Anyone want to guess my record from last week? That’s right, 8-6 for the 3rd straight week. Six weeks down and I stand at a consistent, yet highly unimpressive record of 51-39. Only 12 games above .500 and that is even without the aid of a sub .500 week. So while predicting games is not a formula oriented task, I’ve compiled some personal stats to help you sort my more credible picks from the less credible ones. Here is a team by team record of how successful I am at picking their games:

Picking Record:
6-0: Lions
5-0: Bills
5-1: Giants, Saints, Falcons
4-1: Cardinals, Vikings, Steelers
4-2: Eagles, 49ers, Packers, Browns, Raiders, Colts, Titans, Jaguars
3-2: Panthers, Dolphins
3-3: Ravens, Jets, Broncos
2-3: Chiefs, Buccaneers
2-4: Rams, Bears, Texans, Chargers, Redskins
1-4: Cowboys, Bengals, Patriots
0-5: Seahawks

Yes, picking the Bills has been easy. The Seahawks…wow. I have absolutely no idea what’s going on with that team. A bad picking record for the Cowboys would normally indicate me picking them to lose every game that they might possibly loose. In this case, it’s them losing games that I pick them to win. So take these stats to mean as much or as little as you like. Here’s the picks with an indicator of how many games above or below .500 I am at picking the teams involved.

NFC
WSH vs CHI(-4)- I’m actually starting to be impressed with the Redskins. Even though they sit at 3-3, every game apart from the Rams embarrassment has been a one score game. The reason I’m taking a conservative approach to getting excited about the Skins is that their 4-12 record last year was laced with one score losses. Against the Bears, however, one of the teams that I finally jumped on board with last week, I’m feeling pretty confident in their defense against the question mark that is Jay Cutler and in their McNabb improved offense against a Bears defense that is good, but not what it was several years ago. Redskins win.
STL vs TB(-3)- In their last games, the Buccaneers were humbled by the Saints and the Rams were humbled by the Lions. The Rams have showed some offensive fire power, but the loss of Mark Clayton cuts into that dramatically. I’m still not on the Bucs bandwagon, but I’ll take them as reality starts to fall on the Rams. Buccaneers win.
SF vs CAR(+3)- The 49ers finally got a win last week, though it took the Raiders to do so, and now face a team looking for their first. The Panthers have struggled to show much of anything. The 49ers, however, have shown a good bit; they’ve just been an atrocious team. I hope they’ve learned that shooting themselves in the foot hurts, as I said they eventually would at some point, because it’s nerve wracking taking such an inconsistent team twice in a row. Those worries are greatly reduced by the Panther, however. 49ers win.
ARI vs SEA(-2)- Somehow the Cardinals have arrived at a 3-2 r ecord while making us all believe that they’re terrible. Even their defeat of the defending champions I found almost surprisingly unimpressive. Somehow, they just don’t look good. Granted, starting an undrafted rookie quarterback does tend to indicate that your other quarterback options haven’t worked out. As for the Seahawks, the addition of Marshawn Lynch brings some pop to the running game, and is Matt Hasselbeck back? I’m going to go with the Seahawks as they have shown several quality wins. Seattle wins.
MIN vs GB(+5)- The Vikings looked decent in their win over a decent Cowboys team, but it was enough to make me believe that they might be on their way back. Meanwhile, the Packers lost a tight overtime game against the Dolphins. I’m starting to believe that while the Packers offense is a capable offense, it’s not a dominating one that will walk over even stout defenses as I previously believed it would. Nevertheless, the Vikings defense isn’t one that I would call stout, nor is the Packers defense one I would suspect to fall in shambles versus the Vikings. Packers win.
NYG vs DAL(+1)- What can you say about the Giants other than, boy have they turned things around. After a dreadful 1-2 start, I was quite ready to bury them (at least, after they upset the Bears), but they’re stormed back and are making a case to be the best team in the NFC East. Meanwhile, the bright spot of the Cowboys has been last year’s laughing stock: Roy Williams. Should the Cowboys be in this game come the 4th quarter, the Giants should be able to force Tony Romo into yet another game killing mistake. Giants win.

AFC
BUF vs BAL(+5)- Tough OT loss for the Ravens last week, but now, the perfect remedy.
JAC vs KC(+1)- Despite the tough loss against the Texans, the Chiefs finally showed a passing offense, something they’ll need. Even though the Texans defense is far from the best pass defense, the Jaguars isn’t much better. Kansas City gets back in the win column.
PIT vs MIA(+4)- The Steelers struggled a bit against the Browns before breaking things open in the 4th quarter, but that’s their game. The Dolphins have really impressed me, suffering losses only to the Jets, and the Patriots (thanks to a wild special teams flop). They play close games and have done a fairly good job of coming out on top. Expect a game. A really good game. Two teams that play tough, close games. My mind says Steelers, but this could be one of the few games the Steelers manage not to win this year. Dolphins win.
NE vs SD(-5)- San Diego, San Diego. How is it that a team can amass so much offense and come away with so little to show for it? Meanwhile, the Patriots have been a far cry from what they’ve been over the past decade, yet they’ve pulled out a 4-1 record. Stats versus guts. Patriots win.
OAK vs DEN(+2)- Every now and then I love to see a guy that gets ripped to shreds emerge from a team with a bad passing game/receivers and succeed with some real help. That’s what we seem to have with Kyle Orton. I vaguely remember watching one of his first starts in the league after a Rex Grossman injury and thinking “here’s a guy that doesn’t look terrible on a bad offensive team. Too bad he’ll probably never get a chance to start other than injury fill in.” Denver hasn’t looked too bad and the Raiders are next up. Broncos win.

INT
CIN vs ATL(+1)- The Falcons defense got burned by the Maclin/Jackson combo and now face another good receiving corps. Carson Palmer has been mistake prone, however, though he has the potential to still play a good game. Matt Ryan looked terrible last week, but if he gets protection, should be able to win the game for Atlanta. Falcons win.
PHI vs TEN(+4)- Impressive win for the Eagles and statement performance from Kolb who looks to be getting the start again this week. DeSean Jackson won’t be in to open things up for everyone else, but they have plenty of offensive talent to keep things rolling. A big factor is the Eagles hit or miss run defense (is it just me, or does it seem like they only give up runs of either 2 or fewer yards or 5 or more?). Chris Johnson breaks a big one or two, but the Eagles should keep him contained for the most part and I’ll take the Eagles secondary over Vince Young. Eagles win a close game.
CLE vs NO(+5)- Colt McCoy has an easier task than he did last week against the Pittsburg D (okay, one of these days I’ll go a week without gushing about the Steelers defense or giving someone from last week a free pass for having to play them) but the Saints are no push over either. They finally looked really good last week by dominating the Buccanears. They haven’t been pretty, but they’ve been getting the job done. Saints win.