Slow and steady improvment from 8-8 to 9-7 to 10-6 leaves me at 27-21 on the year. Hoping it's the loss numbers that drop, not the wins as we head into bye weeks.
NFC
SF vs ATL- San Fransisco, the underwhelming team of the year have played the Saints tight, and lost badly to two teams that weren’t supposed to be good…but now stand at 2-1 and 3-0. I’m not going to give up on them, they could show some fire, but they’re also not a team to bet on with their foot shooting tendencies, and especially not against the Falcons. Yes, they were aided by a missed 29 yarder in OT, but they still showed the ability to play with the Saints. Of course, so did San Fransisco. Okay, so the jury is still out on the Falcons, but I’m sold on them at least this week.
SEA vs STL- Any team more enigmatic over three weeks than the Seahawks? Total underdogs in week 1, they blow out the 49ers. Following that performance, you think they’d handle the Broncos, only to lose. Once we thought they were the Seahawks again, they manage a win over the Chargers, albeit on two kickoff returns. The Rams have shown some potential, although shown by losing two close games to bad teams and edging out the Redskins and their disappointing defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take another progressive step and top the Hawks, but in a game of two unpredictable teams, I’ll go with my gut and take the Seahawks.
DET vs GB- Detroit helped the previously inept Vikings to their first win, bringing into doubt how much they have progressed as a team, at least without Matthew Stafford. On the other hand, no worries about the Packers, despite the Bears surprising me again. Packers win.
CAR vs NO- Jimmy Clausen didn’t help the Panthers against the Bengals. Don’t expect him to save them from the Saints either. New Orleans wins.
WSH vs PHI- In the much anticipated Philadelphia return for McNabb, the bigger factor could be the Eagles new QB. I mentioned earlier that my memories of Eagles/Redskins games is largely the Skin’s defense bailing out their inept offense time and time again, and McNabb being completely unable to move the ball. With Vick, a much more dynamic playmaker, and a much less daunting version of the Redskins defense (as much as I hate to bail on them so quickly after my gushing praise post week 1) the Eagles offense should do much better than before. With McNabb at the helm, the Skins offense should also do better. So basically, I have to throw out my plethora of Philly/Washington experience when making the call on this one. I want to write off the Redskins due to them losing to the Rams, but they also took the Texans to OT and were great against the Cowboys. Okay, decision time. It’s a close game, but ultimately……..the Redskins defense isn’t top notch enough to stop Vick and co. who have been converting opportunities and finding the end zone (no FG attempts the last two weeks) Eagles win.
CHI vs NYG- This one’s got me stuck in a circle of logic. It seems obvious enough that the surprise Bears who keep establishing themselves as legit should be able to handle the struggling Giants. But the surprise teams don’t keep winning forever. 2009 Broncos anyone? With a team like the Bears, it doesn’t seem to be a matter of finding a team good enough to beat them, it’s a matter of the breaks starting to roll back on top of them. Something about the iffy Calvin Johnson drop, the slow starting Cowboys offense, and the penalty aided game winning drive gives me qualms about seeing the Bears as a 3-0 powerhouse. Giants pull the upset.
AFC
CIN vs CLE- The people who expected the Bengals to step up and play extremely well this year are still waiting. Sure they pulled out a tough win against the Ravens, but the high flying passing offense hasn’t shown up yet. As for the Browns, they’re going to win a few games eventually, and they’ve been competitive, especially with the emergence of Peyton Hillis as a possible stud, following the preseason expectation of Harrison and Hardesty to do big things on the ground. I like the potential I’ve seen from Cleveland, but have yet to see anything materialize. In this meeting, I take the Bengals. The next?
NYJ vs BUF- Sanchez seems to have completely shaken off that dreadful start, and the Jets are looking formidable. Meanwhile, the Bills have held the lead for a total of 8 minutes and 13 seconds in all three games combined. Jets win.
DEN vs TEN- I’m not impressed with the Broncos yet, and I’ll give the Titans a free pass against the Steelers defense. Titians win.
BAL vs PIT- Classic example of a game that comes one week to early. With the way the Steelers defense is playing, it doesn’t take a whole lot of support from the offense to feel good about them, but against the Ravens, a team that can play both defense and offense with the best of anyone (if they decide to show up), Charlie Batch doesn’t cut it. Play this game a week later with Ben Roethlisberger, and I take the Steelers, but as is, Ravens win.
IND vs JAC- The Jaguars offense has sputtered. If you thought their defense looked bad against the Chargers and Eagles, it’s about to get worse with the Colts coming to town. Colts tally another win.
HOU vs OAK- I’m realizing that I might have jumped a little too much when the Texans beat the Colts, as their defense got shredded by…the Redskins? And their offense looked bad last week. Nevertheless, I still think they’re a good team not to be written off against another contender, and we shouldn’t have to worry much about the Raiders.
NE vs MIA- I’ve been impressed with the Dolphins so far, their only loss coming against the Jets. I’ve been much less impressed with the Patriots, especially their defense (30 points against the Bills?). I’m crossing my fingers, holding my breath and grimacing, cause betting against the Patriots offense is playing with explosives, but if the Dolphins defense can hold up, they’ll be able to put up some points. Dolphins win.
INT
ARI vs SD- Despite a 1-2 start, I’m very impressed with San Diego and their ability to move the ball offensively and score. It took a missed 29 yard FG for the Cardinals to beat the Raiders, so I doubt they’ll be able to do much against the Chargers. San Diego improves to 2-2.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Week 3 NFL picks
Last week I “improved” to 9-7 bringing my overall record to 17-15. Let’s hope for better this week:
NFC
DET vs MIN- Jahvid Best powered the Lions offense to 32 points last week, yet with Shaun Hill at quarterback, they flopped their post onside kick opportunity to tie or win the game. Hill gets the start again, and don’t expect such an amazing performance from Best against the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Minnesota is at the point of desperation. 0-2 isn’t insurmountable, but its walking a tight line. They need to get things going sooner rather than later. Another loss will not only put them in a bad spot but put into question the team’s overall ability. Vikings right the ship and win the battle of the winless.
ATL vs NO- The Saints sure are good at finding ways to win, last time managing to force a deflected kick through the uprights. Reggie Bush is probably the most expendable super star in the league, so the Saints offense will continue to do its thing, however, “that thing” hasn’t put up many points so far this year. Atlanta showed some serious fire power against the Cardinals and giving them status as a contender. If the Falcons defense can contain the Saints, the Falcons are able to outshoot them for the win.
WSH vs STL- The Rams lost to the Raiders. Well, I suppose someone had to win that game. Meanwhile, the Redskins pulled a flip flop on my team analysis last week, with an impressive offensive showing, and a defensive performance that gave up 497 yards of passing. Nevertheless, the Rams offense is a few notches below that of the Texans. Redskins win.
CHI vs GB- NFC north rivalry and battle of early unbeatens. The Bears stunned a lot of people last week by beating the Cowboys, but if they beat the Packers, people won’t be stunned. Just a little surprised. I still expect the Packers to win. Excellent team all around and a much safer pick than Jay Cutler.
AFC
BUF vs NE- It seems the questions about the Patriots defense are legit after being beaten soundly by Mark Sanchez and the Jets that in week 1 had the offensive rhythm of hiccupping clarinetist. Good thing for them, they’re going up against the team with the worst point differential in the NFL, so not being in championship for isn’t a big deal. Patriots win.
CLE vs BAL- The Ravens defense that kept the Jets offense to that horrid start also kept the Bengals offense out of the end zone. The Browns probably become the first team to score a touchdown against the Ravens with an explosive play from Mohamed Massaquoi or Josh Cribbs, but the Ravens are too much for Cleveland to handle and Baltimore wins.
IND vs DEN- The Colts defense got back on its feet against the Giants and the Colts looked as dominant as ever. Simply a superior team to the Broncos, Colts win.
NYJ vs MIA- So far we’ve seen two versions of the Jets offense, one against a superb defense, the other against a poor one. The question is, which will show up against a good Miami one. The Dolphins have pulled out two “did just enough” wins and are showing the fight to win close games. Still not sure what to expect from the Jets, I’ll take Miami.
INT
SF vs KC- The Chiefs rode week 1 momentum to a narrow victory over Cleveland and a surprising 2-0 record. The 49ers picked up their game and took the defending champions down to the wire (as I expected, I might say) showing they have some potential. In the end, the Chiefs inefficient passing game prevents 3-0. 49ers pick up first win of the season.
TEN vs NYG- Chris Johnson gets back to work after facing the Steelers defense, and the Giants try to recover from being plain and simply outmatched by Indianapolis. Titans win.
PIT vs TB- The Steelers defense has won their team two games and now face the 2-0 team that I’m having the most trouble taking seriously. Tampa Bay shows its true colors against its first true test. Steelers move to 3-0.
CIN vs CAR- The Bengals managed a rare touchdownless victory last week, showing their defense’s resiliency. And next up is a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Bengals win.
DAL vs HOU- Could the Cowboys go 0-3? I think so. They’ve struggled through their two losses while the Texans have looked phenomenal, taking out the Colts with flair and shredding the Redskins defense that I was unbelievably high on last week. Struggling Cowboys, flame hot Texans. Something’s gotta give for the Cowboys to win. No, both of those things would have to give. Texans win.
PHI vs JAC- So Vick is the starter. A move that was more unexpected than the Saints Superbowl onside kick gives a whole new look to the Eagles offense. One that is dynamic and explosive rather than one that would be in the process of growing into an effective unit. While it remains to be seen how much the Vick we've seen the last two weeks is the real one, he’ll be fine against the Jaguars at least. Maurice Jones-Drew could have a big pound it out day against the Eagles defense, but otherwise, the Eagles contain the Jaguar offense. Eagles win.
OAK vs ARI- The Cardinals scored on an 85 yard touchdown run. Other than that, nothing. The week before, they struggled against the Rams, winning a close one. They’d have to make progress for me to simply be unimpressed. The Raiders got trounced in week 1, then won a close game against the Rams. The deciding difference here is that the term “struggled against the Rams” was not used. In this case, being worse than expected is on the same level as the Raiders “better than expected.” I’ll take the team with a tad more upside. Cardinals win.
SD vs SEA- San Diego went back to familiar form, defeating the Jaguars soundly, while the Seahawks went back to expected form, losing to the Broncos. Chargers continue to look good and win.
NFC
DET vs MIN- Jahvid Best powered the Lions offense to 32 points last week, yet with Shaun Hill at quarterback, they flopped their post onside kick opportunity to tie or win the game. Hill gets the start again, and don’t expect such an amazing performance from Best against the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Minnesota is at the point of desperation. 0-2 isn’t insurmountable, but its walking a tight line. They need to get things going sooner rather than later. Another loss will not only put them in a bad spot but put into question the team’s overall ability. Vikings right the ship and win the battle of the winless.
ATL vs NO- The Saints sure are good at finding ways to win, last time managing to force a deflected kick through the uprights. Reggie Bush is probably the most expendable super star in the league, so the Saints offense will continue to do its thing, however, “that thing” hasn’t put up many points so far this year. Atlanta showed some serious fire power against the Cardinals and giving them status as a contender. If the Falcons defense can contain the Saints, the Falcons are able to outshoot them for the win.
WSH vs STL- The Rams lost to the Raiders. Well, I suppose someone had to win that game. Meanwhile, the Redskins pulled a flip flop on my team analysis last week, with an impressive offensive showing, and a defensive performance that gave up 497 yards of passing. Nevertheless, the Rams offense is a few notches below that of the Texans. Redskins win.
CHI vs GB- NFC north rivalry and battle of early unbeatens. The Bears stunned a lot of people last week by beating the Cowboys, but if they beat the Packers, people won’t be stunned. Just a little surprised. I still expect the Packers to win. Excellent team all around and a much safer pick than Jay Cutler.
AFC
BUF vs NE- It seems the questions about the Patriots defense are legit after being beaten soundly by Mark Sanchez and the Jets that in week 1 had the offensive rhythm of hiccupping clarinetist. Good thing for them, they’re going up against the team with the worst point differential in the NFL, so not being in championship for isn’t a big deal. Patriots win.
CLE vs BAL- The Ravens defense that kept the Jets offense to that horrid start also kept the Bengals offense out of the end zone. The Browns probably become the first team to score a touchdown against the Ravens with an explosive play from Mohamed Massaquoi or Josh Cribbs, but the Ravens are too much for Cleveland to handle and Baltimore wins.
IND vs DEN- The Colts defense got back on its feet against the Giants and the Colts looked as dominant as ever. Simply a superior team to the Broncos, Colts win.
NYJ vs MIA- So far we’ve seen two versions of the Jets offense, one against a superb defense, the other against a poor one. The question is, which will show up against a good Miami one. The Dolphins have pulled out two “did just enough” wins and are showing the fight to win close games. Still not sure what to expect from the Jets, I’ll take Miami.
INT
SF vs KC- The Chiefs rode week 1 momentum to a narrow victory over Cleveland and a surprising 2-0 record. The 49ers picked up their game and took the defending champions down to the wire (as I expected, I might say) showing they have some potential. In the end, the Chiefs inefficient passing game prevents 3-0. 49ers pick up first win of the season.
TEN vs NYG- Chris Johnson gets back to work after facing the Steelers defense, and the Giants try to recover from being plain and simply outmatched by Indianapolis. Titans win.
PIT vs TB- The Steelers defense has won their team two games and now face the 2-0 team that I’m having the most trouble taking seriously. Tampa Bay shows its true colors against its first true test. Steelers move to 3-0.
CIN vs CAR- The Bengals managed a rare touchdownless victory last week, showing their defense’s resiliency. And next up is a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Bengals win.
DAL vs HOU- Could the Cowboys go 0-3? I think so. They’ve struggled through their two losses while the Texans have looked phenomenal, taking out the Colts with flair and shredding the Redskins defense that I was unbelievably high on last week. Struggling Cowboys, flame hot Texans. Something’s gotta give for the Cowboys to win. No, both of those things would have to give. Texans win.
PHI vs JAC- So Vick is the starter. A move that was more unexpected than the Saints Superbowl onside kick gives a whole new look to the Eagles offense. One that is dynamic and explosive rather than one that would be in the process of growing into an effective unit. While it remains to be seen how much the Vick we've seen the last two weeks is the real one, he’ll be fine against the Jaguars at least. Maurice Jones-Drew could have a big pound it out day against the Eagles defense, but otherwise, the Eagles contain the Jaguar offense. Eagles win.
OAK vs ARI- The Cardinals scored on an 85 yard touchdown run. Other than that, nothing. The week before, they struggled against the Rams, winning a close one. They’d have to make progress for me to simply be unimpressed. The Raiders got trounced in week 1, then won a close game against the Rams. The deciding difference here is that the term “struggled against the Rams” was not used. In this case, being worse than expected is on the same level as the Raiders “better than expected.” I’ll take the team with a tad more upside. Cardinals win.
SD vs SEA- San Diego went back to familiar form, defeating the Jaguars soundly, while the Seahawks went back to expected form, losing to the Broncos. Chargers continue to look good and win.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
NFL week 2 picks
NFL picks week 2
So these are going up a bit early cause I’m not sure when I’ll be able to get them up over the weekend and I’d prefer them to be early rather than late.
Before I get to the picks, a few things we learned from week 1:
I knew this already, but it was very much highlighted. My NFC picks (5-2)are much better than my AFC picks(2-5). Whether I just know the NFC better or whether the AFC just has a few more unpredictable teams, that’s how it is. My 8-8 start in week 1 was disappointing, but not entirely unexpected. Week 1 is always tricky and a few games like San Fransisco vs Seattle where one team is talked way up and the other way down cause everyone problems. I’m settling in to my laughing chair as I saw a surprising number of people pick the Raiders to be good or even make the playoffs. Jason Campbell isn’t going to change much moving from one bad organization to another. Finally, I’ve come to the realization that when God created our amazing bodies, he clearly didn’t have football in mind. I’m finding it very frustrating to be a fan of a sport where it’s a miracle not to have 2 or 3 key players lost for the year throughout the season, and having 2 go down week 1 isn’t entirely outrageous.
Now to the picks:
NFC
CHI vs DAL- I’m not ready to tag Jay Cutler as a bum yet, but you have to expect him to turn the ball over to the Dallas defense a couple times. Even if the Cowboys manage to shoot themselves in the foot as much as they did against the Skins, those turnovers will be the difference. Cowboys win.
PHI vs DET- I was a bit worried about the Stafford-Johnson combo, but with Stafford hurt and not much time for the two to get in sync even if Stafford plays, I’m far less threatened. Despite some serious lapses, the Eagles defense showed the ability to stop even the Packers offense when it counted. Should it come down to the end, they’ll be able to do the same. Eagles win.
ARI vs ATL- The Cardinals struggled with the Rams. The Falcons struggled with the Steelers defense. The latter is much more acceptable. Falcons win.
TB vs CAR- Not impressed with either team, but I’ve got to pick someone. Now I’m going to do exactly what I said not do last week. Rely on the Panthers good run at the end of last season as the only really positive thing going for either side. No, beating the Browns doesn’t quite count as positive, not yet. Panthers win.
NO vs SF- We know the Saints will be good. As for San Fransisco, they’re either not nearly as good as we thought they’d be, or (and I suspect the following) they’ll put up a good fight and make this a game. Either way, though, the Saints prevail.
AFC
BAL vs CIN- The Ravens offense was held to 10 points by the Jets defense. The Bengals defense isn’t the Jets defense, but expect them to figure things out a lot more than they did in week 1. This game comes down to the Ravens ability to stop the Bengals offense and I think they’re up to that challenge. Ravens win.
KC vs CLE- I never like to jump on the bandwagon of a lower echelon team that managed a high caliber upset, but fortunately, favoring someone over Cleveland doesn’t quite equate to jumping on a bandwagon. Nevertheless, expect a low scoring game that could turn out to be a kick/punt returning battle that could go either way. I’ll give the Chiefs the edge, though. Kansas City is 2-0?
PIT vs TEN- This game is in Chris Johnson’s hands, but comes down to Dennis Dixon/the absence of Roethlisberger. Last week, Dixon had a good outing…and still only scored 9 points (the OT touchdown was a one play 50 yard run). If Chris Johnson can do his thing, Titans roll.
NE vs NYJ- Another thing I learned from week 1 is that the Patriots offense deserves respect, and the Jets offense does not. The Patriots offense should bail out a weak defense on multiple occasions throughout the season. Mark Sanchez seems to have taken a good step back from his rookie season, and unless he reinvents the wheel of throwing the ball downfield and making plays, the Jets defense will be required to bail out their offense multiple times this year. That task just may be too much to ask against Tom Brady and Co. Patriots win.
JAC vs SD- In my opinion, San Diego’s struggles had as much to do with the rain and slop as it did with the excellent performance by Kansas City. Rain affected passes, slipping receivers (including on the final 4th down play in which the receiver may have otherwise caught the pass and tied the game), and crowd noise hobbled an offense that looked quite able to move the ball even so. Chargers correct mistakes, look great, and win.
INT
BUF vs GB- The Packers offense looked shaky at times and still put up 27 points against the Philly defense. No worries here about an offensive drop off from last year. And Buffalo…I don’t feel the need defend picking against them. It’s possible this will be the last time I’ll even talk about them in this column. Packers win handily.
MIA vs MIN- Concerns about Minnesota: the Favre-Harvin connection and the offense gelling in general. Concerns about Miami: They only beat Buffalo 15-10…um, okay, THIS might be the last time I talk about Buffalo. The positives: An extended week of practice should help the Vikings offense, so they should do better, and especially in week 1, a win is a win, no matter how ugly. They did what they needed to do to get the win, so they deserve credit. In the end, I’ll take Miami to pull the upset and have Favre wondering if it was a good idea to come back out of retirement.
STL vs OAK- It’s hard to know whether to attribute the Rams contention with Arizona to an improved St Louis team, or to the Warnerless Cardinals, but their performance was certainly better than that of the Raiders. Bradford gets his first NFL win.
SEA vs DEN- What do you do when a lowly team blows away a highly hyped team in week 1? First, don’t over react. The Seahawks and Matt Hasselbeck seem to have an offense worthy of recognition again. It remains to be seen if Denver will show any flashes of their 6-0 start last year or whether they will remain a mediocre team with limited potential. The Seahawks probably aren’t contenders yet, but Pete Carroll seems to have the team fired up to prove some people wrong this year, and they’ll be able to ride the momentum from last week to victory over Denver.
HOU vs WAS- I’ve seen that Washington/Dallas game several times before. The Skins offense doing almost nothing, and their defense bailing them out time and time again against all odds. Before, however, the offense they were shutting down was McNabb and the Eagles. So if the rest of fans haven’t figured out how good the Redskins defense is, take it from me. They’re disgusting. Despite this fact, however, their offense held them back to a 4-12 record last year, and it didn’t seem to get any better with McNabb present, though it was against the Dallas defense so it’s too early to judge. A tougher test for the Skins defense awaits in the Texans offense which can now apparently run the ball as good as they can throw it, which has to be frightening to anyone with Houston on their schedule. Until Washington’s offense shows me something, I can’t rely on their defense to carry them to wins against good teams. Texans win again.
NYG vs IND- Says NBC, “A game so intriguing it only happens once every four years!” Sorry, NBC. The game you’re talking about is the World Cup Final, not the battle of the Mannings. Now that I got that off my chest, the game. Last week the Colts defense was annihilated by Houston and they were still only an untimely turnover and a play or two away from being right there if not winning. This week the defense won’t have to be worried about Andre Johnson, so they’ll be able to play against the run a lot more. If I were the colts, I’d make the Giants prove that three touchdowns from Eli Manning to Hackeem Nicks is more than a one time show before I worried about it too much. Peyton beats Eli for the second time.
So these are going up a bit early cause I’m not sure when I’ll be able to get them up over the weekend and I’d prefer them to be early rather than late.
Before I get to the picks, a few things we learned from week 1:
I knew this already, but it was very much highlighted. My NFC picks (5-2)are much better than my AFC picks(2-5). Whether I just know the NFC better or whether the AFC just has a few more unpredictable teams, that’s how it is. My 8-8 start in week 1 was disappointing, but not entirely unexpected. Week 1 is always tricky and a few games like San Fransisco vs Seattle where one team is talked way up and the other way down cause everyone problems. I’m settling in to my laughing chair as I saw a surprising number of people pick the Raiders to be good or even make the playoffs. Jason Campbell isn’t going to change much moving from one bad organization to another. Finally, I’ve come to the realization that when God created our amazing bodies, he clearly didn’t have football in mind. I’m finding it very frustrating to be a fan of a sport where it’s a miracle not to have 2 or 3 key players lost for the year throughout the season, and having 2 go down week 1 isn’t entirely outrageous.
Now to the picks:
NFC
CHI vs DAL- I’m not ready to tag Jay Cutler as a bum yet, but you have to expect him to turn the ball over to the Dallas defense a couple times. Even if the Cowboys manage to shoot themselves in the foot as much as they did against the Skins, those turnovers will be the difference. Cowboys win.
PHI vs DET- I was a bit worried about the Stafford-Johnson combo, but with Stafford hurt and not much time for the two to get in sync even if Stafford plays, I’m far less threatened. Despite some serious lapses, the Eagles defense showed the ability to stop even the Packers offense when it counted. Should it come down to the end, they’ll be able to do the same. Eagles win.
ARI vs ATL- The Cardinals struggled with the Rams. The Falcons struggled with the Steelers defense. The latter is much more acceptable. Falcons win.
TB vs CAR- Not impressed with either team, but I’ve got to pick someone. Now I’m going to do exactly what I said not do last week. Rely on the Panthers good run at the end of last season as the only really positive thing going for either side. No, beating the Browns doesn’t quite count as positive, not yet. Panthers win.
NO vs SF- We know the Saints will be good. As for San Fransisco, they’re either not nearly as good as we thought they’d be, or (and I suspect the following) they’ll put up a good fight and make this a game. Either way, though, the Saints prevail.
AFC
BAL vs CIN- The Ravens offense was held to 10 points by the Jets defense. The Bengals defense isn’t the Jets defense, but expect them to figure things out a lot more than they did in week 1. This game comes down to the Ravens ability to stop the Bengals offense and I think they’re up to that challenge. Ravens win.
KC vs CLE- I never like to jump on the bandwagon of a lower echelon team that managed a high caliber upset, but fortunately, favoring someone over Cleveland doesn’t quite equate to jumping on a bandwagon. Nevertheless, expect a low scoring game that could turn out to be a kick/punt returning battle that could go either way. I’ll give the Chiefs the edge, though. Kansas City is 2-0?
PIT vs TEN- This game is in Chris Johnson’s hands, but comes down to Dennis Dixon/the absence of Roethlisberger. Last week, Dixon had a good outing…and still only scored 9 points (the OT touchdown was a one play 50 yard run). If Chris Johnson can do his thing, Titans roll.
NE vs NYJ- Another thing I learned from week 1 is that the Patriots offense deserves respect, and the Jets offense does not. The Patriots offense should bail out a weak defense on multiple occasions throughout the season. Mark Sanchez seems to have taken a good step back from his rookie season, and unless he reinvents the wheel of throwing the ball downfield and making plays, the Jets defense will be required to bail out their offense multiple times this year. That task just may be too much to ask against Tom Brady and Co. Patriots win.
JAC vs SD- In my opinion, San Diego’s struggles had as much to do with the rain and slop as it did with the excellent performance by Kansas City. Rain affected passes, slipping receivers (including on the final 4th down play in which the receiver may have otherwise caught the pass and tied the game), and crowd noise hobbled an offense that looked quite able to move the ball even so. Chargers correct mistakes, look great, and win.
INT
BUF vs GB- The Packers offense looked shaky at times and still put up 27 points against the Philly defense. No worries here about an offensive drop off from last year. And Buffalo…I don’t feel the need defend picking against them. It’s possible this will be the last time I’ll even talk about them in this column. Packers win handily.
MIA vs MIN- Concerns about Minnesota: the Favre-Harvin connection and the offense gelling in general. Concerns about Miami: They only beat Buffalo 15-10…um, okay, THIS might be the last time I talk about Buffalo. The positives: An extended week of practice should help the Vikings offense, so they should do better, and especially in week 1, a win is a win, no matter how ugly. They did what they needed to do to get the win, so they deserve credit. In the end, I’ll take Miami to pull the upset and have Favre wondering if it was a good idea to come back out of retirement.
STL vs OAK- It’s hard to know whether to attribute the Rams contention with Arizona to an improved St Louis team, or to the Warnerless Cardinals, but their performance was certainly better than that of the Raiders. Bradford gets his first NFL win.
SEA vs DEN- What do you do when a lowly team blows away a highly hyped team in week 1? First, don’t over react. The Seahawks and Matt Hasselbeck seem to have an offense worthy of recognition again. It remains to be seen if Denver will show any flashes of their 6-0 start last year or whether they will remain a mediocre team with limited potential. The Seahawks probably aren’t contenders yet, but Pete Carroll seems to have the team fired up to prove some people wrong this year, and they’ll be able to ride the momentum from last week to victory over Denver.
HOU vs WAS- I’ve seen that Washington/Dallas game several times before. The Skins offense doing almost nothing, and their defense bailing them out time and time again against all odds. Before, however, the offense they were shutting down was McNabb and the Eagles. So if the rest of fans haven’t figured out how good the Redskins defense is, take it from me. They’re disgusting. Despite this fact, however, their offense held them back to a 4-12 record last year, and it didn’t seem to get any better with McNabb present, though it was against the Dallas defense so it’s too early to judge. A tougher test for the Skins defense awaits in the Texans offense which can now apparently run the ball as good as they can throw it, which has to be frightening to anyone with Houston on their schedule. Until Washington’s offense shows me something, I can’t rely on their defense to carry them to wins against good teams. Texans win again.
NYG vs IND- Says NBC, “A game so intriguing it only happens once every four years!” Sorry, NBC. The game you’re talking about is the World Cup Final, not the battle of the Mannings. Now that I got that off my chest, the game. Last week the Colts defense was annihilated by Houston and they were still only an untimely turnover and a play or two away from being right there if not winning. This week the defense won’t have to be worried about Andre Johnson, so they’ll be able to play against the run a lot more. If I were the colts, I’d make the Giants prove that three touchdowns from Eli Manning to Hackeem Nicks is more than a one time show before I worried about it too much. Peyton beats Eli for the second time.
Friday, September 10, 2010
NFL week 1 picks
So I don't know if anybody's still reading this. I'm going to try something this NFL season-give my picks for the winners of NFL games with a brief explanation or commentary. Hopefully it will be somewhat amusing/interesting.
WEEK 1
NFC
MIN vs NO-This is an after the fact post, but I did have New Orleans picked before hand for the reason that I didn't think Brett Favre would have had time to gel with the offense due to a late entry to training camp. I was dead on as Favre was especially out of sink with Percy Harvin.
DET vs CHI-I'm not about to put much faith in the Jay Cutler lead Bears, and the Lions are a team that is improving (well, at least we hope a few good draft picks and moves can improve from 2 wins over the last 2 seasons), however, the Lions aren't there yet. I'll take the Bears.
CAR vs NYG-I want to go with Carolina, but they're the prototypical team that was bad but then looked good down the stretch last season. I've found that both with players and teams, looking good down the stretch of a hopeless season usually doesn't translate into success next year. The Giant's season was opposite of Carolina's, but I'll take their more proven core of players to win.
GB vs PHI-Have to take Green Bay. Their offense is better than the Philly D, and barring an explosive performance by Kevin Kolb, the Eagles won't be able to keep up with the heralded NFC favorites. Look for the Eagles to be a lot better late in the season.
ARI vs STL-Derek Anderson fooled us into thinking he was good for one season. He'll be able to do it for a few weeks with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, especially against St. Louis. Cards win.
SF vs SEA-When a fairly big name player like TJ Houshmanzada leaves the team he played for his whole career for a new team in free agency, and then gets cut after an unproductive, unmotivated first season, that's probably not a franchise that's going anywhere. The 49ers, the expected surprise team, have a lot more upside. I'll put my gold on San Fransisco.
DAL vs WSH-If you thought the physicality of the Dallas defense made McNabb look bad at the end of last year, wait 'till you see him with only the Washington wide receivers to throw to. I'll take the Cowboys with little worries.
AFC
DEN vs JAC-I've never thought that Kyle Orton was all that bad of a QB. He'll get the job done against the Jaguars, who I have absolutely no idea what to expect from this year (other than a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. Fantasy team, baby!!!). Broncos.
OAK vs TEN-The last time I picked the Raiders, the lost by 40 or so points to a bad team (I think the Bills). I'd much prefer to take the Titans who might be that pesky team that the really good teams just can't seem to put away with Chris Johnson and Vince Young QB scrambles to try to stop. Easy pick, Titans.
CIN vs NE-Chances are, I'm too high on the Bengals and too low on the Patriots, but it'll take learning the hard way for me to figure that out. Bengals.
MIA vs BUF-Miami. 'nough said.
IND vs HOU-Houston has the nostalgic appeal. The team that's been getting good but hasn't been able to crack the playoffs finally looking ready to be great with a big time week 1 division game to get it's magical season started. But nostalgia isn't a good sports law, especially when we don't even know how good they are yet. I'll take the team that should have been 16-0 last year.
BAL vs NYJ-The Ravens are my preseason Super Bowl pick. The Jets are the team that I think will leave its expectations the most unfulfilled. Yet for some reason, I'm taking the Jets. I'm going to hope this is some sort of uncanny gut feeling, not some sort of nostalgia.
SD vs KC-The Chiefs established themselves as a black hole last year by wiping the previous season's "from a nobody to a household name" player off the face of the earth. Matt Cassell who? I'll take the Chargers.
INT
CLE vs TB-If Tampa Bay does well, they might be an average team. I don't expect much. And they aren't the Cardinals in the playoffs, so Jake Delhomme should do well enough for the win. Browns.
ATL vs PIT-This one's a duzie. Picking Atlanta would be based entirely on them returning to what they were able to do two years ago. Picking Pittsburg would be based entirely on wanting to see a run-first college QB succeed in the NFL. So I'll go a different route. I'll base my pick entirely on Troy Polamalu's $1,000,000 insured hair. The Steelers defense is a heck of a lot better with Troy in there. Steelers.
Stay posted for weekly picks, probably appearing in the friday to saturday range.
WEEK 1
NFC
MIN vs NO-This is an after the fact post, but I did have New Orleans picked before hand for the reason that I didn't think Brett Favre would have had time to gel with the offense due to a late entry to training camp. I was dead on as Favre was especially out of sink with Percy Harvin.
DET vs CHI-I'm not about to put much faith in the Jay Cutler lead Bears, and the Lions are a team that is improving (well, at least we hope a few good draft picks and moves can improve from 2 wins over the last 2 seasons), however, the Lions aren't there yet. I'll take the Bears.
CAR vs NYG-I want to go with Carolina, but they're the prototypical team that was bad but then looked good down the stretch last season. I've found that both with players and teams, looking good down the stretch of a hopeless season usually doesn't translate into success next year. The Giant's season was opposite of Carolina's, but I'll take their more proven core of players to win.
GB vs PHI-Have to take Green Bay. Their offense is better than the Philly D, and barring an explosive performance by Kevin Kolb, the Eagles won't be able to keep up with the heralded NFC favorites. Look for the Eagles to be a lot better late in the season.
ARI vs STL-Derek Anderson fooled us into thinking he was good for one season. He'll be able to do it for a few weeks with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, especially against St. Louis. Cards win.
SF vs SEA-When a fairly big name player like TJ Houshmanzada leaves the team he played for his whole career for a new team in free agency, and then gets cut after an unproductive, unmotivated first season, that's probably not a franchise that's going anywhere. The 49ers, the expected surprise team, have a lot more upside. I'll put my gold on San Fransisco.
DAL vs WSH-If you thought the physicality of the Dallas defense made McNabb look bad at the end of last year, wait 'till you see him with only the Washington wide receivers to throw to. I'll take the Cowboys with little worries.
AFC
DEN vs JAC-I've never thought that Kyle Orton was all that bad of a QB. He'll get the job done against the Jaguars, who I have absolutely no idea what to expect from this year (other than a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. Fantasy team, baby!!!). Broncos.
OAK vs TEN-The last time I picked the Raiders, the lost by 40 or so points to a bad team (I think the Bills). I'd much prefer to take the Titans who might be that pesky team that the really good teams just can't seem to put away with Chris Johnson and Vince Young QB scrambles to try to stop. Easy pick, Titans.
CIN vs NE-Chances are, I'm too high on the Bengals and too low on the Patriots, but it'll take learning the hard way for me to figure that out. Bengals.
MIA vs BUF-Miami. 'nough said.
IND vs HOU-Houston has the nostalgic appeal. The team that's been getting good but hasn't been able to crack the playoffs finally looking ready to be great with a big time week 1 division game to get it's magical season started. But nostalgia isn't a good sports law, especially when we don't even know how good they are yet. I'll take the team that should have been 16-0 last year.
BAL vs NYJ-The Ravens are my preseason Super Bowl pick. The Jets are the team that I think will leave its expectations the most unfulfilled. Yet for some reason, I'm taking the Jets. I'm going to hope this is some sort of uncanny gut feeling, not some sort of nostalgia.
SD vs KC-The Chiefs established themselves as a black hole last year by wiping the previous season's "from a nobody to a household name" player off the face of the earth. Matt Cassell who? I'll take the Chargers.
INT
CLE vs TB-If Tampa Bay does well, they might be an average team. I don't expect much. And they aren't the Cardinals in the playoffs, so Jake Delhomme should do well enough for the win. Browns.
ATL vs PIT-This one's a duzie. Picking Atlanta would be based entirely on them returning to what they were able to do two years ago. Picking Pittsburg would be based entirely on wanting to see a run-first college QB succeed in the NFL. So I'll go a different route. I'll base my pick entirely on Troy Polamalu's $1,000,000 insured hair. The Steelers defense is a heck of a lot better with Troy in there. Steelers.
Stay posted for weekly picks, probably appearing in the friday to saturday range.
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