. Maybe they’ll just go for it on 4th down. Rodgers is back, so Packers win.
SEA vs TB- Surprisingly, both teams are fighting for the playoffs. I’ll take the Buccaneers to rebound from a Detroit surprise. Tampa Bay wins.
MIN vs PHI- Last week I said this game presented the potential for a letdown by the young Eagles players. I didn’t realize how bad the Vikings really are. Eagles win.
NO vs ATL- Would have been a colossal match up had the Saints won last week, now it’s a matter of seeing which team folds more, now that it doesn’t matter much and they could easily meet in the playoffs. Saints win.

AFC
TEN vs KC- Chiefs trying to hold onto the division. Their defense steps up against the Chris Johnson attack. Chiefs win.
NE vs BUF- The Bills are a really tantalizing upset pick…but I’m not crazy. Patriots win.
BAL vs CLE- In their last meeting, Peyton Hillis ran wild. The Ravens need to keep winning if they want a shot at the division, however, so they’ll take care of business.
HOU vs DEN- A good scout team defense for Tim Tebow to practice against, but Matt Shaub wins the shoot out. Texans win.
SD vs CIN- The Bengals finally won another game. But the Chargers are driving for the playoffs. Chargers win.
IND vs OAK- The stretch run will bring the best out of Manning. The Oakland defense that had a hard time stopping Tim Tebow last week will have their hands much fuller with Peyton. Colts win.

INT
CAR vs PIT- This is the “get out of jail free” card equivalent. Automatic win for the Steelers.
WAS vs JAC- If the Jaguars can stop Rex Grossman, they keep their playoff hopes alive. That doesn’t sound so bad, does it? Jaguars win.
DET vs MIA- Detroit on a mini roll, the Dolphins sliding. What does this mean? Dolphins win of course. I rode the Lions momentum to a correct upset pick last week, but no more. Dolphins are a better all around team and playing for respect. Miami wins.
NYJ vs CHI- After seeing them take down the Steelers, I’m taking the Jets, and hoping they don’t have one of their random flunk games.

2010-12-19T09:28:00.000-08:00

123-85 on the season, here’s how it looks by team:
11-2: Giants
10-3: Lions, Cardinals, Saints, Panthers
9-4: Steelers, Ravens, Vikings, Falcons
8-5: Chiefs, Jaguars, Titans, Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, Rams, Buccaneers, Eagles
7-6: Raiders, Chargers, Texans, Colts, Packers
6-7: Broncos, Jets, Browns, 49ers, Seahawks, Cowboys, Redskins
5-8: Patriots, Bears,

NFC (49-29)
WSH vs DAL- Benching McNabb for Grossman is never a good sign, no matter what your take on McNabb is. The Redskins are a team that’s season is eroded. Meanwhile the Cowboys have been playing better, being a competitive team even in losses to the Saints and Eagles. Cowboys win.
DET vs TB- Detroit coming off a defensive win (I absolutely did not see a low scoring game coming there, much less 10 total points), and the Bucs coming off a victory over the Redskins place holder. The Buccaneers are still contending, and I signed off all faith in the Lions last week. Yet, going off of last week’s performances, I’m taking the Lions to win.
ARI vs CAR- Anyone over the Panthers, and Arizona showed that they’re capable of beating other bad teams last week. Cardinals win.
PHI vs NYG- Another possible let down game for the young Philadelphia Eagles, though I’m more worried about the Vikings next week if the Eagles win here, in terms of not showing up for the game. In their last meeting, both teams went away feeling like they easily could have won by at least two scores. Whoever can do a better job at cutting out mistakes and coming through in the clutch (I’ll take Vick over Eli here) gets the win. Another hard fought NFC East game, I’ll take the Eagles.
ATL vs SEA- Atlanta is 11-2, yet only has a one game lead in their division. No way they can afford to take their foot off the gas. Falcons win.
CHI vs MIN- Good bounce back opportunity for the Bears as the Vikings QB situation has gone from shaky to…I don’t even know what other quarterback they have if Favre doesn’t go (Jackson is on the IR). Bears win
AFC (42-33)
CLE vs CIN- In their earlier matchup, I think I remember saying that I wasn’t quite ready to bet on the Browns in this matchup. Now I’m more than ready, especially with Colt McCoy back at quarterback. Browns win.
HOU vs TEN- Two teams, two lost seasons. Two teams, one team with a lot more talent. Texans win.
JAC vs IND- The Colts have certainly not looked like themselves this season, especially Manning, but expect they to pass all over a Jaguars secondary that looked bad against the Raiders. Colts win.
BUF vs MIA- Could go either way. The Bills are playing for some respect and Dolphins are a pretty good football team. Dolphins win.
NYJ vs PIT- Will the Jets realize that they haven’t made the playoffs yet? Will they bounce back from a couple awful games? Will Santonio Holmes be fired up to scorch his former team? Or will the Steelers keep being the Steelers? Both the Steelers and Ravens face quality teams who are trying to catch their division leader and improve their playoff spot, making these two games crucial in deciding the AFC North. This game could be really good, but as of now, the Jets are shaky. Steelers win.
DEN vs OAK- The Broncos have lost the only remaining good part of their game-the passing offense. Raiders win.
IND (31-25)
SF vs SD- Chargers won!
KC vs STL- Iffy if Matt Cassell can go, but the Rams offense is much less formidable than that of the Chargers, so the Chiefs defense should be able to win this game. Chiefs win.
NO vs BAL- The other of the important AFC North games, the Saints have been on fire since a mediocre start. Meanwhile, the Ravens have showed a few kinks in their armor. The biggest drive to win, however, belongs to the Ravens, who have a much better chance of catching the Steelers than the Saints do of overtaking Atlanta. Ravens win.
GB vs NE- Looking for a statement game from Green Bay? Here’s a chance, though a statement it sure would be. The Patriots have looked as good as I can remember since the days of going for it on 4th down up by 40 to try to win by 50. Patriots win

thursday night week 15

2010-12-16T14:42:00.000-08:00

SD vs SF- Two teams that are one game out of first place...makes you think they're about the same...but sorry San Fransisco. The competition cooling down in the race for the NFC West title, I'm hoping to see a team with a really, really bad record make the playoffs...and get the 4th seed. Just to show the NFL how bad their seeding system is (though at least there's actually a playoff). Meanwhile, I'm cheering on the Chargers to make the playoffs after that sloppy start. Basically, the Chargers are better, though with these two teams, you never quite know. Chargers win

Week 14

2010-12-09T15:41:00.000-08:00

For anyone who might still be reading this, can i remind you that I said the Browns/Dolphins game had the greatest chance of being a close one out of any game this season? I think a game winning FG with 4 seconds left counts as close.

11-5 the last two weeks, here are the picks:
NFC (43-28)
GB vs DET- My time expecting the Lions to step up and win a small handfull of games is over. A defense that wouldn't scare a European football team and an offense that has to pass all the time isn't going to do much. Packers win.
NYG vs MIN- Sydney Rice is back to phenomenal, make-something-great-out-of-a-brainless-toss-into-the-air play, and, am I actually saying this, Travaris Jackson might bring some spark back to the offense if Favre doesn't hobble his way onto the field to extend his consecutive games streak. But the Giants are too good of an overall team to get sniped by the Vikings. Giants win.
TB vs WSH- If you plan on making the playoffs without beating any plus .500 teams, you better win games like this. Buccaneers win.
ATL vs CAR- Why bother talking about it? ESPN's #1 vs #32 team.
SEA vs SF- Neither team has any measurable consistency, but again, I like the bigger upside of the 49ers. San Fransisco wins.
STL vs NO- The Rams haven't done any damage against winning teams, like a poor man's Buccaneers, and the Saints are on a roll. I'd look for the outside chance of this being a very interesting game, as Sam Bradford has played great for a rookie quarterback. Saints win.
PHI vs DAL- I don't care how bad one of the teams might be. I don't care that the Cowboys win over the Colts and near victory over the Saints were reliant almost entirely off stupid mistakes by the opponent (and overcoming quite a few of their own). Eagles Cowboys is never a brush off game. What I like is a Micahel Vick who has shown more ability to overcome adversity and bring his best game in the 4th quarter when it matters than Donovan did in his entire career. What I don't like is a Miles Austin that has a knack for tearing apart the Eagles secondary, even with Asante Samuel, and a Dallas defense that seems to be regaining a bit of its swagger from last year. Even though the Eagles are hands down the better team right now, all bets are off in matchups like these. Nevertheless, I'll take the Eagles to win.

AFC (37-31)
IND vs TEN- The Colts have been looking shaky as of late, but the Titans are no threatening opponent either. As long as manning doesn't throw another 4 interceptions, they should be fine.
CLE vs BUF- If this was college football, the Browns would be much higher in the ranks thanks to strength of schedule wins. If they can avoid lowering their play to an inferior team that has been turning a few heads as of late, they keep the positives building to take into next year. Browns win.
CIN vs PIT- How will the Bengals manage to lose this one? Steelers win.
OAK vs JAC- Bigger surprise: Chiefs or Jaguars? I say Jaguars, not because I thought that the Cheifs would be better, but there's no way that I would have thought they'd rise to the top of a division with the Colts and the looking good Texans, not to mention the possible Cinderella Titans, had you asked me in August. I still don't know what kind of play to expect from up and down Raiders, but I'm liking Jacksonville. Jaguars win.
MIA vs NYJ- Good season for the Dolphins, and this is a must win game if they want to get back into the race, but the Jets don't have any intention of losing to another division opponent after an embarrassing beat down by the Patriots. Jets win.
KC vs SD- Wouldn't been a very interesting game, but Matt Cassell is out. If the Chiefs can recreate their week 1 bull crap win with defense, special teams, and a non existent passing game, then they'll deserve all the kudos in the world. But until then, I'm taking the Chargers. Chargers win.
BAL vs HOU- The Texans train has pulled into the station. Season's all but over. All it'll take to say a final farewell to it, is a beating by a much superior Ravens team. Ravens win.

INT (30-24)
DEN vs ARI- Ugg, hate picking games like this. Though at least the Brocos offense has been doing a few good things. Arizona on the other hand hasn't looked all that great. Broncos pick up a rare win.
NE vs CHI- Well if we don't know if the Bears are for real yet, we will after this game. The Patriots offense looks like it could beat anybody right now, and the Bears bring a worthy opponent. If Jay Cutler can get his good side on the field, they'll make this a game, but it's hard to bet against the Patriots right now. Patriots win.

Week 13 Picks

2010-12-03T16:50:00.000-08:00

Last week's team by team record:
9-2: Lions, Cardinals, Giants
8-3: Bills, Vikings, Panthers, Saints
7-4: Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Packers, Falcons
6-5: Raiders, Chargers, Chiefs, Jaguars, Titans, Colts, Jets, Bengals, Rams, Buccaneers, Eagles (now 7-5)
5-6: Broncos, Texans (now 6-6), Browns, 49ers, Cowboys
4-7: Patriots, Seahawks, Redskins
3-8: Bears

NFC
CHI vs DET – It’s about time someone gives the Bears some credit. All they’ve done is kept winning but whether it be the aura of Jay Cutler or some other reason, nobody has wanted to say they’re good. But no worries, whether they’re a Super Bowl team or not, they’re a whole lot better than the Lions. Bears win.
SF vs GB- Upset pick!!! Green Bay’s non-existent running game will eventually come back to hurt them, and I’m going with the San Francisco resurgence to shock a few people. 49ers win.
WSH vs NYG- The Giants are on a bit of rough stretch, but should be able to beat off the Redskins who are struggling. Giants win.
CAR vs SEA- Even if Howard Dean gave the Seahawks their pep speech, I’d still have no worries about them being able to beat the hapless Panthers. Seahawks win.
ATL vs TB- The clock is running out for the Buccaneers to beat someone good and build a case for their credibility. After Sunday, the clock will have run out. Falcons win.
STL vs ARI- The Rams are looking pretty decent. Given their division, they’re looking great. Rams win.

AFC
JAC vs TEN- The Titans are down and out, the Jaguars are rising into the late blooming surprise wild card contender. Jaguars win.
DEN vs KC- Even if Howard Dean was the Chiefs quarterback, he’d still be able to get the ball to Dwayne Bowe. Chiefs win.
CLE vs MIA- This’ll be a close tough game. If I had to pick one game out of the whole season that I’m convinced will be close, this would probably be it. Neither offense is going to run away with it, and both teams will make big plays on both sides of the ball. But I like me them Browns. Browns win.
OAK vs SD- The Chargers have finally filled the cracks in an otherwise excellent team and continue their playoff surge.
PIT vs BAL- Last time these two teams met, it came down to the wire. Now, Roethlisberger is at quarterback, making the Steelers offense much more formidable, though it remains to be seen what extent the foot injury is. And I wish no harm on anyone, but if James Harrison keeps playing such a mindless style of football, he’ll eventually send someone to the IR and get himself suspended. Again, I’m not hoping for it, but in this rivalry game where he’ll be especially angry, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Flacco or perhaps a WR go down. Teams like this tend to split regular season meetings and then it’s free game in the playoffs. Steelers win.
NYJ vs NE- Hey, anyone good enough to beat the Patriots, you know I’m going to pick them. How New England is doing so well with such a bad defense is beyond me. A little Pre-Super Bowl Colts perhaps? They might do well, but I find their team build to be highly vulnerable in playoff football. Jets win.

INT
PHI vs HOU- Picked the Eagles and they won.
NO vs CIN- Who Dey? Who Dat? Matchup of the two NFL teams with the stupidest catch phrases/cheers/whatever the crap who dey/dat is supposed to be. But that’s the only thing they have in common. Good team. Bad team. Team players. T.O. and Ocho Cinco. Yeah, there’s a vast difference between the two clubs. Saints win.
BUF vs MIN- Buffalo is turning into a decent team, especially down the stretch when it doesn’t matter. I like those teams that bloom late and have nothing to play for other than a little respect and pride. And I don’t like very much about the Vikings right now. Bills win.
DAL vs IND- High scoring game. Seems like I’ve said that about the last few Cowboys games. And it seems to have turned out pretty much like that. But no way the Cowboys defense comes up with 4 picks off of Manning. Colts win.

Eagles vs Texans Thursday Night

2010-12-01T08:16:00.000-08:00

Getting this pick in before the rest. Thursday night features the Houston Texans who are fighting to save their playoff hopes, and the Philadelphia Eagles coming off a streak ending loss to Chicago. The Texans finally showed the thing they were lacking last week: defense. A shut out of anyone is impressive. Even if it was a rookie quarterback, they still have Chris Johnson, a threat to score any time. The much more balanced attack of the Eagles should put them back to the highly vulnerable defense they've looked like for much of the season. On the other side of the ball, the Texans offense hasn't looked like the juggernaut that we saw early in the season over the last few weeks. However, the Eagles defense has been a mystery of its own. They're not going to shut down an offense like the Texans, but they certainly have the potential to slow them down and contain them when need be. We saw them do this against Peyton Manning as well as shut down the Packers offense after falling behind, allowing an almost comeback. But we've also seen them get burned by the likes of Kenny Britt and Jay Cutler. both of those games, however, came after a big win against the Falcons (then considered tops in the NFC) and the Giants (to take over the NFC East). The youth of the Eagles team seems to have played into these let-downs a lot. So will the Eagles re-focus in time for Thursday Night? Will they be able to match Houston's desperation? We'll see. Eagles win

Week 12

2010-11-26T17:56:00.000-08:00

8-2: Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Giants
7-3: Bills, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Panthers
6-4: Chargers, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Eagles
5-5: Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars, Texans, Jets, Bengals, Rams, Buccaneers
4-6: Broncos, Browns, 49ers, Redskins, Cowboys
3-7: Seahawks, Patriots, Bears

Currently sitting at 89-71 after a 10-6 week 11.
NFC (36-24)
NO vs DAL- This one scared me, but the Saints won (1-0 on Thanksgiving).
GB vs ATL- Could go either way. This game is going to determine who gets to be called the NFC’s top team in conversation VS Philly (should they win). Both teams are playing great, great football. So without clear reason I can see, I’ll roll with the Packers and their better defense. Packers win.
MIN vs WSH- Jason Garrettesque revival for the Vikings? We’ll see. But I’m not going to bet on it. Redskins win with one of their unpredictable good games, and lose with an unpredictable bad game. I’ll say Redskins win.
PHI vs CHI- Another defensive test for the Michael Vick offense. The Eagles defense, however, is among the top teams in the league in INTs and go up against Jay Cutler himself. Whatever the Bears defense can muster, the Eagles defense counters. Eagles win.
SF vs ARI- Two bad NFC West teams. I like the 49ers upside a whole lot more, however. 49ers win.

AFC 30-26
CIN vs NYJ- Jets won handily (2-0 on Thanksgiving)
PIT vs BUF- Saw the Bills described as “Red Hot.” Even so, I’m not buying them in this game. The most interesting thing here is seeing what controversial hit/call/whatever will have a member of the Steelers saying something ridiculous about during the week. Steelers win.
TEN vs HOU- Houston is reeling. The Titans are falling. Biggest adjustment for the Titans to make, with Young out at QB, but fortunately that happens against the Texans defense. Titans win.
MIA vs OAK- No idea what to do with the Raiders. So I might as well go with my previous Raiders picking strategy, as well as a Miami team that I still like, despite them being down to their 3rd QB. And they’re coming off a Thursday Night extended week of rest. Dolphins win.
SD vs IND- Really good game here. Chargers are fighting to get back into things before another couple losses proves them too late. They’ve historically played the Colts well, but both teams look fairly different this year. Colts win.

INT 22-22
NE vs DET- Patriots took advantage of a plethora of mistakes that characterize a typical Lions team (3-0 on Thanksgiving!)
CAR vs CLE- Finally, a game the Browns can win easily. They’ve had a rough, rough schedule. Browns win.
JAC vs NYG- Giants get back to their winning ways after a two week hiatus. The Jaguars are doing surprisingly well, but the Giants defense will be too much. Giants win.
KC vs SEA- Dwayne Bowe is absolutely on fire right now, bringing some heat to an otherwise iffy offense. Chiefs win.
STL vs DEN- Really hard to pick the Broncos. They could bust out a big offensive performance any time, but their defense is quite lacking. Rams win.
TB vs BAL- The Bucs just haven’t beaten anyone yet. I usually don’t like that argument, but in this case it seems fitting. And the Ravens are just the better team. Ravens win.

Thanksgiving Picks

2010-11-24T14:08:00.001-08:00

NE vs DET- Bad defenses and good offenses for both teams, but the Patriots are much, much better at pulling off the Madden style team. One of the more exciting Lions Thanksgiving day games we've seen in a while, but no change in the result. Patriots win.
NO vs DAL- We get to see the revved up Cowboys go against a good team now, although it might be skewed by both teams playing on short rest. The Saints have finally gotten things going, and the Cowboys look to make a real statement. Until they do, I'm no believer. Saints win.
CIN vs NYJ- I'm not sure whether it'll take a miracle for the Bengals to actually win a game, or whether it'll take a miracle for them to not start winning down the stretch. Either way, they've been a highly entertaining bad team. New York is really looking good, however. Jets win.

2010-11-19T10:41:00.000-08:00

Horrid, horrid week 10 going 4-10, and seeing all my 7-1 teams drop to 7-2, and already off to a bad start after having picked the Dolphins to beat the Bears. Now that bye weeks are finished, the “By Picking Record” is a little clearer:
By Picking Record
7-2: Bills, Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Giants
6-3: Packers, Saints, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Panthers, Falcons
5-4: Chargers, Jaguars, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Buccaneers, Eagles
4-5: Raiders, Chiefs, Texans, Jets, Browns, Rams, 49ers, Redskins
3-6: Broncos, Patriots, Bears, Cowboys
2-7: Seahawks

NFC
DET vs DAL- For all the promise the Lions have shown, they haven’t shown the ability to win. Meanwhile, the Cowboys actually looked alright last week. But even last week their defense was shaky, so expect a big day for Calvin “Megatron” Johnson, no matter who is throwing him the ball. In a high scoring game, the Cowboys win.
GB vs MIN- The Vikings are simply going down in icicles. Meanwhile, the Packers seem to have cured or at least patched up some of their earlier problems. Packers win.
TB vs SF- Troy Smith is the kind of guy I love seeing get a chance. Everyone labeled him as a college only quarterback and now he’s stuck around in the NFL long enough to win a starting job and look pretty good while doing it. The Buccaneers have also been good but haven’t had any statement wins yet, so I’ll roll with Troy Smith and the upset. 49ers win.
SEA vs NO- Finally, a Seahawks game that I might be able to get right. The Saints are looking better and their Steelers beat down a few weeks back boosts my confidence level in that a lot. Saints win.
ATL vs STL- The Falcons might not be the number one team in the league like ESPN’s power rankings say, but they’re still better than the Rams. By a lot. Falcons win.
NYG vs PHI- Tough game for sure. The Giants suffered the NFC’s top team syndrome last week, keeping up the title’s tradition of losing. The Eagles are playing as good as I’ve seen them in all my years as an Eagles fan. And they happen to have the hottest player in the whole league. Eagles win.

AFC
BUF vs CIN- The Bengals have been so close in a lot of games against good teams. Now that they’re basically eliminated from the playoffs, I’m sure they’ll start doing better. And the Bills, though Buffalo hasn’t looked entirely putrid, are still a good place to start. Bengals win.
HOU vs NYJ- The Jets are in the top echelon of NFL teams right now, and the Texans are reeling after a hail mary loss to the Jags. Jets defense can slow down the Texans offense, and the Texans defense shouldn’t be much of an obstacle for Mark Sanchez. Jets win.
OAK vs PIT- Finally someone to stop this ugly Raiders train. Maybe it’s just hating the Raiders, maybe I just can’t stand seeing a team win when their head coach looks like someone who’s greatest life achievement would be winning a bar fight. Steelers win.
CLE vs JAC- Finally a bit of a breather for the Browns, though the Jaguars have been coming around and aren’t nearly as bad as we thought they were a few weeks ago. If the Browns keep up the intensity that they’ve had over the last 4 weeks, however, it’ll be a tough, pounding victory. Browns win.
IND vs NE- High scoring game. Which means very unpredictable game. Which means I’ll go with a fan pick. Colts win.
DEN vs SD- It would be wrong to say that the Chargers have finally got things rolling. It’s just that now they’re still rolling and their special teams haven’t singlehandedly lost them their past few games. The Broncos had a field day vs the Chiefs, but they face a bigger monster this week. Chargers win.

INT
CHI vs MIA (I picked the ‘Phins. Bears won)
WAS vs TEN- I wouldn’t pick the Redskins to beat very many teams. Randy Moss gets better in his second game with the Titans. Tennessee wins.
ARI vs KC- The Chiefs finally get back on the right track against a bad Cardinals team and buckle up for the stretch to try to live up to the promise they showed early in the season. Chiefs win.
BAL vs CAR- Deangelo Williams could have rebounded from a bad season and made the Panthers competitive. Instead, he hit the IR. Ravens win.

Thursday night pick

2010-11-18T12:49:00.000-08:00

Time to get a quick pick in before the Thursday night game.
CHI vs MIA- The Bears are the one of the least respected 6-3 teams I can remember. The ESPN power ranking has them around 19 behind a plethora of 5-4, 4-4, and maybe even a 4-5 team or two, while there are only 3 or so teams with records better than 6-3. This game should be an intersting matchup with two strong defenses against two mediocre, though at times very capable offenses. The Dolphins were dropped down to their 3rd stringer, yet Tyler Thigpen has played quite well in his previous NFL showings. Given the Dolphins offense that makes due without any huge stars, he'll be fine. The game comes down to the Dolphins needing a win to avoid falling to 5-5 in a very tough division with the Jets and Patriots. Dolphins win.

2010-11-10T20:19:00.000-08:00

75-55 on the season. I've said before that my NFC picks are much more reliable than my AFC picks. Look at the 'By Picking Record' section below. 7 or the 8 top teams are NFC teams, however, 4 of the 6 bottam teams are also NFC teams. This just goes to show that when it comes to my picks, NFC is best with a few bad apples. All but 3 AFC teams fall into the "mid range" of 5-3 to 4-5. So I'm a little bit better than flipping a coin, it would seem.

By Picking Record
7-1: Bills, Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Giants
6-2: Falcons
6-3: Packers, Saints
5-3: Jaguars, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Ravens, Steelers, Panthers
5-4: Chargers
4-4: 49ers, Rams, Chiefs, Texans, Jets, Browns, Bengals, Buccaneers, Eagles
4-5: Raiders
3-5: Broncos, Redskins, Patriots, Bears, Cowboys
2-6: Seahawks

Week 10
NFC
MIN vs CHI(+4)- Finally saw some life out of the Vikings at the end of last week’s game. Meanwhile, the Bears fought off the most valiant 0-8 team ever. I think the Bears will turn a few heads yet before the season’s over, but only for those of us who are ruling them out. Vikings win.
CAR vs TB(+2)- Tampa Bay lost a close one to the Falcons, adding to the NFC trend of the recently crowned favorite losing. But Carolina is a good was away from being good; they’re probably worse than the Bills despite their one win. Buccaneers win.
SEA vs ARI(+2)- The Cardinals are showing some fight, although they collapsed at the end of the Minnesota game. Coming off a terrible game, I once again have no idea what the Seahawks will look like. In a game that has playoff significance due to the greatness that is the NFC west, the Cardinals pull a slight upset. Cardinals win
DAL vs NYG(+4)- Cowboys stink. Giants surprisingly the best team in the NFC at this point. Thought that title hasn’t been worn well by its previous owners, it’s the Cowboys. Giants win.
STL vs SF(0)- In another game that by all means shouldn’t have playoff significance, but does for at least the Rams, and I suppose does for the 2-6 49ers who are still only 2 games out of first place, the 49ers try to get back into things. Bye week for the Rams, who crack .500 by taking care of business over San Fransisco. Rams win.
PHI vs WSH(-2)- Coming off a signature, though far from flawless, victory over the Colts, the Eagles are a much more tested team than they were during the last meeting. Meanwhile in Washington, McNabb is less trusted by his coaches than he was by Philadelphia fans. Two teams going in entirely different directions than they were last time. Eagles win.

AFC
NYJ vs CLE(0)- Wow, wanted to pick the Browns so much last week. They are, without a doubt, the team that I’ve wanted to pick the most while being unable to do so for various reasons. And here we are again, with a Jets team that matches up well against the Browns, yet me wanting to pick the Browns all the while. Colt McCoy has been impressive, very impressive and here’s another great test. We know that Peyton Hillis is going to beast his way for yardage against any defense. Slowly but surely, the Browns offense is coming to life, as is their defense. I’m playing against the odds, but I’m going for 3 huge Cleveland upsets in 3 weeks. Browns win.
TEN vs MIA(+4)- I might as well flip a coin. Tennessee is in for either a jolt with Randy Moss’s presence, or a slow and steady crumble. Moss and Britt on the same field down the road? Scary. But so was Palmer/T.O./Ochocinco. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had an understandable down game against the Ravens. I still like the Dolphins, however. Dolphins win.
CIN vs IND(+2)- The Bengals just can’t do anything right, at least not when it counts. Are they the worst, very competitive team I’ve ever seen? Quite possibly. Colts win.
HOU vs JAC(+2)- The Jaguars have been outscored by almost 100 points in their 4 losses. I don’t think their offense can keep up in a real shoot out. If the Texans can get their offense firing on all 11 cylinders, they could simply outrun the Jaguars. Texans win.
KC vs DEN(-2)- Just hard to pick the Broncos right now. And equally hard to pick against the Chiefs, even if they did lose a close game to Oakland. Chiefs win.
NE vs PIT(0)- I thought this game would be where everyone realized that the Patriots weren’t worth putting at the top of the of the NFL power rankings. As it turns out, that was last week’s game. This week’s is to convince all the homers and Tom Brady lovers. Steelers win.

INT
BAL vs ATL(+6)- Flacco vs Ryan, and on the national spotlight. It could go either way if the Falcons play their top game. The Ravens continue to impress me a lot, and the Falcons are still a bit shaky in my eyes. Ravens win.
DET vs BUF(+12)- Well, I could try this whole Buffalo thing again, but the Lions are my other team that I believe could really be an upset specialist. Overall, they have better talent and have played some good teams down to the wire, including the Jets last week. Lions win.

2010-11-04T14:51:00.000-07:00

Currently sitting at 67-50 after a disapointing 7-6 week 8. The following is my record picking by team, and the numbers in parentheses are the number of games above or below .500 in games involving those two teams. Buffalo is standing strong as my last perfect team and the Seahawks kept up their trouble making, remaining at one win.

7-0: Bills
6-1: Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, Giants
5-2: Colts
5-3: Jaguars, Titans, Packers, Saints
4-3: Steelers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Browns, Ravens, Eagles, Panthers, Buccaneers
4-4: Raiders, Chargers, 49ers, Rams
3-4: Bengals, Jets, Patriots, Texans, Bears
3-5: Broncos, Redskins
2-5: Cowboys
1-6: Seahawks

NFC (25-16)
TB vs ATL(+6)- On one side, the Buccaneers are turning into the late surprise team of the year, slowing showing the ability to win. On the other, a Falcons team that we know is talented, but is much less consistent. It’s hard to feel at all comfortable with a team that wins a shoot out with the Bengals. Their defense, which was playing well earlier has looked highly suspect recently. I think the Falcons can pull things together and make a playoff run, but as of week 9, Buccaneers win.
NO vs CAR(+3)- The Saints haven’t been a Super Bowl team, but after their Steelers beat down, they’ve shown they still have some hop on their step. Possible let down game potential here, but no worries from my end. Saints win.
ARI vs MIN(+10)- Will the Cardinals get back on the ways of looking terrible, yet winning, or will they just continue to look bad? I have no idea what the Vikings will look like, with Favre as injured as any player I can ever remember. This one’s tough, but I’ll take the underperformer to get things going rather than the previous over performer to return to form. Vikings win.
NYG vs SEA(0)- The Giants running game is beast, and they’re looking really good. After the Eagles collapse against Tennessee, I’m confidently calling them the best team in the NFC east (and quite possibly the NFC) for the time being. And coming off a bye, it would take a major surprise by the Seahawks for them to lose. However, given my past picking record, maybe that’s a good reason to pick the Seahawks. Giants win.
DAL vs GB(-1)- I have finally rid myself of the feeling that the Cowboys will eventually get things together. Meanwhile, the Packers majorly got things together. Packers win.

AFC (22-17)
NE vs CLE(0)- Really tempted to pick the upset here, however, picking an upset when the team’s previous game was a monumental upset usually isn’t a good idea. An upset is an upset because the one team isn’t very good, and it’s usually too much to ask for them to put two great games together back to back. But the Patriots are possibly the most suspect one loss team in memory, so it could go either way. I’ll take my gut and say Patriots win.
MIA vs BAL(+2)- As high as I am on Miami, this will be a tough match up as they’ve had a rough post bye week, AFC North stretch. Baltimore, meanwhile, is fresh off bye week and looking to capitalize on the Steelers loss last week. Ravens gut this one out. Baltimore wins.
SD vs HOU(-1)- The demise of the Texans could be imminent. They have the defense for an explosive offensive team, but that offense has taken its fair share of off days. Expect a field day for the Chargers offense. The Chargers defense has been equally inept at times, of course, so there could be a lot of lightning in this game. I’ll take the Chargers to come out on top.
KC vs OAK(+1)- Okay, someone’s got to stop this Oakland run (though if the Raiders do decent, that means that their first round pick, which the Patriots have, will be lower. And I’m in favor of not handing Belicheck easy talent). Kansas City should be able to slow down the Raiders offense (did I just say that?), which again puts the ball in the hands of Matt Cassel and the offense. That is scary, but they’ve done a decent job recently. Chiefs win.
PIT vs CIN(0)- The Steelers will be ticked and take it out on the Bengals receivers who are more focused on the T.Ocho Show. Steelers win.

INT (19-16)
CHI vs BUF(+6)- Two over time losses against good teams? I can’t believe what I’m saying, but here it goes: I’M SOLD ON THE BUFFALO BILLS!!! Maybe not for long, but after last week’s game, I thought to myself, “This team isn’t 0-16 caliber. Unless they’re playing a really top notch team next week, I’m taking them.” I fully expected to back out of that commitment once I saw the match up and thought about it, but the Bears are the perfect team to lose to the Bills. All it takes is a little Jay Cutler anti-magic to take them from a competitive team to a bad one. On top of that, other bad teams would think “here’s a game we can win” when playing the Bills. A team like the Bears simply doesn’t want to be the team that loses to the Bills. Bills are the last team to get their first win.
NYJ vs DET(+4)- The Lions are another team that has very much improved from their colossal ineptitude the past two seasons. The Jets, however, are still a good defensive team, even if they are coming off an offensive goose egg. Could be a very competitive game, but I’ll go with the Jets.
IND vs PHI(+4)- In my Eagles experience, this is not a game they win. 1) They usually don’t play well against the AFC. 2) While their defense has the knack of absolutely shutting down star running backs from time to time, shutting down star QBs/passing attacks isn’t as common of an occurrence. 3) Should the defense hold up and have a lead going into the fourth quarter, the afore mentioned star quarterbacks have a way of picking apart their defense and getting back into the game. I expect Vick to play well and the Eagles offense is a good matchup against the Colts defense, but ultimately, the Colts come out on top.

Week 8 Picks

2010-10-29T08:16:00.000-07:00

I picked a Seahawks game right! I picked a Seahawks game right! 9-5 (60-44 overall), that’s better, especially considering it came in a week that the Browns beat the Saints, the Raiders looked like the greatest show on turf, and the breaks kept going absurdly in the Steelers favor. Here’s the updated picks record. Again, the number beside each game in the picks is the number of games I am above or below .500 in games involving those two teams.

6-0: Lions, Bills
6-1: Falcons, Giants
5-1: Vikings, Cardinals
5-2: Jaguars, Packers, Saints
4-2: Colts, Steelers
4-3: Raiders, Titans, Browns, Ravens, 49ers, Eagles
3-3: Chiefs, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, Buccaneers
3-4: Broncos, Chargers, Bears, Rams, Redskins
2-4: Texans, Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys
1-5: Seahawks

NFC (23-15)
WSH vs DET(+5)- This is tough, the Redskins keep outperforming themselves, making them due for a loss, and the Lions have some good upset potential against mid-range to fairly good teams like Washington. Yet, the Redskins fight versus the Lions various “almost” games is tough to pick against. Redskins win.
CAR vs STL(-1)- Panthers finally picked up their first win, but I still have very little faith. I’ll take the Rams to tally a win here before they continue to fall back. Rams win.
TB vs ARI(+4)- I laughed at a headline I saw saying “Buccaneers NFC’s best?” I’m definitely not going there after a few mildly impressive wins by Tampa Bay. But last week, the Bucs took care of a mediocre NFC West team and they do it again this week. Buccaneers win.

AFC (18-17)
MIA vs CIN(-2)- The Bengals have discovered the impressive formula of how to put up huge passing numbers yet still lose week in and week out. Miami missed a lot of chances last week and it still took an officiating blunder for the Steelers to win. Now THAT impresses me. Dolphins win.
BUF vs KC(+6)- Kansas City has shown an offense the last two weeks, albeit against defenses that aren’t that great, but here they get another one. Chiefs win.
TEN vs SD(0)- The Titans look pretty good, but it’s games like these that keep them from getting into the group of good teams. The Chargers haven’t been terrible for a 2¬-5 team. This is the type of game they’ll be able to pull out. Chargers win.
HOU vs IND(0)- Week 1 rematch where we got our first glimpse of the Arian Foster we now know. Not a repeat performance for the Texans running back, though he could still have a very nice game against the Colts undersized defense. The Colts have things more together now, and the Texans have only looked more questionable as time goes by. Colts win.

INT (18-11)
JAC vs DAL(+1)- It’s hard to keep picking a team with as many talented players as Dallas to keep losing, but have they showed any winning ability? Both teams are playing with backup quarterbacks. Neither is very good. But I guess Miles Austin big plays will eventually be enough to win some games here and there. Cowboys win.
DEN vs SF(0)- Broncos are 2-5. 49ers are 1-6. Like Jags/’boys, it’s hard to pick either. Troy Smith brings a spark to the 49ers, but that spark might not lead to a fire. The Broncos look to bounce back from a humiliating trouncing by the Raiders and that should motivate them. Broncos win.
GB vs NYJ(+3)- The Packers win over Minnesota showed grit, but far from proved that their problems are gone, showed that they have more, if anything. The Jets are still looking good and I’ll take their consistency over the Packers potential. Jets win.
MIN vs NE(+2)- The Vikings continue to sink and the Patriots keep winning, though Belicheck’s bad case of feelings of invincibility nearly cost them last week. Moss playing against his team of several weeks ago adds intrigue, but unless Favre manages to get himself back on the field AND plays better than he has been, that intrigue won’t last long into a Patriots blowout. Patriots win.
SEA vs OAK(-3)- Rule #1: If in doubt, don’t pick the Raiders. I’m not convinced that the Seahawks are really good, and I’m not as sure as I once was that the Raiders are totally aweful. But nothing good has ever come from picking Oakland (at least for me), so I’ll stick with the Seahawks to keep impressing. Seahawks win.
PIT vs NO(+5)- The Browns defense made Drew Brees look silly, and the Steelers defense is top notch, so it could be another tough offensive day for the Saints. And nothing can possibly go wrong for the Steelers, so Steelers win.

2010-10-21T19:44:00.000-07:00

Anyone want to guess my record from last week? That’s right, 8-6 for the 3rd straight week. Six weeks down and I stand at a consistent, yet highly unimpressive record of 51-39. Only 12 games above .500 and that is even without the aid of a sub .500 week. So while predicting games is not a formula oriented task, I’ve compiled some personal stats to help you sort my more credible picks from the less credible ones. Here is a team by team record of how successful I am at picking their games:

Picking Record:
6-0: Lions
5-0: Bills
5-1: Giants, Saints, Falcons
4-1: Cardinals, Vikings, Steelers
4-2: Eagles, 49ers, Packers, Browns, Raiders, Colts, Titans, Jaguars
3-2: Panthers, Dolphins
3-3: Ravens, Jets, Broncos
2-3: Chiefs, Buccaneers
2-4: Rams, Bears, Texans, Chargers, Redskins
1-4: Cowboys, Bengals, Patriots
0-5: Seahawks

Yes, picking the Bills has been easy. The Seahawks…wow. I have absolutely no idea what’s going on with that team. A bad picking record for the Cowboys would normally indicate me picking them to lose every game that they might possibly loose. In this case, it’s them losing games that I pick them to win. So take these stats to mean as much or as little as you like. Here’s the picks with an indicator of how many games above or below .500 I am at picking the teams involved.

NFC
WSH vs CHI(-4)- I’m actually starting to be impressed with the Redskins. Even though they sit at 3-3, every game apart from the Rams embarrassment has been a one score game. The reason I’m taking a conservative approach to getting excited about the Skins is that their 4-12 record last year was laced with one score losses. Against the Bears, however, one of the teams that I finally jumped on board with last week, I’m feeling pretty confident in their defense against the question mark that is Jay Cutler and in their McNabb improved offense against a Bears defense that is good, but not what it was several years ago. Redskins win.
STL vs TB(-3)- In their last games, the Buccaneers were humbled by the Saints and the Rams were humbled by the Lions. The Rams have showed some offensive fire power, but the loss of Mark Clayton cuts into that dramatically. I’m still not on the Bucs bandwagon, but I’ll take them as reality starts to fall on the Rams. Buccaneers win.
SF vs CAR(+3)- The 49ers finally got a win last week, though it took the Raiders to do so, and now face a team looking for their first. The Panthers have struggled to show much of anything. The 49ers, however, have shown a good bit; they’ve just been an atrocious team. I hope they’ve learned that shooting themselves in the foot hurts, as I said they eventually would at some point, because it’s nerve wracking taking such an inconsistent team twice in a row. Those worries are greatly reduced by the Panther, however. 49ers win.
ARI vs SEA(-2)- Somehow the Cardinals have arrived at a 3-2 r ecord while making us all believe that they’re terrible. Even their defeat of the defending champions I found almost surprisingly unimpressive. Somehow, they just don’t look good. Granted, starting an undrafted rookie quarterback does tend to indicate that your other quarterback options haven’t worked out. As for the Seahawks, the addition of Marshawn Lynch brings some pop to the running game, and is Matt Hasselbeck back? I’m going to go with the Seahawks as they have shown several quality wins. Seattle wins.
MIN vs GB(+5)- The Vikings looked decent in their win over a decent Cowboys team, but it was enough to make me believe that they might be on their way back. Meanwhile, the Packers lost a tight overtime game against the Dolphins. I’m starting to believe that while the Packers offense is a capable offense, it’s not a dominating one that will walk over even stout defenses as I previously believed it would. Nevertheless, the Vikings defense isn’t one that I would call stout, nor is the Packers defense one I would suspect to fall in shambles versus the Vikings. Packers win.
NYG vs DAL(+1)- What can you say about the Giants other than, boy have they turned things around. After a dreadful 1-2 start, I was quite ready to bury them (at least, after they upset the Bears), but they’re stormed back and are making a case to be the best team in the NFC East. Meanwhile, the bright spot of the Cowboys has been last year’s laughing stock: Roy Williams. Should the Cowboys be in this game come the 4th quarter, the Giants should be able to force Tony Romo into yet another game killing mistake. Giants win.

AFC
BUF vs BAL(+5)- Tough OT loss for the Ravens last week, but now, the perfect remedy.
JAC vs KC(+1)- Despite the tough loss against the Texans, the Chiefs finally showed a passing offense, something they’ll need. Even though the Texans defense is far from the best pass defense, the Jaguars isn’t much better. Kansas City gets back in the win column.
PIT vs MIA(+4)- The Steelers struggled a bit against the Browns before breaking things open in the 4th quarter, but that’s their game. The Dolphins have really impressed me, suffering losses only to the Jets, and the Patriots (thanks to a wild special teams flop). They play close games and have done a fairly good job of coming out on top. Expect a game. A really good game. Two teams that play tough, close games. My mind says Steelers, but this could be one of the few games the Steelers manage not to win this year. Dolphins win.
NE vs SD(-5)- San Diego, San Diego. How is it that a team can amass so much offense and come away with so little to show for it? Meanwhile, the Patriots have been a far cry from what they’ve been over the past decade, yet they’ve pulled out a 4-1 record. Stats versus guts. Patriots win.
OAK vs DEN(+2)- Every now and then I love to see a guy that gets ripped to shreds emerge from a team with a bad passing game/receivers and succeed with some real help. That’s what we seem to have with Kyle Orton. I vaguely remember watching one of his first starts in the league after a Rex Grossman injury and thinking “here’s a guy that doesn’t look terrible on a bad offensive team. Too bad he’ll probably never get a chance to start other than injury fill in.” Denver hasn’t looked too bad and the Raiders are next up. Broncos win.

INT
CIN vs ATL(+1)- The Falcons defense got burned by the Maclin/Jackson combo and now face another good receiving corps. Carson Palmer has been mistake prone, however, though he has the potential to still play a good game. Matt Ryan looked terrible last week, but if he gets protection, should be able to win the game for Atlanta. Falcons win.
PHI vs TEN(+4)- Impressive win for the Eagles and statement performance from Kolb who looks to be getting the start again this week. DeSean Jackson won’t be in to open things up for everyone else, but they have plenty of offensive talent to keep things rolling. A big factor is the Eagles hit or miss run defense (is it just me, or does it seem like they only give up runs of either 2 or fewer yards or 5 or more?). Chris Johnson breaks a big one or two, but the Eagles should keep him contained for the most part and I’ll take the Eagles secondary over Vince Young. Eagles win a close game.
CLE vs NO(+5)- Colt McCoy has an easier task than he did last week against the Pittsburg D (okay, one of these days I’ll go a week without gushing about the Steelers defense or giving someone from last week a free pass for having to play them) but the Saints are no push over either. They finally looked really good last week by dominating the Buccanears. They haven’t been pretty, but they’ve been getting the job done. Saints win.

2010-10-15T07:18:00.000-07:00

Week 5 brought me another 8-6 performance, let's hope this week goes better.
NFC
SEA vs CHI-Much to my delight, the Seahawks were on bye week last week which meant I didn’t have to worry about trying to figure them out. Much to my delight this week, they’re playing the Bears, who I have much more faith in following their convincing win without Jay Cutler. I give up for now on trying to figure out Seattle, but I don’t think they’ll be able to muster a win against the Bears this week. Victory Chicago.
NO vs TB- Last week I mentioned how I wanted to pick against the Saints but couldn’t find a team that seemed perhaps good enough. Well, I missed the chance last week, and now find myself with a 3-1 option. Problem is, it’s one of my least favorite 3-1 options out there. Sure, they looked decent against subpar teams, and had to pull an out-of-nowhere win to beat the Bengals, but I’m still not sold. Meanwhile, I have the Saints coming off an embarrassing win. Team I’m not that high on plus picking against a good team that’s going to come ready to play Sunday? Just can’t do it. Saints win.
DET vs NYG- Two weeks ago, I was ready to right the Giants off entirely. Then they upset the Bears and followed that with another phenomenal defensive performance. Meanwhile, the Lions finally got out of the gate with a trounce of the Rams. Calvin Johnson’s playing status is in question, and with the play of the Giant’s defense, Shaun Hill will need to play a great game. Giant’s win.
ATL vs PHI- Looks like Kolb will get the start and the Falcons defense could make it a rough day. The Falcons offense has gotten the job done, but has been far from impressive, save for the Arizona game. They should continue to get the job done against a fairly good, but not shut down Eagles offense. Unless the Eagles offense plays excellent or the Eagles defense really has a dominant game, Falcons win.
DAL vs MIN-Phew, this one looked a lot better 5 weeks ago. On one side, you have the most enjoyable kind of demise possible for your most disliked team: good players but not so much chemistry. On the other side, you have a beat up, wild throwing quarterback with a new toy, but not much consistency to bank on (though their many 3rd and long conversions Monday night were impressive). The winner starts to climb out of a hole, the loser puts themselves in an abyss. As much as I hate it, I have a lot more faith in Romo to Austin being able to make game breaking plays and win. Cowboys drop the Vikings.

AFC
BAL vs NE- The Ravens have yet to step into their preseason potential that made them my Superbowl pick, but they’re definitely a major contender. The Patriots have to adjust to life without the league’s best decoy and having their other receiving options getting cracked down on. They survived a wild game against the Dolphins, but proved very little in the process. Ravens win.
CLE vs PIT- Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the type of quarterback that I’m worried about having a rough first start. He’ll be out ready to play, and tough out some nice plays even if he’s not entirely caught up from missing time. If anyone can stop Peyton Hillis, my money’s on the Steelers defense. Sorry Cleveland, I still can’t seem to pick you. Steelers win.
KC vs HOU- Sigh. Over performing team or team with a few really ugly losses? Kansas City came closer to joining the legit category in my mind with their defense’s play against the Colts, but they won’t join that list until I see something from Matt Cassel. The Texans were victims of the Giant’s defensive surge last week. Important game for both teams. The Chiefs look to rebound from their first loss and avoid starting to become the annual team that drops off after a fast start. The Texans don’t want to drop to 3-3 in a division shared with the Colts and Titans. I’m going to go against my own conventional wisdom, however. Every now and then, you’ve got to have some faith in a team you don’t trust very much. Let’s see if the Chiefs can keep it going. I’ll take Kansas City.
NYJ vs DEN- The Broncos can pass the ball, but no way will they convert such an obscene amount of 3rd and longs which kept the Vikings in the game against the Jets defense. Meanwhile, I’ll keep taking the Jets until they show a serious kink in their armour.
TEN vs JAC- The Jaguars are on a two game winning streak. The Titans are coming off a win against a desperate Dallas team and in the process look like they actually have a passing game to work with, making the Chris Johnson threat even more menacing. It’ll be interesting to see if the Jaguars keep showing a little improvement, but for now, I’m taking the Titans.

INT
MIA vs GB- It’s tough to know how good Miami is. Does losing a game due to blocked kicks and interceptions mean you’ve got some serious problems, or does it mean you had rotten luck? On the other side, I’m starting to wonder if I was a bit too high on the Packers. Their offense hasn’t been what it was last year, and now they’re without Jermichael Finley and Rodgers has a concussion. Could be a wakeup call type game for the Packers as they lose their second in a row. Dolphins win.
SD vs STL- San Diego, San Diego. I keep thinking they’re a great team, then they get upset time and time again. Meanwhile, the Ram’s loss to the Lions and of their best receiver puts their ability to reach .500 highly in doubt, leaving the ugly 3-2 Cardinals and the uglier 2-2 Seahawks as the only threats to a sub .500 team making the playoffs. I’ll keep sticking to my guns, though. Chargers win.
OAK vs SF- You can’t even start to know how much I hate picking this game. Picking the Raiders never works out well, but who could take the 49ers? Especially after the Raiders are coming off an impressive win? Ugh. Yuck. Why schedule maker, why? I guess I’ve got to do something though. Come on, the 49ers have been playing close to some decent teams, right? I’ll give ‘em this last chance, or I very well may pick them to lose the rest of their games.
IND vs WSH- Have the Redskins actually looked good? Every year you hear about the Redskins getting good, but then they end up as an un-team with a bunch of previous big names. But they knocked off the Packers in a game I thought they’d lose to handily. But maybe their taking advantage of some bad play. If so, the Colts are a good remedy to put them in their place. Colts win.

2010-10-07T13:24:00.000-07:00

Well, the first bye week took a toll on my wins total, rather than my losses total, and I went 8-6 last week bringing my season total to 35-27.

NFC (14-8):
STL vs DET- Predicting winners in a match-up of two unbalanced teams is easiest. Picking between two good teams is harder. Picking between two equally bad teams is even harder. And picking between two lower level teams who have shown the ability to play with some good teams but just aren’t all around good or consistent is the hardest. Detriot is 0-4 despite two almost comebacks against the Eagles and Packers and Calvin Johnson is finally involved in the offense which is a good thing for them. The Rams are still a work in progress. The Rams have already doubled last year’s win total (and matched their season win average from the past 3 years), but they are none-the-less still a work in progress and will have their share of downs this year. Detriot won’t go 0-16 again, and their impressive offense should be able to carry them to their first win of the year.
CHI vs CAR- Well, I have now established an example of my upset-picking credibility by calling the Giants to knock the Bears off the pedestal of the unbeatens. So be warned, I may harp on that all year long despite other upset picks falling flat on their faces. To the game, Carolina nearly beat the Saints. However, to me this is another indicator of the Saints taking a step backward, rather than the Panthers showing their mettle. However, Jay Cutler was knocked out of the game with a concussion after 9 first half sacks and has been ruled out of this weeks game. If they can play as well as they did last week, Jay Cutler’s absence helps the Panthers on their way to win #1.
GB vs WSH- Having the opposing team commit a delay of game penalty on 4th and goal inside the 1 after a time out, losing a guaranteed touchdown opportunity because your receiver tripped and fell down after catching the ball, and going scoreless in the second half usually things you can’t count on/survive. Green Bay is a better team than the Eagles (who’s ineptitude versus Washington continues to astound me) and should be a good measuring stick to make a judgment on the quality of the Redskins. Packers win.
NO vs ARI- I keep wanting to pick the Saints to get beat because they just don’t seem to have a molecule of the offensive fire that they had last year. Apart from the Falcons, however, none of their opponents have been close enough to moderately good in order to do so. The Cardinals don’t break the trend. If they break a trend, it will be the trend of the Saints offense looking mediocre. The Cardinals defense has already been carved up for more than 40 points twice in this young season, so expect the Saints offense to break out this week. Maybe that’s what they need to get going. Saints win.
PHI vs SF- I’m not gonna lie. This a game I hate to see come up on the Eagles schedule. The 49ers will figure things out and put together a decent run at some point, even if it’s only a 3 game win streak amidst a 4-12 season. They tend to play the Eagles well, and with an unpredictable breakout due any time now, the Eagles iffy quarterback situation Philly vulnerable. If Vick plays, his health will be questionable, and if Kolb plays, a slow start could put them in a hole that they just can’t climb out of (as we saw last week). I’m much more confident in the Eagles as a team than I am about the 49ers, but nevertheless, this one’s got me worried. A team that shoots themselves in the foot as much as the 49ers eventually realizes it hurts and stops. Nevertheless, I’ll have to take the Eagles.

AFC (10-13):
KC vs IND- The Saints aren’t the only 2010 Super Bowl team to disappoint this season. Looking past the 59 yard Scobbee FG, the Colts had to fight just to tie it up at the end against the Jaguars (they faced a 4th and 10 in their own territory on the final drive). Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off a bye week as the only remaining undefeated team. They’ve been playing great defense and face a great challenge against Peyton Manning and the stacked arsenal of receiving talent that he always seems to have. It’s tempting to pick the Chiefs to keep this surprising run going, especially after having two weeks to focus on the Colts, but after being beaten by the Jaguars, I have faith in the Colts to right ship and be ready to play. Colts win.
JAC vs BUF- A week ago, I might have had to stop and consider this one for a moment, but the Jaguars finally got Maurice Jones-Drew going and pulled a mammoth upset of the Colts. May not be a defining win, but it shows enough to not be concerned about Buffalo.
DEN vs BAL- The Broncos are starting to make me turn my head and consider them as a legit competitive team. However the Ravens really made me turn my head and solidified my opinion of them as a more than legit contender. As we’ve seen so far, it takes a tough, physical, and resilient team to stick it out with the Ravens and I don’t see the Broncos being able to hold up for 60 minutes. Ravens win.
SD vs OAK- Both of San Diego’s losses have been surprise upsets by teams that we didn’t think were very good who relied on special teams returns. The other Chargers performances have been dominating wins. I’d expect a 3-2 record after Sunday regardless of whether the Raiders pull a few kick returns out of nowhere or not. Chargers win.

INT (11-6):
TB vs CIN- Some serious question marks have to be raised about the Bengals after losing to the Browns despite finally getting their passing game going. However, the Browns haven’t been straight up bad, it could be that they just put things together last week. We’ve seen that the Bengals are able to tough out a win like they did against Baltimore, and I’m far from sold on the Buccaneers, so I’m uneasily picking the Bengals to win.
ATL vs CLE- Missed it by that much. Make whatever small gesture you prefer, that’s how close I was to taking the Browns last week. But I didn’t have enough confidence. They browns have been the opposite of the Saints for me, I want to pick them, they’ve shown some potential, but they just can’t seem to find an opponent that I can count on them against. The same holds true this week. Atlanta is rising in the ranks and I’m becoming more and more of a believer. Falcons win.
NYG vs HOU- Unless the Giants defense can muster another 9 first half sacks and knock Matt Shaub out of the game, they’ll have a hard time keeping this offense to 3 points. Texans win.
TEN vs DAL- It’s hard to know what to expect from the Cowboys. A horrid, 0-2 start followed by an impressive win over the Texans; and that was 2 weeks ago. Tony Romo isn’t the safe bet after a bye week that most star quarter backs are, but it could have been a good time for the team to get back on its feet. Meanwhile, I said at the start of the season that while the Titans might not be great, they could be that pesky team that other good teams just can’t seem to put away. I think that could start here. A Dallas team trying to get things together and then having to try and deal with Vince Young scrambling on 3rd down and Chris Johnson making touchdowns out of nothing. Titans win.
MIN vs NYJ- Last year we saw how effective Brett Favre was at chucking the ball into the air and letting a tall, athletic receiver named Sydney Rice out jump the defense. Sydney Rice is now named Randy Moss. However, we also saw at the start of the season how out of sync Brett was with receivers after a late appearance at training camp. It might take a while for the Favre/Moss connection to get going. Meanwhile, the Jets look like a well oiled machine. With their offense being effective, they can go a long way on the defense. I’m not ruling out the Vikings yet, but right now the Jets are far better, New York wins.

2010-09-30T13:47:00.000-07:00

Slow and steady improvment from 8-8 to 9-7 to 10-6 leaves me at 27-21 on the year. Hoping it's the loss numbers that drop, not the wins as we head into bye weeks.
NFC
SF vs ATL- San Fransisco, the underwhelming team of the year have played the Saints tight, and lost badly to two teams that weren’t supposed to be good…but now stand at 2-1 and 3-0. I’m not going to give up on them, they could show some fire, but they’re also not a team to bet on with their foot shooting tendencies, and especially not against the Falcons. Yes, they were aided by a missed 29 yarder in OT, but they still showed the ability to play with the Saints. Of course, so did San Fransisco. Okay, so the jury is still out on the Falcons, but I’m sold on them at least this week.
SEA vs STL- Any team more enigmatic over three weeks than the Seahawks? Total underdogs in week 1, they blow out the 49ers. Following that performance, you think they’d handle the Broncos, only to lose. Once we thought they were the Seahawks again, they manage a win over the Chargers, albeit on two kickoff returns. The Rams have shown some potential, although shown by losing two close games to bad teams and edging out the Redskins and their disappointing defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take another progressive step and top the Hawks, but in a game of two unpredictable teams, I’ll go with my gut and take the Seahawks.
DET vs GB- Detroit helped the previously inept Vikings to their first win, bringing into doubt how much they have progressed as a team, at least without Matthew Stafford. On the other hand, no worries about the Packers, despite the Bears surprising me again. Packers win.
CAR vs NO- Jimmy Clausen didn’t help the Panthers against the Bengals. Don’t expect him to save them from the Saints either. New Orleans wins.
WSH vs PHI- In the much anticipated Philadelphia return for McNabb, the bigger factor could be the Eagles new QB. I mentioned earlier that my memories of Eagles/Redskins games is largely the Skin’s defense bailing out their inept offense time and time again, and McNabb being completely unable to move the ball. With Vick, a much more dynamic playmaker, and a much less daunting version of the Redskins defense (as much as I hate to bail on them so quickly after my gushing praise post week 1) the Eagles offense should do much better than before. With McNabb at the helm, the Skins offense should also do better. So basically, I have to throw out my plethora of Philly/Washington experience when making the call on this one. I want to write off the Redskins due to them losing to the Rams, but they also took the Texans to OT and were great against the Cowboys. Okay, decision time. It’s a close game, but ultimately……..the Redskins defense isn’t top notch enough to stop Vick and co. who have been converting opportunities and finding the end zone (no FG attempts the last two weeks) Eagles win.
CHI vs NYG- This one’s got me stuck in a circle of logic. It seems obvious enough that the surprise Bears who keep establishing themselves as legit should be able to handle the struggling Giants. But the surprise teams don’t keep winning forever. 2009 Broncos anyone? With a team like the Bears, it doesn’t seem to be a matter of finding a team good enough to beat them, it’s a matter of the breaks starting to roll back on top of them. Something about the iffy Calvin Johnson drop, the slow starting Cowboys offense, and the penalty aided game winning drive gives me qualms about seeing the Bears as a 3-0 powerhouse. Giants pull the upset.
AFC
CIN vs CLE- The people who expected the Bengals to step up and play extremely well this year are still waiting. Sure they pulled out a tough win against the Ravens, but the high flying passing offense hasn’t shown up yet. As for the Browns, they’re going to win a few games eventually, and they’ve been competitive, especially with the emergence of Peyton Hillis as a possible stud, following the preseason expectation of Harrison and Hardesty to do big things on the ground. I like the potential I’ve seen from Cleveland, but have yet to see anything materialize. In this meeting, I take the Bengals. The next?
NYJ vs BUF- Sanchez seems to have completely shaken off that dreadful start, and the Jets are looking formidable. Meanwhile, the Bills have held the lead for a total of 8 minutes and 13 seconds in all three games combined. Jets win.
DEN vs TEN- I’m not impressed with the Broncos yet, and I’ll give the Titans a free pass against the Steelers defense. Titians win.
BAL vs PIT- Classic example of a game that comes one week to early. With the way the Steelers defense is playing, it doesn’t take a whole lot of support from the offense to feel good about them, but against the Ravens, a team that can play both defense and offense with the best of anyone (if they decide to show up), Charlie Batch doesn’t cut it. Play this game a week later with Ben Roethlisberger, and I take the Steelers, but as is, Ravens win.
IND vs JAC- The Jaguars offense has sputtered. If you thought their defense looked bad against the Chargers and Eagles, it’s about to get worse with the Colts coming to town. Colts tally another win.
HOU vs OAK- I’m realizing that I might have jumped a little too much when the Texans beat the Colts, as their defense got shredded by…the Redskins? And their offense looked bad last week. Nevertheless, I still think they’re a good team not to be written off against another contender, and we shouldn’t have to worry much about the Raiders.
NE vs MIA- I’ve been impressed with the Dolphins so far, their only loss coming against the Jets. I’ve been much less impressed with the Patriots, especially their defense (30 points against the Bills?). I’m crossing my fingers, holding my breath and grimacing, cause betting against the Patriots offense is playing with explosives, but if the Dolphins defense can hold up, they’ll be able to put up some points. Dolphins win.
INT
ARI vs SD- Despite a 1-2 start, I’m very impressed with San Diego and their ability to move the ball offensively and score. It took a missed 29 yard FG for the Cardinals to beat the Raiders, so I doubt they’ll be able to do much against the Chargers. San Diego improves to 2-2.

Week 3 NFL picks

2010-09-22T16:53:00.000-07:00

Last week I “improved” to 9-7 bringing my overall record to 17-15. Let’s hope for better this week:
NFC

DET vs MIN- Jahvid Best powered the Lions offense to 32 points last week, yet with Shaun Hill at quarterback, they flopped their post onside kick opportunity to tie or win the game. Hill gets the start again, and don’t expect such an amazing performance from Best against the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Minnesota is at the point of desperation. 0-2 isn’t insurmountable, but its walking a tight line. They need to get things going sooner rather than later. Another loss will not only put them in a bad spot but put into question the team’s overall ability. Vikings right the ship and win the battle of the winless.

ATL vs NO- The Saints sure are good at finding ways to win, last time managing to force a deflected kick through the uprights. Reggie Bush is probably the most expendable super star in the league, so the Saints offense will continue to do its thing, however, “that thing” hasn’t put up many points so far this year. Atlanta showed some serious fire power against the Cardinals and giving them status as a contender. If the Falcons defense can contain the Saints, the Falcons are able to outshoot them for the win.

WSH vs STL- The Rams lost to the Raiders. Well, I suppose someone had to win that game. Meanwhile, the Redskins pulled a flip flop on my team analysis last week, with an impressive offensive showing, and a defensive performance that gave up 497 yards of passing. Nevertheless, the Rams offense is a few notches below that of the Texans. Redskins win.

CHI vs GB- NFC north rivalry and battle of early unbeatens. The Bears stunned a lot of people last week by beating the Cowboys, but if they beat the Packers, people won’t be stunned. Just a little surprised. I still expect the Packers to win. Excellent team all around and a much safer pick than Jay Cutler.

AFC

BUF vs NE- It seems the questions about the Patriots defense are legit after being beaten soundly by Mark Sanchez and the Jets that in week 1 had the offensive rhythm of hiccupping clarinetist. Good thing for them, they’re going up against the team with the worst point differential in the NFL, so not being in championship for isn’t a big deal. Patriots win.

CLE vs BAL- The Ravens defense that kept the Jets offense to that horrid start also kept the Bengals offense out of the end zone. The Browns probably become the first team to score a touchdown against the Ravens with an explosive play from Mohamed Massaquoi or Josh Cribbs, but the Ravens are too much for Cleveland to handle and Baltimore wins.

IND vs DEN- The Colts defense got back on its feet against the Giants and the Colts looked as dominant as ever. Simply a superior team to the Broncos, Colts win.

NYJ vs MIA- So far we’ve seen two versions of the Jets offense, one against a superb defense, the other against a poor one. The question is, which will show up against a good Miami one. The Dolphins have pulled out two “did just enough” wins and are showing the fight to win close games. Still not sure what to expect from the Jets, I’ll take Miami.

INT

SF vs KC- The Chiefs rode week 1 momentum to a narrow victory over Cleveland and a surprising 2-0 record. The 49ers picked up their game and took the defending champions down to the wire (as I expected, I might say) showing they have some potential. In the end, the Chiefs inefficient passing game prevents 3-0. 49ers pick up first win of the season.

TEN vs NYG- Chris Johnson gets back to work after facing the Steelers defense, and the Giants try to recover from being plain and simply outmatched by Indianapolis. Titans win.

PIT vs TB- The Steelers defense has won their team two games and now face the 2-0 team that I’m having the most trouble taking seriously. Tampa Bay shows its true colors against its first true test. Steelers move to 3-0.

CIN vs CAR- The Bengals managed a rare touchdownless victory last week, showing their defense’s resiliency. And next up is a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Bengals win.

DAL vs HOU- Could the Cowboys go 0-3? I think so. They’ve struggled through their two losses while the Texans have looked phenomenal, taking out the Colts with flair and shredding the Redskins defense that I was unbelievably high on last week. Struggling Cowboys, flame hot Texans. Something’s gotta give for the Cowboys to win. No, both of those things would have to give. Texans win.

PHI vs JAC- So Vick is the starter. A move that was more unexpected than the Saints Superbowl onside kick gives a whole new look to the Eagles offense. One that is dynamic and explosive rather than one that would be in the process of growing into an effective unit. While it remains to be seen how much the Vick we've seen the last two weeks is the real one, he’ll be fine against the Jaguars at least. Maurice Jones-Drew could have a big pound it out day against the Eagles defense, but otherwise, the Eagles contain the Jaguar offense. Eagles win.

OAK vs ARI- The Cardinals scored on an 85 yard touchdown run. Other than that, nothing. The week before, they struggled against the Rams, winning a close one. They’d have to make progress for me to simply be unimpressed. The Raiders got trounced in week 1, then won a close game against the Rams. The deciding difference here is that the term “struggled against the Rams” was not used. In this case, being worse than expected is on the same level as the Raiders “better than expected.” I’ll take the team with a tad more upside. Cardinals win.

SD vs SEA- San Diego went back to familiar form, defeating the Jaguars soundly, while the Seahawks went back to expected form, losing to the Broncos. Chargers continue to look good and win.

NFL week 2 picks

2010-09-15T06:37:00.000-07:00

NFL picks week 2
So these are going up a bit early cause I’m not sure when I’ll be able to get them up over the weekend and I’d prefer them to be early rather than late.

Before I get to the picks, a few things we learned from week 1:
I knew this already, but it was very much highlighted. My NFC picks (5-2)are much better than my AFC picks(2-5). Whether I just know the NFC better or whether the AFC just has a few more unpredictable teams, that’s how it is. My 8-8 start in week 1 was disappointing, but not entirely unexpected. Week 1 is always tricky and a few games like San Fransisco vs Seattle where one team is talked way up and the other way down cause everyone problems. I’m settling in to my laughing chair as I saw a surprising number of people pick the Raiders to be good or even make the playoffs. Jason Campbell isn’t going to change much moving from one bad organization to another. Finally, I’ve come to the realization that when God created our amazing bodies, he clearly didn’t have football in mind. I’m finding it very frustrating to be a fan of a sport where it’s a miracle not to have 2 or 3 key players lost for the year throughout the season, and having 2 go down week 1 isn’t entirely outrageous.

Now to the picks:
NFC

CHI vs DAL- I’m not ready to tag Jay Cutler as a bum yet, but you have to expect him to turn the ball over to the Dallas defense a couple times. Even if the Cowboys manage to shoot themselves in the foot as much as they did against the Skins, those turnovers will be the difference. Cowboys win.

PHI vs DET- I was a bit worried about the Stafford-Johnson combo, but with Stafford hurt and not much time for the two to get in sync even if Stafford plays, I’m far less threatened. Despite some serious lapses, the Eagles defense showed the ability to stop even the Packers offense when it counted. Should it come down to the end, they’ll be able to do the same. Eagles win.

ARI vs ATL- The Cardinals struggled with the Rams. The Falcons struggled with the Steelers defense. The latter is much more acceptable. Falcons win.

TB vs CAR- Not impressed with either team, but I’ve got to pick someone. Now I’m going to do exactly what I said not do last week. Rely on the Panthers good run at the end of last season as the only really positive thing going for either side. No, beating the Browns doesn’t quite count as positive, not yet. Panthers win.

NO vs SF- We know the Saints will be good. As for San Fransisco, they’re either not nearly as good as we thought they’d be, or (and I suspect the following) they’ll put up a good fight and make this a game. Either way, though, the Saints prevail.

AFC

BAL vs CIN- The Ravens offense was held to 10 points by the Jets defense. The Bengals defense isn’t the Jets defense, but expect them to figure things out a lot more than they did in week 1. This game comes down to the Ravens ability to stop the Bengals offense and I think they’re up to that challenge. Ravens win.

KC vs CLE- I never like to jump on the bandwagon of a lower echelon team that managed a high caliber upset, but fortunately, favoring someone over Cleveland doesn’t quite equate to jumping on a bandwagon. Nevertheless, expect a low scoring game that could turn out to be a kick/punt returning battle that could go either way. I’ll give the Chiefs the edge, though. Kansas City is 2-0?

PIT vs TEN- This game is in Chris Johnson’s hands, but comes down to Dennis Dixon/the absence of Roethlisberger. Last week, Dixon had a good outing…and still only scored 9 points (the OT touchdown was a one play 50 yard run). If Chris Johnson can do his thing, Titans roll.

NE vs NYJ- Another thing I learned from week 1 is that the Patriots offense deserves respect, and the Jets offense does not. The Patriots offense should bail out a weak defense on multiple occasions throughout the season. Mark Sanchez seems to have taken a good step back from his rookie season, and unless he reinvents the wheel of throwing the ball downfield and making plays, the Jets defense will be required to bail out their offense multiple times this year. That task just may be too much to ask against Tom Brady and Co. Patriots win.

JAC vs SD- In my opinion, San Diego’s struggles had as much to do with the rain and slop as it did with the excellent performance by Kansas City. Rain affected passes, slipping receivers (including on the final 4th down play in which the receiver may have otherwise caught the pass and tied the game), and crowd noise hobbled an offense that looked quite able to move the ball even so. Chargers correct mistakes, look great, and win.

INT

BUF vs GB- The Packers offense looked shaky at times and still put up 27 points against the Philly defense. No worries here about an offensive drop off from last year. And Buffalo…I don’t feel the need defend picking against them. It’s possible this will be the last time I’ll even talk about them in this column. Packers win handily.

MIA vs MIN- Concerns about Minnesota: the Favre-Harvin connection and the offense gelling in general. Concerns about Miami: They only beat Buffalo 15-10…um, okay, THIS might be the last time I talk about Buffalo. The positives: An extended week of practice should help the Vikings offense, so they should do better, and especially in week 1, a win is a win, no matter how ugly. They did what they needed to do to get the win, so they deserve credit. In the end, I’ll take Miami to pull the upset and have Favre wondering if it was a good idea to come back out of retirement.

STL vs OAK- It’s hard to know whether to attribute the Rams contention with Arizona to an improved St Louis team, or to the Warnerless Cardinals, but their performance was certainly better than that of the Raiders. Bradford gets his first NFL win.

SEA vs DEN- What do you do when a lowly team blows away a highly hyped team in week 1? First, don’t over react. The Seahawks and Matt Hasselbeck seem to have an offense worthy of recognition again. It remains to be seen if Denver will show any flashes of their 6-0 start last year or whether they will remain a mediocre team with limited potential. The Seahawks probably aren’t contenders yet, but Pete Carroll seems to have the team fired up to prove some people wrong this year, and they’ll be able to ride the momentum from last week to victory over Denver.

HOU vs WAS- I’ve seen that Washington/Dallas game several times before. The Skins offense doing almost nothing, and their defense bailing them out time and time again against all odds. Before, however, the offense they were shutting down was McNabb and the Eagles. So if the rest of fans haven’t figured out how good the Redskins defense is, take it from me. They’re disgusting. Despite this fact, however, their offense held them back to a 4-12 record last year, and it didn’t seem to get any better with McNabb present, though it was against the Dallas defense so it’s too early to judge. A tougher test for the Skins defense awaits in the Texans offense which can now apparently run the ball as good as they can throw it, which has to be frightening to anyone with Houston on their schedule. Until Washington’s offense shows me something, I can’t rely on their defense to carry them to wins against good teams. Texans win again.

NYG vs IND- Says NBC, “A game so intriguing it only happens once every four years!” Sorry, NBC. The game you’re talking about is the World Cup Final, not the battle of the Mannings. Now that I got that off my chest, the game. Last week the Colts defense was annihilated by Houston and they were still only an untimely turnover and a play or two away from being right there if not winning. This week the defense won’t have to be worried about Andre Johnson, so they’ll be able to play against the run a lot more. If I were the colts, I’d make the Giants prove that three touchdowns from Eli Manning to Hackeem Nicks is more than a one time show before I worried about it too much. Peyton beats Eli for the second time.

NFL week 1 picks

2010-09-10T19:36:00.001-07:00

So I don't know if anybody's still reading this. I'm going to try something this NFL season-give my picks for the winners of NFL games with a brief explanation or commentary. Hopefully it will be somewhat amusing/interesting.

WEEK 1
NFC

MIN vs NO-This is an after the fact post, but I did have New Orleans picked before hand for the reason that I didn't think Brett Favre would have had time to gel with the offense due to a late entry to training camp. I was dead on as Favre was especially out of sink with Percy Harvin.

DET vs CHI-I'm not about to put much faith in the Jay Cutler lead Bears, and the Lions are a team that is improving (well, at least we hope a few good draft picks and moves can improve from 2 wins over the last 2 seasons), however, the Lions aren't there yet. I'll take the Bears.

CAR vs NYG-I want to go with Carolina, but they're the prototypical team that was bad but then looked good down the stretch last season. I've found that both with players and teams, looking good down the stretch of a hopeless season usually doesn't translate into success next year. The Giant's season was opposite of Carolina's, but I'll take their more proven core of players to win.

GB vs PHI-Have to take Green Bay. Their offense is better than the Philly D, and barring an explosive performance by Kevin Kolb, the Eagles won't be able to keep up with the heralded NFC favorites. Look for the Eagles to be a lot better late in the season.

ARI vs STL-Derek Anderson fooled us into thinking he was good for one season. He'll be able to do it for a few weeks with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, especially against St. Louis. Cards win.

SF vs SEA-When a fairly big name player like TJ Houshmanzada leaves the team he played for his whole career for a new team in free agency, and then gets cut after an unproductive, unmotivated first season, that's probably not a franchise that's going anywhere. The 49ers, the expected surprise team, have a lot more upside. I'll put my gold on San Fransisco.

DAL vs WSH-If you thought the physicality of the Dallas defense made McNabb look bad at the end of last year, wait 'till you see him with only the Washington wide receivers to throw to. I'll take the Cowboys with little worries.

AFC

DEN vs JAC-I've never thought that Kyle Orton was all that bad of a QB. He'll get the job done against the Jaguars, who I have absolutely no idea what to expect from this year (other than a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. Fantasy team, baby!!!). Broncos.

OAK vs TEN-The last time I picked the Raiders, the lost by 40 or so points to a bad team (I think the Bills). I'd much prefer to take the Titans who might be that pesky team that the really good teams just can't seem to put away with Chris Johnson and Vince Young QB scrambles to try to stop. Easy pick, Titans.

CIN vs NE-Chances are, I'm too high on the Bengals and too low on the Patriots, but it'll take learning the hard way for me to figure that out. Bengals.

MIA vs BUF-Miami. 'nough said.

IND vs HOU-Houston has the nostalgic appeal. The team that's been getting good but hasn't been able to crack the playoffs finally looking ready to be great with a big time week 1 division game to get it's magical season started. But nostalgia isn't a good sports law, especially when we don't even know how good they are yet. I'll take the team that should have been 16-0 last year.

BAL vs NYJ-The Ravens are my preseason Super Bowl pick. The Jets are the team that I think will leave its expectations the most unfulfilled. Yet for some reason, I'm taking the Jets. I'm going to hope this is some sort of uncanny gut feeling, not some sort of nostalgia.

SD vs KC-The Chiefs established themselves as a black hole last year by wiping the previous season's "from a nobody to a household name" player off the face of the earth. Matt Cassell who? I'll take the Chargers.

INT

CLE vs TB-If Tampa Bay does well, they might be an average team. I don't expect much. And they aren't the Cardinals in the playoffs, so Jake Delhomme should do well enough for the win. Browns.

ATL vs PIT-This one's a duzie. Picking Atlanta would be based entirely on them returning to what they were able to do two years ago. Picking Pittsburg would be based entirely on wanting to see a run-first college QB succeed in the NFL. So I'll go a different route. I'll base my pick entirely on Troy Polamalu's $1,000,000 insured hair. The Steelers defense is a heck of a lot better with Troy in there. Steelers.

Stay posted for weekly picks, probably appearing in the friday to saturday range.

Please, National League. Just add the DH

2010-04-25T11:05:00.000-07:00

Baseball. America’s great pastime. Ever wonder why it’s merely a pastime, rather than the most popular sport? Tradition mostly. While other sports continue to evolve, baseball is played pretty much the same as it was years ago. They’ve gotten bigger, faster, stronger, and hopefully better, but it’s still essentially the same game. They refuse to use instant replay, because we all know that taking a minute or two to look at a play is too long for a game that has a designated stretch time for fans. Take the Designated Hitter. The one major renovation to game play in a long while, yet baseball traditionalists hate it. No, the DH doesn’t make sense playing in your back yard, but when we’re talking about elite levels of play, it’s the only sensible option. Pitching at the major league level is incredibly difficult. Individuals devote their whole lives learning the trade. Hitting at the major league level is incredibly difficult. Individuals devote their whole lives to learning the trade. Sorry folks, but no one has two lifetimes to devote to anything, much less baseball. Asking a pitcher to hit is like asking the blacksmith to sing at the opera on weekends. Every once in a while, one of them might have enough natural talent to get by and not look completely terrible, but it’s not what they have been, or should be, working on. Yet, because people still find the double switch to be such a fascinating move of managerial brilliance, everyone who disagrees is labeled as unsophisticated. So, in the name of strategizing and sophistication, I’m introducing some rule changes to other sports.

Football. Every ninth defensive play, the quarterback has to play middle linebacker. Since everyone knows that Peyton Manning wouldn’t even be able to get off of a block by Darren Sproles, the whole defense will have to devise a scheme that essentially allows him to stand there and do nothing. Now that’ll make the game more exciting. And you know how in the best case scenario when the pitcher gets a hit, they barely let him run and certainly forbid him to slide so that he doesn’t get hurt? That one time when Peyton actually splits two blockers and finds himself one on one with the running back, he’ll be under strict orders not to so much as extend him right arm trying to make the tackle. Oh, the strategy! Once this rule takes effect, there’ll be no going back!

Basketball. Every ninth minute, the coaching staff has to go in and play and the players have to coach. Think of the strategy this’ll induce! Now age, size, and stature comes into play when you’re hiring a coach! Not to mention each team will have to hire a wardrobe design crew to come up with the most comfortable, athletic friendly clothes that also fit the NBA’s coaching dress code. Not to mention that those minutes will be extremely fan friendly. So bad that it’s great.

Golf. Every ninth shot has to be swung the opposite way. So Tiger Woods has to hit left handed. But get this. He still has to use his right handed clubs. So now on his eighth shot, he has to either lay it up for an easy shot or risk having to try to chop it out of the sand trap left handed.

NASCAR. Pretty simple. Pit chief drives every ninth lap. That way, just when you’ve started to build up speed and get things rolling, you have to stop and let the pit chief drive a lap, then switch again and start over.

Soccer. Every ninth shot, the goal keeper can’t use his hands. Now I think we can all agree on the brilliance of this rule. When that ninth shot is coming up, the defenders have to start playing tight to try and prevent a chip shot, the goal keeper has to switch to playing a completely different style, and soccer will have its equivalent of the foul shot. It should be so easy to score, but because everyone is so focused on getting off the right kind of shot because it’s so easy, certain players would struggle miserably, to the amusement of us all.

The basic point of all of this sarcasm being: If you’re the top level of a professional sport, don’t bring down the level of competition by asking players to do things that we all know they can’t do. Rally killing at bats by pitchers are not in the best interest of the sport. Not to mention that American League pitchers are forced to become more mentally tough because they face nine batters over and over. They don’t get a free pass every ninth hitter. But, then again, who am I to try and take away the enjoyment of watching pitchers take three ugly hacks at pitches out of the strike zone and walk back to the bench.

Bracket advice from someone who knows next to nothing about college basketball

2010-03-22T17:20:00.000-07:00

I'm a huge sports fan. Pretty much anything involving a ball and terrible officials is cool in my book. Of course with so many options out there, one can only have so many areas of expertise. So I stick to being able to break down the specifics of completely insignificant events in the second quarter of a football game. Basketball is not my thing. Somehow I can't bring myself to try to analyze a sport with such high scores. When you can turn on a game in the first half, see your team down by 15 points, and not be worried, there aren't enough significant events in the game to be able to appreciate the insignificant ones. That said, since everyone and their brother's coworkers fill out a bracket, I thought I would dish out my bracketology wisdom. Here my 10 rules to follow. Oh, and keep in mind that this applies only to people with any sense of decency that therefore only fill out one bracket (or at least one bracket per pool).
1) No lower seed than a 3 makes it to the Final Four. A lower seed makes it every now and then, but you'll kill a large handful of brackets before you finally get it right.
2) At the very minimum, take your 1 and 2 seeds to the Sweet Sixteen. Trust me. I broke that rule this year. I had Duke losing to Louisville. As a result, instead of missing on 2 lock Sweet Sixteen games due to collossal upsets, I missed out on 3. There are always big upsets, but going all out to get them right is like going all in with 4 cards in a row, hoping for a 9 in the river to complete your straight. It's like throwing a hail mary pass on 3rd and 1 in the middle of the 3rd quarter because it just might work. Just stick with what will probably happen, take a few upsets in stride and let other people suffer as the team they had getting upset makes a big run.
3) If you think you just have to pick some upsets (it does make it a bit more fun), go with the schools that have unique names. The Bucknells, Cornells, and George Mason's have done a lot more upsetting than the San Diego State's.
4) When it comes to 8 vs 9 and 7 vs 10 games, just go with whoever has a cooler name. It's too close to call anyway. Along with that:
5) As long as it doesn't break one of the previous rules, pick Gonzaga and Xavier to win atleast one game. Just try and tell me you won't feel some degree of satisfaction from picking from the two coolest names in the tourney.
6) If there's a 1 seed that everyone is chiming about how over rated they are, pick them to go far. People forget that being over rated doesn't mean that they're bad. An over rated 1 seed is still better than most 2's as well as everybody else. Since not as many people will have them going far, it's worth at shot.
7) Pick your favorite team to win less games than you think they will. You probably have an over-inflated view of their talent. And if they do make a run, you get to be a fan and watch them go. You'll be getting your reward. The bracket isn't everything.
8) Treat celebrity picks like celebrity political advice; Especially if it's from Obama.
9) If you're in a pool, know the fan base demographics of your co-competitors and avoid picking their teams to win it all like the plague. There's no worse feeling than being just a few points back of the leader going into the Final Four and realizing you have the same team winning.
10) Take my advice with a grain of salt. Every year I've played my bracket against a bracket that takes 100% favorites. Every year, my bracket has lost.

When the Whistle Blows

2010-03-20T10:08:00.000-07:00

The final seconds tick away. Parents and classmates clap. Players bend over for a few moments of rest before heading back to the sidelines, letting the major moments of the game pass through memory. It was a roughly played game with a disappointing outcome. As players criss-cross on the way to their respective benches, they avoid eye contact, remembering the dirty foul on their star player, the cheap shot behind the referee’s back, and the frequent shoving and jostling for position. At the moment, they want absolutely nothing to do with the other team, yet out of tradition, and fear of a coach’s punishment, they line up and go to congratulate the opponent. The teams pass each other, slapping hands and giving kudos 100 percent with their hands and mouths, and 0 percent with their hearts. And all this is done in the name of sportsmanship.

A long-standing tradition in high school sports, the team handshake following a game is generally viewed as a classy show of respect for the opponents. However, it all too often becomes a ritualistic exchange of scowls and sometimes unfriendly chatter. In order to prevent doing more harm than good, and to allow more freedom in expressing true sportsmanship, lining up and shaking hands with the other team after a high school game should not be a mandatory action.

Parents and fans may be surprised to find out that these exchanges aren’t always as positive as they seem. Yes, there are many times when it is a friendly exchange between players and coaches, and yes, lots of high school athletes do display good sportsmanship in victory or defeat. In hard-fought competitions, humiliating blow-outs, and rivalry games, however, post-game interactions can easily become less than friendly. Putting aside one’s anger, humiliation, or dislike of the opponent in the heat of the moment following a game takes a lot of self-control and maturity, something that many high school students simply don’t possess. While being gracious to the opponent despite the outcome is a quality trait that should be taught, if players haven’t learned it through years of post-game handshakes in youth leagues, then only coaches, parents, and other role models can effectively encourage them to display a better attitude.

As for the players who are genuinely interested in congratulating a specific player, the current system can actually hinder them from doing so. They might be able to exchange a few words with an opponent or two after the game on their way back to the sidelines, but players are usually encouraged to hurry back to get in line for the hand shake. Then, as the teams pass each other, there is about one second in which to say something to a specific player. After that, it’s hurry back for the coach’s post-game speech, load the bus, and get out of there, leaving minimal opportunities to show true, heartfelt sportsmanship.

What, then, is the solution? In almost all professional sports, the final whistle is followed by several minutes of mingling, shaking hands, and exchanging words with opponents. Some players take the time to congratulate several other players, and some head to the locker room right away. Players that are in the spotlight are commended for displaying good sportsmanship, and criticized when they do not. Thus, this informal system can actually encourage a more positive display of emotions. While it is easy to hide poor sportsmanship behind a mass handshake, leaving the field without talking to or at least shaking hands with an opponent is much more obvious. With the right influences from coaches or parents, a player would be more likely to linger on the field and find a few people to congratulate. Even if it starts only as another ritual, it is possible that the more personal interaction could change the player’s attitude.

Sportsmanship is an honorable display of character that athletes should strive to learn. Few ways of learning are more effective than simply putting something into practice, and an unstructured post-game system would allow an open setting for high schoolers to do so. When the whistle blows, will they be in a learning environment, or a ritualistic one?

Ode to the Miscellaneous things on my dresser

2010-02-12T09:39:00.000-08:00

To Silly Putty, the wondrous egg of childhood fun. I take it out and squish and squeeze. Then am reminded that air bubbles only pop so many ways and I put it back.
To Chinese Chess, Set, and other multiplayer games, sometimes I wish I were Zaphod Beeblebrox, or some other being with two heads, so I could play myself.
To my small collection of bobbleheads, sitting there perfectly still. You'd think I would put them on the floor. Or somewhere else where they could collect natural vibrations from around the house activities.
To the Lord of the Rings/The Hobbit box set, whoever put it into production quite miscalculated the space required. Cause now that the books have been taken out and read, the wear has rendered them wider than they were before, and The Two Towers must now be put in backwards for them all to fit. And it's still a tight squeeze.
To several decks of cards. I take you out hoping for some great mind boggling idea for a magic trick...and end up playing a mind numbing game of solitaire.
To my mug full of pens and pencils. I hate using pencils and all the pens are dead. Yet I still have my mug full of pens and pencils.
To the book Great Lies to Tell Small Kids, if you ever get the chance, you should read it.
To the thing with three pegs and a stack of rings that progressively get bigger on one of the pegs, perhaps it will provide about 10 seconds of puzzle solving until I remember how I did it last time.
To mom's tape and scissors, looks like I forgot to give those back. I guess I should go do that now.

Super Bowl 44

2010-02-08T11:08:00.000-08:00

The following is a run through of the Super Bowl from my perspective. All of this is what I wrote down at the time (though elaborated, since I didn’t have time to write everything down. Anything added after the game will be between “*”s). Enter my mind as I watched the game.

5:24- Pregame has been going for a while. Interviews of various players, past and present, including one of Plaxico Burress in jail. And just two years ago he was catching a Super Bowl winning touchdown. But the real point of interest here is the Peyton Manning interview. It was normal, nothing out of the ordinary, until they cued up the Jason Bourne theme in the background. At first I laughed, cause Peyton Manning doesn’t exactly make you think ‘super spy,” but the more I thought about it, what other player in the NFL would be more comparable to Jason Bourne? Peyton’s the best. Everyone wants to beat him. Everyone’s after him. Perhaps the position of running back in general would more accurately fit the ever chased Bourne profile, but I maintain that Peyton is football’s Jason Bourne.

5:29- The Super Bowl is known for advertisements, but what had to be the best marketing moment, *and after seeing all the commercials, I still agree* was before all the big commercials started. The add started with famous clips of Miss Teen South Carolina trying to explain American’s geographical ineptitude. All the viewers laugh. Then it shows Miss S. Carolina participating in “The Amazing Race.” Trust me. People will sit and watch that show just hoping someone asks S. Carolina a question. Ratings will skyrocket. Until S. Carolina is eliminated.

5:50- I’ve known a few Australians. Does anyone really have as strong of an accent as the voice for The Outback’s commercials?

5:52- Pregame analyst’s picks go 3-1 in favor of the Colts. I’m going to have to say 33-28 Colts. But go Saints.

6:08- They introduce the Saints, the crowd goes wild, and the players storm onto the field. And Saints coach Sean Payton stands there with a monotonous look on his face that in such an exciting moment could surely only be rivaled by Andy Reid.

6:12- Pizza Hut runs their $10 for any topping, any crust, any size commercial. With that deal, why would anyone get a small?

6:17- Players have taken the field, everyone is ready. All we have to do yet is sing the national anthem and flip the coin, right? Well, wait, first the Man of the Year award. Okay, it’s a nice gesture to do that on such a big stage. Oh, and then Queen Latifa sings “America the Beautiful.” Have we gotten so patriotic that now we need TWO “USA” songs? Our national anthem isn’t enough? But that’s not the outrage. One of the big Super Bowl betting lines was the over/under on how long it would take Carrie Underwood to sing the national anthem. But where were the betting lines on Queen Latifa? What if I wanted to bet the over on America the Beautiful? Nowhere did I see that opportunity. I could have lost 3 different bets before kickoff! (for those of you who don’t know me that well, insert sarcasm)

6:20- Sure, having people signing the lyrics to the national anthem is a nice gesture, but I’m quite certain that if I were deaf, the words to the national anthem are would be last on my list of things I wanted signed. I know the lyrics, it’s the national anthem! Would I like to know what the announcers are saying while a confusing play is being reviewed? Certainly.

6:23- Commercial comparing the design/engineering of golf clubs to the flight of a falcon and a fighter jet. There’s no way golf clubs are that complicated.

6:27- NFC wins the coin toss for the 13th year in a row…and there go the announcers stealing my thunder. Shoot, they even gave you the odds of that happening. Well, they weren’t the only ones aware of the possibility going into the coin toss, I was ready to pounce on that statistic as soon as the coin hit the ground, and I don’t even have teams of people feeding me all kinds of info. Kudos to me.

6:29- Colts cover the opening kickoff well. No Devon Hester repeat.

6:30- Dwight Freeney looks crippled. Don’t expect much from him.

6:33- Classic Manning to Clark across the middle to get the Colts started.

6:42- If people would have just waited and watched the Tebow commercial before making it into a huge controversy, I doubt people would have even realized it was a Pro-life add. No emphasis on Mrs. Tebow going against doctor’s advice to abort, just her saying how she almost lost him so many times. Had I not known the back story, I would have thought it was just a story about a difficult pregnancy. Good idea, Focus on the Family, bad execution.

6:48- Every time they show Manning on the sideline, I can only wish McNabb had that kind of focus and determination.

6:49- Tons of kids dream of playing in the Super Bowl and having highlights of you shown in slow motion. I doubt that when Marcus Colston was a kid he pictured that moment as him being the only player in the screen and letting a pass go right through his hands. He got good reps on the number of replays though.

6:52- CIS commercial. Somebody just made a killing selling the “slap in the back of the head” sound effect.

7:00- Correct me if I’m wrong, but that was probably the first time in Super Bowl history that someone with a last name that means “Boy” scored a touchdown.

7:03- Holding is called on the Saints during the ensuing kickoff, backing them up to the 10 yard line. As they go to another commercial break, the announcer says, “Things just got a little harder for Drew Brees and the Saints.” That’s the kind of analysis that they get paid the big bucks for.

7:06- After returning from a commercial break and only showing the kickoff before showing more commercials, the Saints run one play that takes us to the end of the first quarter. More commercials.

7:09- This really reminds me of last year’s Super Bowl. The Steelers dominated the first quarter to take a 10-0 lead. We’re still in for a game.

7:11- Probably a good call on the late hit out of bounds, but I have to wonder what defenders are supposed to do in that situation. The ball carrier *I think it was Reggie Bush* was turning the corner and diving close to the first down marker along the side line. It’s a race to the side line to pick up the first down or prevent the first down. If the defender pulls up at all, he makes it. If the defender doesn’t slow down and hits him in midair just moments after he goes out of bounds (which in real speed is virtually no time to react) it’s a 15 yard penalty. Seems like a lose-lose situation for the defender.

7:15- Haha. Great slo-mo shot of an official ducking a pass and simultaneously turning to watch the play.

7:20- Can we start a petition right now to not have two commercials in a row featuring guys not wearing pants?

7:28- The just showed Dwight Freeney highlights. I’m wrong already. But in my defense, apart from the sack, none of those highlights would have been shown if he weren’t battling an injury.

7:31- Wide Receiver Reverse: The ultimate second guess plays. The play bombed. A 7 yard loss. So we call it a terrible play call.

7:37- 3rd and goal at the 1 and they’re already talking about whether they should or shouldn’t go for it on 4th down.

7:38- A coach with the guts to go for it on 4th and goal after LOSING yards on 3rd down. I like it.

7:41- Colts make the stop: Manning greatness to ensue.

7:43- cough…ehem…I mean…three run plays and out is great, too…

7:46- the Saints just ran up and spiked the ball, letting a mere 10 seconds or so off the clock. McNabb was watching that, right? Brees didn’t line up behind the wrong lineman, nor did he fake back and forth before trying to spike the ball and end up getting sacked. Watch and learn, Donovan.

7:49- Halftime stat: colts 11-1 when leading at halftime. May I ask how that’s relevant? They won every game they tried to win and lost the games they didn’t try to win. So let’s try this one for size: Colts are 16-2 in games that they reached halftime.

7:50- So I really wanted to make a prediction that defenses would surprise a lot of people, and with a 10-6 halftime score, I would have been right. But alas I didn’t have the guts. Largely because I thought that no matter what the defenses did, scoring would take off in the second half. So offense, bail me out, please!

7:54- Bill Cowher says how much he loved Sean Payton’s decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 1 ½ yard line, because you have to play to win! Um, Bill, may I remind you of a certain AFC Championship game you coached against the Patriots? The Steelers were down by 13 points with about 10 minutes left and faced a 4th and goal from the 2. Did Bill Cowher “play to win?” Nope. He kicked a field goal! So, Bill, don’t try and act like you would have done the same.

7:58- “The Who” are doing the halftime show. Now think of your favorite current day band. I have good news! They might do the Super Bowl halftime show! …in about 30 or 40 years.

Several times during halftime- Thanks to Andy Hock for pointing this one out. One of the camera men must share my opinion of the halftime show, as several times they showed the lead singer…with a clock behind him counting down the time until halftime ends.

8:20- Onside kick! Who Dat gonna recover dat ball?

8:25- That onside kick really fired up the players. Lots of extracurricular activity going on after the plays. Expect more.

8:26- Screen pass to Pierre Thomas for a touchdown. Wow, that catch and run took me back to the Brian Westbrook glory days.

8:29- Yup, tempers are flaring.

8:34- Thing of beauty pass from Manning to Dallas Clark. Dropped perfectly into Clark’s hands over two jumping defenders. *and a great sideline shot of the play as we headed into the next commercial break*

8:35- 7:30 left in the 3rd quarter, and it happened. I started trying to visualize the post game celebration. My desire to know the future has irrevocably kicked in now. I will now overanalyze each score and lead change into trying to predict the final outcome.

8:36- A Joseph Addai rushing touchdown…and they show the Manning family cheering in their luxury box. Well, they had to show the Mannings at some point, I guess.

8:43- Still waiting for the Saints to go downfield. Apart from the long incompletion on their first possession, everything’s been short.

8:47- In order for my final score prediction to come true, all we need is the Colts to score 16 more points, and the Saints 12. I’d say my chances are zero.

8:50- Very much enjoyed the shot of Jeremy Shockey, who was once one of my most disliked players, getting crunched in slow motion.

9:01- Very impressed with the officiating so far. I don’t have a thing to complain about (apart from the previously mentioned dispute over the late hit out of bounds rule). Hopefully I didn’t just jinx it.

9:05- Visio Droid commercial. Whoever thought to bring back the fat guy dancing to the Numa Numa song is a genious.

9:08- Nine minutes left in the game and it seems like there’s been a whole lot more offense than 17-16.

9:13- That official made the most of his 5 seconds of fame while calling the 2 point conversion attempt incomplete. Drastic incomplete signal, followed by an over emphatic juggling motion, followed by another dramatic incomplete signal or two.

9:16- Upon review, the 2 point conversion is good! If not, a serious rant will follow.

9:17- The official that made the call after the challenge did NOT make the most of his 5 seconds of fame.

9:25- The eco-friendly police take the cake as the worst commercial

9:27- Did not see that interception coming. I’m kinda bummed, though. I expected the Colts to tie it up, and then we’d get to see Drew Brees try to define his career by taking his team down the field for the game winning score with at least less than three minutes left. Instead, we get to see Peyton Manning try to build on his already defined career by trying to score two touchdowns in three minutes. It’ll be exciting if he does it, but if he doesn’t, not so much.

9:35- Long pass play takes us to the 2 minute warning with the Colts in good field position. Three time outs left, and they might make this interesting yet.

9:40- Anyone doubting how great Peyton Manning is, should think about this: What other QB could be down by 14 with 1:30 left and make you think, “Hey, they still have 3 timeouts! If they score here and stop the Saints, he’ll get the ball back with no time outs and a whole minute to go the length of the field. Look out saints!” *of course perhaps I was the only one to think this. And perhaps rightfully so. But it’s an interesting thought, nonetheless.*

9:41- 3rd down from the 4 and they run it? Along with Peyton calling a timeout that he regretted moments later, there goes the theory listed above.

9:42- Impressive win for the Saints.

9:43- Shot of Saints owner celebrating. Good thing for him it didn’t come down to a field goal.

9:44- The Saints know teamwork…except when it comes to not getting in the way of the guys trying to douse the coach in Gatorade. Ah, well, though. It’s their first ever championship.

That wraps up my timeline. Now for some post game thoughts.
This Super Bowl was a lot more bland than last year in that I don’t have any horrible calls to complain about, nor do I have John Madden to make fun of (though I hate to do it, I must admit that I really did miss having Madden ramble his way through the Super Bowl). But there were several interesting moments to comment on throughout the game.

Perhaps the most subtly strange was during an NFL commercial there was a short shot of a kid wearing a Brett Favre Jets jersey. You’d think the NFL would stay up to date on that kind of thing.
The onside kick to start the second half was unlike anything I’ve ever seen. It was certainly the “yup, it’s the Super Bowl” moment, as players ignored officials trying to clear up the scrum pile and kept going back in. I’ve never seen a fumble pile take anywhere close to that long to sort out, nor have I ever seen both teams that entirely convinced that they had come up with the ball.

Undervalued play of the Game would have to go to Lance Moore and his 2 point conversion catch. Not only was it an incredibly athletic fusion of the catch and the stretch into one motion, but we didn’t realize he had done anything special until we saw the replays (the game shot just showed his back, and looked like an incomplete pass), and at that point we were all focusing on whether or not he scored. In addition as the Colts started driving back down the field, those 2 points put the Colt’s backs against the wall and gave the Saints breathing room. After all, worst case scenario, if the Colts score, it’s tied. Without those 2 points, a Colts score would put the Saints against however much clock was left to get a field goal. Am I saying that Tracy Porter might not have been sitting on Reggie Wayne’s route quite so much if a touchdown would have put them behind? Not necessarily, the Saints play and aggressive defense, so it’s likely he would have made the interception anyway, however that is something to think about.

The post game interviews are notorious for players/coaches/owners going overboard in proclaiming their fans/city/players/coaches/etc to be the very best. We had that. But the Saints owner took it to a whole new level, saying that the City of New Orleans and the State of Louisiana were “Back and showed the whole world.” Understandable enthusiasm, yet pathetic world view. Sure, a few people around the world watch the Super Bowl to see what American Football is all about, but they were proven nothing. Come to think of it, nothing was proved to me about New Orleans or Louisiana by the Saints winning the Super Bowl.

A long, lingering shot of Drew Brees holding his 1ish son during the postgame celebration led to my favorite announcing line: “That’s the most precious moment that he could share with his son.” Change the word “share” to “have” and I’ll agree. But I’m pretty sure that while it was a great moment for Drew Brees, all that was running through the kid’s head was, “Why is everyone yelling? Hey look, it’s raining paper. I don’t feel this small around most people. Where’s mom?”

So another season is in the wraps. While it’s nice to see a little guy win here and there, it was very enjoyable to see the #1 seeds from both conferences face off in the Super Bowl. They were the best from start to finish, well done by both of them. The game won’t go down as a Super Bowl great, but it was a good game with few turnovers and few penalties. Simply two great teams going at each other, a treat we don’t get in this magnitude very often.
-Ben Herr

Say What?

2009-07-22T06:54:00.000-07:00

It's not very often that I laugh when I hear about a new reality TV show. The premises of shows have become either completely ridiculous (Amish in the City!!!) or incredibly repetitive (I hear Octo-mom is getting a show to go along with all the other ones about families with tons of kids), but a series that is about to start filming isn't one where the idea is out there, but rather...well, here's the basis:

A pro athlete will challenge other pro athletes in their respective sports. He will take on Ben Roethlisberger in some sort of a football challenge, Michael Phelps in swimming, Oscar de la Hoya in boxing, Albert Pujols in baseball, Serena Williams in tennis, Misty May-Trenor and Kerri Walsh in beach volley ball, and is hoping to book Lance Armstrong in cycling when the Tour de France is finished.

This is actually something I've wanted to see for quite a while. Sure I'd prefer whole teams going at each other in different sports, but this would have done quite nicely. The star of the series says that he came up with the idea and figure fans "would really want to see an athlete play another sport." Indeed I would. I would love to see a Lebron James, a Ladanian Tomlinson, a Derek Jeter, a Tiger Woods, a Lance Armstrong, or some elite athlete switch sports for a bit (though the Michael Jordan experiment was an utter disaster). Unfortunately, that's not what we get here. We get Shaquille O'neal. Yup, we get all 7'1" of him. And all 325 pounds of him. Yes, it's okay to laugh as the mental pictures start flooding your mind. Yes, Shaq is (or at least was) an elite basketball player. But for his size and his ability to use it. He may be extremely athletic relative to his size, but... a 7'1" body doesn't cut through water at all like Phelps does. And the thought of him trying to hustle back and forth from one side of the tennis court to the other as Serena Williams calmly places the ball on alternate sidelines is quite amusing.

While Shaq concedes that he isn't very skilled at tennis or baseball (a home run derby), he says he expects to exceed at football and swimming. At swimming? Versus Michael Phelps? Suddenly, Chad Ocho Cinco's claim that he could beat Michael Phelps doesn't sound quite so outlandish.

Where the real catch comes in is that O'neal and his rival will negotiate a handicap. No kidding. And it gets even better with Shaq's quote, "Bragging rights is always better than any monetary prize" in response to the fact that there won't be a cash prize to the winner of the event.

I find the bigger question to be, how could anyone find any reason to brag about winning this event? What are they supposed to say?

"I, Michael Phelps, Olympic record holder and double digit gold medal possessor beat a 325 pound 7 footer who is over ten years my elder in a swimming race?"

"I, Albert Pujols, one of the best sluggers in the major leagues, hit more home runs than a 7'1" NBA center who's hand/eye coordination was only good enough to hit a little over half his free throw attempts?"

And with adequate handicaps figured in, how is Shaq supposed to brag?

"I, Shaquille O'neal, beat Serena Williams in a tennis match despite each game starting at 'game point-love' in my favor?"

"I, Shaquille O'neal, beat Lance Armstrong in a cycling race despite the fact that I started at the top of the hill and raced down, and he started at the bottom and raced up?"

I don't know, perhaps I'm misunderestimating the big fellow's athletic prowess. But I do know the handicaps will have to be significant (though probably not quite to the extreme of those mentioned above). Sure, handicaps can be fun in order to level the playing field, but I don't see how any bragging rights can come from winning a handicapped event.

Now don't get me wrong, the show will be plenty entertaining, no doubt (though I doubt I'll ever see any of it). I just have a hunch that "Shaq VS" will be funny for the same reason as, say, tryouts for American Idol are funny.

Lebron a bad sport?

2009-06-01T04:36:00.000-07:00

Lebron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers had just lost in the NBA semi-finals. After leading a team with mediocre surrounding talent to the best record in the regular season, it was over. So Lebron James left the court and went home. Now he is drawing all kinds of criticism for not shaking opponent's hands or speaking to the media that night. As a star player, and team leader, he should have demonstrated good sportsmanship, so they say. And I agree to some extent. But looking back on my own limited sports experience, I have to ask the question, what is true sportsmanship?

It was my senior year of high school; my only year playing varsity soccer. It was the season I had been anticipating every since I had started playing for Penn Manor. And we started off 0-4. Next on the schedule was McCaskey, an inner city school known much more for their basketball than their soccer, so it was the perfect time to get a win and get our season moving in the right direction. But on a wet, rainy day, we slopped our way into a second overtime period, tied 1-1. With about six minutes left, a McCaskey player got the ball just outside the box shot it crisply, but straight at me on one hop. It was a simple forward dive to scoop it up, but when I lowered my arms, the ball slipped through, and went between my legs for the game winning goal. Heading off the field in disbelief, I had absolutely no desire to ceremonially shake the opponent's hands. Given the nature of our coach, however, I knew I had no choice unless I wanted tomorrow's practice to be more than miserable. So I took the keeper's position at the front of the hand shake line and proceeded. As we passed the other team, I slapped hands, saying nothing. If I made any eye contact, it was a scowl. Looking back, I see no sportsmanship in this, only anti-sportsman ship. It was even to the point that when one of my friends (who was on McCaskey's JV team and sitting beside the bench) called my name several times, trying to get my attention in order to offer his condolences, and I completely ignored him.

Now before I go any farther, let me say this. I could have made the choice to have a better attitude. I could have been more gracious in defeat. But this was at least the second game in the young season that I felt like I had single handedly blown. In a way, I felt like I owed it to the rest of my team to not just walk off the field like everything was great. But given the way I carried myself, and knowing how I would act while "congratulating" the other team, would it have been more sportsman like to have sat down on the bench and said nothing, done nothing to the other team? Isn't there a point when, though it may be the more difficult and criticizable, the right thing to do is sit down and bypass the token and somewhat legalistic exchanges, because you know you might do something worse in the heat of the moment?

Now this is entirely speculation, I don't know what was/is going on inside Lebron's head, but I wonder if some of the same reasoning was behind Lebron's comments. When asked if he had spoken to Dwight Howard or any of the Magic players, he responded,

"No, I haven't, I send him an email last night congratulating him. One thing about me you gotta understand, it's hard to congratulate someone after just losing to them. I'm a winner, it's not being a poor sport or anything like that. Someone just beat you up, you're not going to congratulate them on beating you up, that doesn't make sense to me. I'm a competitor and that's what I do. It doesn't make sense for me to go over and shake some one's hand."

While it's easy for these comments to sound like they came from a poor sport, I do have to wonder whether it was Lebron's attempt to articulate, "You know, it was a tough loss, I was obviously disappointed, and as the leader of this team, I felt like we let a lot of people down. I knew that if I would have went over to congratulate them it wouldn't have been from the heart, it would have just been tradition; going through the motions." Again, I could be completely wrong on this one. But when people go to one extreme to criticizing someone, for not legalistically shaking hands in the name of good sportsmanship, you have to go to the other extreme to defend them. This may or may not be the case with Lebron, but sometimes the right thing, the mature thing, the sportsman like thing to do won't look as good to the public eye as the standard response does. But it is the best thing.

Finally, a story of a time when I decided to sit down. My church youth group was in Honduras on a missions trip, and one evening, we went with some of the Honduran church members to play soccer at a rented indoor field. The way the small field was marked was: a midfield line, and a goal box line roughly six yards in front of each goal. Being the highly skilled ball handlers that many Central American players are, they played by the rule that you could only score from inside the goal line. I knew that there weren't many soccer players in our group, and those of us that were (myself included) lacked the precision passing skills that were required to set up such close range shots, so I asked if they could lay that rule aside for the evening cause we would hardly be able to score that way. In my head, I wanted to ask if they could trash the rule so we could actually play soccer instead of having a competitive passing drill, which was what their style of play looked like compared to the physical style I'm used to, but I elected to be respectful of them as the host culture.

So things were going great, we were allowed to shoot from farther out which helped our lack of skills considerably. But part way through the evening, some of the Honduran players asked if we could all revert back to "inside the box scoring" because they, quote, "couldn't play this way." While the rest of my group was saying, "Sure, whatever," I was thinking, "What do you mean you can't play this way?! Just cause you're allowed to shoot from far out doesn't mean you can't shoot from close up! You can still play the same way!" As I expected, scoring became much less frequent. Nine times out of ten, getting close enough to shoot meant getting close enough for the keeper or defender to take the ball. And we were divided into four teams, a new team went on to replace the team that got scored on. So with goals now only coming every 5 to 10 minutes, that meant a lot of standing around, and a lot less fun. It also meant a lot of time for me to get more and more frustrated. I tried to make my case a time or two to the people around me, but was basically just told to get over it. So I got more and more frustrated and eventually angry. But finally it seemed that my youth pastor bailed me out. We were the next team to finally get to go back on the field, and he buried a brilliant shot from the side of the field into the top corner. "Alright, it's finally time to play again, just forget about how irritated you are" I thought, but just then the goal was called back because apparently my youth pastor was a few micro inches outside of the goal box. That about put me over the top. I knew I was one unsympathetic comment, or one more called back goal from saying or doing something I'd regret. So I walked off the field and sat down by myself in the bleachers. I'm pretty sure that the Hondurans thought I was quitting just because I didn't get things my way. My peers probably thought I was just an overly competitive player who couldn't take a laid back, friendly game for what it was. I think the only person who understood why I sat down was my youth pastor who came and talked to me. But regardless of how bad it may have come across, I'm convinced that it was better than anything I would have done had I continued playing.

I'll never know what Lebron's reasoning for not shaking hands was, but if it was at all like what I expect, then I have a lot of respect for him. Walking off the field in Honduras was difficult. You know people are going to judge you. But in the long run, you know you've made the right choice.

How much wood? Answering the old question

2009-05-29T12:51:00.000-07:00

How much wood could a woodchuck chuck, if a woodchuck could chuck wood? Once the fast delivery of this tongue twister has been mastered, have you ever stopped and wondered what the answer to the question is? I hope to find an answer, or at least be able to give a ballpark estimate.
There’s a series of distinctions that need to be made before finding an answer, and here is the order:
1) The definition of “chuck.” Determining what the woodchuck is supposed to be doing is key.
2) “IF.” The word “if” implies that a woodchuck cannot “chuck” so the next step is to decide what must happen in order for the woodchuck to be able to “chuck.”
3) Now that we’ve figured out that “A woodchuck can chuck wood,” we need to decide how effectively it can do so, therefore determining how much. After completing this step, we will hopefully have an estimated answer.

Step 1:

I find it impossible to determine which definition of “chuck” is intended; at least not certainly enough that the margin of error would not throw the accuracy of the answer so far off that it would be rendered irrelevant. So the best option is to get three different answers from the three most likely definitions: a) “to throw or toss,” b) “a device used for holding drill bits,” and c) “food, provisions.” Having chosen three definitions, we proceed to step 2.

Step 2: Let’s define “a piece of wood” as the triangular cut of wood that is typically used for camp fires: about a foot long, and 4-6 inches in diameter.

2a) “To throw or toss.” Now “IF” must be determined. Can a woodchuck throw wood? Woodchucks are solid, tough creatures, but they have short limbs. So while they have the strength required, they lack the proper build. I’m no woodchuck expert, but given their body shape, and most likely lower coordination, throwing firewood is something a woodchuck could do marginally at best. So it needs to be clever. Since all the lists of smartest animals were completely void of woodchucks, I’ll rule out it being able to create any kind of device such as a catapult. Instead, in order to chuck, a woodchuck needs a perch, say, a 20 foot cliff. A woodchuck would be able to apply enough horizontal force on a piece of wood to toss it off a small cliff. Therefore, the woodchuck would be able to chuck.

2b) “A device used for holding drill bits.” This one presents a grammatical problem, as this definition of “chuck” is a noun, and the tongue twister uses “chuck” as a verb. However, given the context, I think we can concede that placing a piece of wood into the chuck could be called “chucking the wood.” It may not be the easiest task for a woodchuck to complete, but I have no doubt it would be capable.

2c) “Food, provisions.” I find this definition to be the least likely due to its specifications. We all know that the only way a woodchuck could chew up wood (food) and use it as its dwelling (provisions) is if there was some beaver in its pedigree. Since woodchuck-beaver cross breeds are few and far between, one has to question whether this was the definition intended by whoever penned the phrase, but the author of a tongue twister is going for functionality, not accuracy, so this possibility cannot be discarded. So what must happen in order for a woodchuck to “chuck?” It must be part beaver.

Step 3: Having previously set “pieces of wood” as a camp fire log, let’s set “chucking effectiveness” at a rate of how many pieces of wood the woodchuck can chuck in an hour.

3a) “How effectively can a woodchuck toss wood?” The act of the woodchuck chucking the wood off of the small cliff will take little time, maybe ten seconds max. This would mean that a woodchuck can chuck wood at a rate of 360 pph (pieces per hour). However, in all likely hood, the wood isn’t already at the top of the cliff, so the woodchuck will have to drag the small log all the way to the top. No easy task, but since we’ve already established woodchucks as strong, sturdy creatures, I’ll estimate that it will take about 8 minutes to drag one log up the hill and throw it off the cliff. So the final answer is: 7.5 pph.

3b) “How effectively can a woodchuck put wood in a chuck?” Since chucking wood in this way takes a bit more coordination, I would guess that it would take a woodchuck about 20 seconds to chuck one piece of wood. But here we run into even more problems. The decided size of the log won’t fit into many chucks if any. It will need cut into let’s say six pieces in order to be able to be chucked. So first, the woodchuck will have to drag the wood to the nearest beaver (unless it is part beaver itself, but not likely). This could be a long way away, or quite close. We’ll say it will take about 20 minutes for the woodchuck to take a piece of wood to the beaver. The beaver will need about three minutes to finish servicing the log, then the woodchuck will have to drag six small pieces of wood back to the chuck. Since the log is now in pieces, it will be more difficult, and will probably take about 30 minutes. After all of this, it will have to chuck each piece of wood, which at 20 seconds per piece will take two more minutes. So the total time is 55 minutes. In this case, a woodchuck can chuck wood at a rate of 1.09 pph.

3c) “How effectively can a woodchuck use wood for food or provision?” Chucking wood is what beavers do best, whether it’s building a house, or chomping down on a tree, but the question is how well a beaver-woodchuck cross breed can chuck wood. Looking specifically at using wood to build a house, a beaver is quite proficient, I would guess it could use a log every minute and a half (giving it time to push the wood from shore, to the dam, put it in place, and swim back to shore for the next one.) Since this prototype cross breed is half beaver, half woodchuck, we’ll say it has only half the effectiveness, therefore taking three minutes per log. Do the easy math: 20 pph.

So how much wood could a woodchuck chuck, if a woodchuck could chuck wood? If you can figure out how long the woodchuck is chucking wood, you can now find three answers.

Tribute to John Madden

2009-05-09T09:51:00.000-07:00

Several weeks ago, longtime football broadcaster John Madden announced his retirement. As many of you know, Madden has long been the punchline of many of my jokes, however, today I've had a change of heart. So, here is my tribute to John Madden. My tribute to some of his incredible feats and accomplishments.

-Congratulations, John Madden, for your perseverance at trying to master the broadcast etch-a-sketch. We all know how difficult and confusing it is to use it. It wasn't your fault you were always drawing circles around the wrong players, that machine has a mind of its own. Yet you never showed hesitation while trying to show us how the slot receiver ran a crossing route...er...the outside receiver came across the middle to make the catch. We never would have been able understand what had happened on the previous play without all those yellow scribbles.

-Congratulations, John Madden, on being probably the only person with your level of fame, to NOT show up first on a youtube search of your name. What's the title of the first video? "Frank Caliendo." Go figure, such a titanic household name, yet you don't actually show up until 5th in the previously mentioned search. That's what I call impressive!

-Congratulations, John Madden, on providing building blocks for the country's greatest impersonator/comedian. Frank Caliendo is now known for being able to pull off a convincing impression of pretty much anyone famous, but it all started with his famous, "Now if the quarterback, throws the ball, an-an-and the receiver catches it, in the end zone, well that's gonna be a touchdown!" Frank Caliendo has made so many people laugh so many times, and just think, you helped start it!

-Congratulations, John Madden, on being one of the few people who could see a steak being prepared in a stadium and see it as an opportunity to make fun of vegetables. I'm sure you remember going off on a tangent about how green beans aren't good when a shot showed a Pittsburgh vendor piling sauteed onions on a large slab of meat.

-Congratulations, John Madden, for making so much out of so little. All the other people in the broadcast biz can formulate sentences better than you can, can find informative pieces of information better than you can, can speak more clearly than you can, and can analyze games better than you can, yet you still got your voice all over prime time games AND the biggest NFL video game. You are a testament to beating the odds and overcoming disabilities.

-Finally, congratulations, John Madden, for picking the perfect time to retire. You left your spot in NBC's Sunday Night Football broadcast booth just before a season in which you would have done three Eagles games. If I would have had to listen to you announce three of my team's games the same season, within six weeks none the less, yours truly just might have gone crazy.

Happy, retirement, John. You will not be forgotten.

How we think and keep score in tennis

2009-04-01T13:43:00.000-07:00

I've been told my many people that I have an interesting and certainly unique way of thinking. I have no doubt this is true, but find the way we determine how other people think to be interesting. After all, how do people know that I think differently? They've never been inside my head. So certainly it's all derived from how I express my thoughts. That's odd. I see a significant difference between what someone thinks, and how they express those thoughts. Some people just start talking, and eventually, after a lot of unrelated, somewhat pointless words have been said, they have made their point. Does that mean that they are scatter brained and incapable of nailing down a thought or idea? No. Some people won't say a word until they have ever loose corner of their thought tied down, so when it comes out, it's polished, perfected, and to the point. Are these people all more intelligent? No, different people have different ways of expressing their thoughts.

So how do we really know when people are thinking differently? How do we know they aren't just verbalizing differently, and that's not even mentioning how we interpret things differently. Yet we all think that by the time someone's initial thoughts have gone through at least two sets of unpredictable filters, we can tell how they think. Interesting. But I suppose that's all we can really do. After all, we can't get into other people's heads, so all we can judge is what comes out of their mouth (or out of their fingers in the form of words).

It's kind of like colors. For all we know, I could see the color named "green" as blue, you could see the color "green" as green, and someone else could see the color "green" as purple, but we've all learned to call it green, so nobody knows the difference. Hey, if I was God, I'd do all kinds of stuff like that because no one would ever be able to figure it out. Hmm, perhaps this explains why there are such varied opinions and tastes when it comes to color schemes.

The irony of this is that you're probably reading this thinking, "This Ben kid really thinks about things really differently."

Well, that was interesting. I was trying to figure out how to start a piece on the scoring method for tennis, and that evolved. I'm not even sure how anymore. I guess that just shows how many different directions my mind can go. From "how can we tell how other people think" to "who in the name of Uncle Sam came up with tennis scoring?" Whoever it was went to all ends to make sure that none of it made sense.

First of all, the first score is worth 15 points. There are two logical reasons for making a score worth more than 1 point:
1) There is a way to score less. A score in basketball is worth 2 (or 3) because there are also free throws worth 1 point.
2) To proportionalize the valuable of different scores. A touchdown is (usually) 7 points, and a field goal is 3. Somehow or another, the inventors came up with that proportion given the difficulty of each feet.

So why go by 15's? 1-2-3 seems just as feasible as 15-30-45. There in lies the next oddity. The scoring isn't 15-30-45, it's 15-30-40. Beyond the blatant illogicality of this lies a deeper problem. Well not problem, more of a personal gripe. I'm pretty big on proportionality. When you look at the score, say, 40-15, it would generally imply that the party in the lead has scored roughly 2.6 times as many points than the losing player. However, since it's actually 3-1, they've scored 3 times as many points. So the score, which should be a simple, easy "count your way to 5" system is so abnormal that it doesn't even reflect the proper proportion of the score.

And it gets even better! Once a player with 40 "points" makes another "score," they are given the win...unless the other player has 40 "points" as well, because you have to win by two "points, no scores." (See, it's so much harder to explain the rules with this scoring system.) In that case, the score goes to "40-advantage." That makes some sense, but why can't it be 50-40 (or 40-50)? After a "40-adv" play, if the "40" player scored, it goes back to "40-40." Is that because 50-50 is too difficult to remember? Wouldn't it just be easier to keep adding on to the score than to start cancelling them out after a few volleys? Beyond that, however, just going back to 40-40 over and over doesn't at all reflect the progress of the game. If the score is 80-80 (although, knowing the guy who came up with all this, it would be 67-67), you know that they've been going back and forth a couple times; neither player able to win enough volleys in a row to get the win. If the score is 40-40, who know how long they've been going at it? Did they just get tied up at 40 for the first time? Have they been at the 40-40 or 40-adv stage for several go arounds? Who knows.

It's all backward and senseless. Oh, I know, someone had a unique idea, and I shouldn't be scolding them for being creative just because I don't like their idea. Well, yeah, creativity is great. I love being creative. But creative engineers should be building cool looking skyscrapers, not designing the traffic grid. It's creative engineers who design the cities that are the most difficult to navigate through by car (I've heard this about Hong Kong, and though I never drove there, I can certainly see that this is the case), and it's the straight forward, detail oriented engineers that give you boring skylines. So if you're that set on being creative and different, don't design the ground work, design what comes off of the ground. In other words, make innovations to how tennis is played, don't change the way we've been counting since preschool.

Salaries

2009-03-28T18:09:00.000-07:00

As much as we can't stand pro athletes for the money they make, I've always stood to the fact that given the enormity of the industry they're in, they're paid at least somewhat properly. What's ridiculous, is the size of the industry. Okay, why doesn't everyone try and think of what job has the greatest combination of difficulty and importance. For example, coal mining: Extremely difficult, but one coal miner? Not all that important (as far as business is concerned). A little more time to think...okay. One of the jobs I keep coming back to is the President. May not be #1 on the list, but that's a debate for another time. All in all, the stress, public pressure, and impossibility of the president's job would merit one of the higher salaries right? $400,000 a year. Certainly a pretty solid amount of money, but...here's a few persons who make just "a little bit" more...for doing a lot less.

Todd Pinkston: I apologize, Eagles fans, for mentioning the name. For those of you who don't remember the good old days of #87, here's a brief recap:
Todd Pinkston, WR. Notorious for dropping easy passes and shying away from contact. His attributes include: Being several steps behind his man with an easy 80 yard touchdown awaiting when he suddenly stopped and braced himself against the safety who was closing in, letting the pass fall incomplete. Playing as the #1 receiver in an NFC championship game against Carolina and catching less passes than Carolina cornerback Ricky Manning Jr. And dropping even more. After making one really nice catch in Superbowl XXXIX, heading to the locker room midway through the first half with a deer in the headlights look on his face that seemed to say, "Wow, I had no idea the Superbowl was this nerve racking. I'm glad this cramp gives me an excuse not to go back out there." Need I say more? So how about his pay?
Over Pinky's final four seasons of bumbling mediocrity at best, he racked in $6,598,100. To put it in perspective, that's over four times the amount the president makes in the same amount of time.

How about another Philadelphia "Great?" How many of you remember Jose Mesa? If you are still reading this, you 1) are not a Phillies fan, or 2) just resisted a strong urge to put a brick through your monitor. Now, Jose Mesa had two abilities that aren't found in very many Major League Baseball players. The first uncanny knack was to find a way give up game losing home runs almost day in and day out. Fortunately for Jose, his other amazing talent was being able to find a job. Despite his loaded portfolio of blown saves, he was somehow able to convince teams that he would magically go back to the form he was in during his one or two good seasons way back.
During this beach ball thrower's highest paid eight year stretch, he wasted $23,700,000 of his employer's money. That's over $20,000,000 more than our commander in chief was paid during the same stint. And over seven times more money.

Jake Long: The offensive tackle out of Michigan was the first pick in the 2008 NFL draft. So the money he got paid was based off of what he did in college. No real NFL performance to back it up. What did he make in his first NFL season? $6,225,000. Over fifteen times more than Obama will make in his first year in office.

Okay, so even though it is just sports, those aren't the easiest sports jobs. What about the New York Yankees manager? I've always thought baseball managers had the easiest coaching jobs in all of sports, so a manager who has over $200,000,000 worth of players to work with? $2,600,000. Per year. But at least the Yankees make the playoffs nine years out of ten, and when they don't, they have a record over .500.

Now take my good old Baltimore Orioles. They're a team that finished 68-93 last year and haven't had a winning season in over a decade. By common logic, how many of their players deserve more money than the president? Umm...let's see...1-2-3-ZERO. But believe it or not, 26 members of the 2008 Baltimore Orioles had a more profitable year than George W. Bush. Financially, at least (although otherwise could also be debated). Shouldn't there be a rule that if you don't win even close to half of your games and vastly under perform, you shouldn't make as much as the president?

Dikembe Mutombo: Unlike some of the other's I've mentioned, Mutombo had a great basketball career. While I couldn't find any current information, I did run across a rather stunning figure from one of the last few seasons. During a season for the Knicks in the tail end of his career, Dikembe averaged 6 points and 7 rebounds a game. For the he got paid, oh nothin, $17,894,735. For those of you on your knees begging me not to do the math on that, sorry. It's a strange world we live in. What higher a degree of strangeness is there than a basketball player getting paid almost 45 times as much as the president for 6 points a game?

Established: One of the most overall difficult jobs in the USA gets paid pocket change in comparison to mediocre athletes. So what is one of the easiest jobs that gets the most pay? Without doing a whole lot of research, here's my #1:
Job Description: Be on TV. Say "yes" or "no." Give prewritten insults to 20 year old ditzes. The pay? Somewhere around $36,000,000 a year. It's an enigma that no mathematician, logician, or lunatic could possibly understand. Simon Cowell gets paid for 22.5 presidential terms (90 years) each year by American Idol. If anyone can truly figure out why, they're the one person that deserves higher pay than the president.

The Eagles (for lack of a better title)

2009-03-12T17:45:00.000-07:00

If there would be one way to accurately describe, for the most part, football fans, it would be that they think they are better than the pros. Us fans tend to look at plays and think, “Hey, I did that in the back yard, why couldn’t he?” This leads to bashing the quarterback when a sneaky defender jumps a pass for an interception, holding our heads in our hands when a receiver drops a pass that was fired at his feet, and especially, ripping our team’s front office for their decisions regarding who to keep, who to get rid of, and who to get. For this reason, I always try to be slow to disagree with personnel moves made by professional GM’s and coaches. However, the Eagles front office has finally made enough inexplicable moves that I can no longer stifle my dissent.
So what did they do this year that at last put me over the top? Simple. Nothing. Nothing is what they did as long time Eagle Brian Dawkins left for the Denver Broncos. Now there are several reasons for not resigning a player:
-Salary Cap: Probably the single reason why the NFL is currently the best sport going is the salary cap which limits how much a team can spend on players each season. Sometimes, no matter how much they want to keep him, a team simply doesn’t have enough room under the cap to resign him. Going into this off season, the Eagles were $48 million under the salary cap. Okay, that must not be it.
-The Player: Sometimes, plain and simple, the player wants nothing to do with his current team and is going to leave unless they empty the bank for his services. Brian Dawkins said many times that he wanted to stay in Philadelphia. Now a lot of players will say that, but when a bigger offer comes from somewhere else, they’re gone. From every piece of information I’ve heard or read, Dawkins’s “I want to stay” statement was the most legitimate of it’s kind. All it would have taken was a reasonable contract offer from the Eagles and #20 would still be in midnight green (Here I’ll clarify that while we all like to complain about athletes wanting more money, the truth is that they are the driving force in a mega million dollar industry, so they are very deserving of the profits). I recently heard that the Eagles are one of four NFL teams worth over 1 billion dollars. Brian Dawkins was the face of the team’s defense. If not the entire team. Do the math I think we can all agree that he is worth more than the 2 year, 4 million dollar contract the Eagles threw at his feet.
-Age: Sometimes a team will decide that as a player gets older and loses some ability, and just not worth the money anymore. Now, we fans have a knack for being overly nostalgic about our long term players. We hate to see them leave. But the Eagles strategy of letting older guys go to let their young prospects onto the field has worked out pretty well so far (think of when they let star cornerbacks Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent go and replaced them with Lito Shepherd and Sheldon Brown. Taylor and Vincent fell into oblivion and I barely heard their names again, while Shepherd and Brown rose to Pro Bowl or near Pro Bowl status. Or Hugh Douglass the ferocious pass rusher who left for the Jaguars and suddenly lost his ability. The list goes on). But Brian Dawkins is not just a player. He’s a team leader. He shows up biggest when the lights are brightest. He plays every down of every game like it’s the last play of the Super Bowl. He makes big plays when they count. Need I say more? If I was managing the team on Madden, which doesn’t take experience, leadership, or intensity into account, I’d say he’s an old player who has lost a step in pass coverage and should go. But Dawkins is so much more. Even if he isn’t on the field for every play, he’ll earn every dollar he gets paid by keeping the team fired up and ready to go.

The way I see it, if none of the above three criteria are reason for letting a player go, then you resign him. It seems that the Eagles management thought the Age factor was a problem, but that was a miscalculation if you ask me (due to leadership, etc.). A criteria that I didn’t mention above is when another team comes out and way overpays a guy. That argument could be made given the Broncos 5 year contract to a 35 year old player…but if the Eagles hadn’t just sat around and done nothing, Dawkins never would have been in free agency.

Okay, so they made a bad decision with Brian Dawkins…in what other ways have the Eagles blundered?
Primarily, in the often stated belief that the wide receiver position is over rated. There’s some truth in the statement. You can run an effective offense with a group of average receivers; a star wide out isn’t a necessity. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try to get one. The Eagles have five receivers that I think could be in the top three for a lot of teams, but none that would be the #1 go to guy on most teams. A squad like this will do fine over the course of the regular season. They aren’t going to keep the team out of the post season. But when the playoffs come around and defenses start playing better, a big time, playmaking receiver is an undeniable asset. Just think of what Larry Fitzgerald did for the Cardinals in their Super Bowl run. When he wasn’t beating two or three defenders, he was opening up the field for the other guys. Meanwhile, the Eagles receivers got off to a very sluggish start in the NFC championship game that caused the offense to sputter early, putting them in a huge first half hole (I believe McNabb is equally to blame, but he is a whole topic in himself, so I’m intentionally leaving McNabb conversation out of this).
Do you think it is a coincidence that the year Terrell Owens was with the Eagles (and on good terms) was the only year out of their recent NFC championship seasons that they could be defined as “Dominating” rather than “Good?” The Eagles defense that year wasn’t much better if at all. Their running game wasn’t as good as it is now. I rest my case.
It seems that the Eagles strategy has been to try to field a team that is a safe bet to make the playoffs, and then hope they catch fire and make a run to the Lombardi Trophy. Not a terrible plan, but after five out of eight years making the NFC championship game with no Super Bowl wins, it is time to re-evaluate things. After all, they’ve come into the playoffs in just about every way imaginable; from the dominating 13-1 team that didn’t play the last two games of the season, to the 6-seed team that had to make a highly improbably late season run just to get into the playoffs; and no way they have done it has worked. The only year they even made it to the Super Bowl was when they went out and took chances with a controversial wide receiver (T.O.) and a freakish pass rusher with injury problems (Javon Kearse). The long term wisdom of those moves can be questioned with our prescription hind-sight glasses, but they were a big part of why the team was as great as it was that year and almost got that championship. And trust me. Any Eagles fan you talk to just wants one. Yes we’d cheer just as strongly for another should the Eagles win a Super Bowl, but getting that one championship is all that really matters. Yeah, a dynasty would be pretty cool, but those are for pretty boy quarterbacks, obnoxious coaches, and lead to one thing: Arrogant, pampered fan bases.
So overall, it’s not really that the Eagles decision makers have done a horrible job…it’s that they do a good job. Yes, good. Good enough to send the team to the playoffs 80% of the time. Good enough to keep everyone’s hopes up only to smash them year in and year out. Most of all, good enough to keep their jobs, and good enough that no one will call loudly enough for change (Yikes! I just sounded like President Obama! Let me rephrase that). Good enough that no one looks at them when the team comes up short again…and again. Good enough that there’s always some validity in the old Eagles adage, “There’s always next year.”