Title weekend

Packers vs Bears- The Bears are one of those teams that you just can't figure out why they are good, but somehow, they keep being good and beating good teams. The Packers are a team you gotta love with a good defense and amazing passing game. It'll be a good game, but I'm going to have to stick with the prototypical late season fire catching team in Green Bay.

Jets vs Steelers- The Jets beat the Steelers not very long ago and aren't backing down to anyone at this point. You couldn't ask for a more confident 6th seed. But the Steelers have been money in the playoffs as of late. It's hard to bet against them. But my playoff picks have been so bad, that I might as well try something unconventional and take the team that has already posted 2 big playoff upsets. Jets win.

Divisional Round

Steelers vs Ravens: A typical flip a coin game. It's hind of hard to see either team losing this game. I'm going to have to take the Ravens to win, though. If I'm the Ravens, I focus on avoiding turnovers, and I should be fine. Ravens win.

Falcons vs Packers: The more I think back to the Eagles/Packers game, the less I am impressed with the Packers and the more it seems that the Eagles just choked it away. The Packers could very easily make this a game, however. But I like the Falcons to win this one.

Bears vs Seahawks: Any chance I would have given the Seahawks was lost when I saw Pete Carroll's post game comment after beating the Saints. He said something to the tune of, "Next week, we're going to shock the world a second time." Someone's trying to pump the "nobody believes in us" card for all it's worth. A team that really believes that nobody believes in them doesn't go out making all kinds of predictions and guarentees. They do there thing, then smile and nod after the game. I think they'll make it a good game, and I don't have a whole lot of faith in the Bears to not completely collapse, but Chicago wins.

Patriots vs Jets: If the Jets lose in any way other than a last minute field goal, their mouths should be duct taped shut for the rest of their lives. Of course, the Patriots haven't been taking the high ground either. It's games like this where you wish that neither team would be able to have the pride of backing up their rediculous talk. Patriots win

Playoffs round 1

This is coming in a bit late and the Seahawks have already pulled a shocking upset. But no matter, I would have picked the Saints anyway. 0-1.
Colts - Jets: I just don't trust the Jets. And I don't like a team that I can't trust against Peyton in the playoffs. Colts win.

Chiefs - Ravens: Ravens definitely have the upper hand. But the Chiefs are a scrappy team. Not a very good one, but scrappy. Nevertheless, if the Ravens can get the run/pass ratio down and if Ray Rice can get yards against the Chiefs defense, they should win. Nice year for the Chiefs, but bye-bye.

Eagles - Packers: As an Eagles fan, I want to believe that they should pull this one off. As an analyst, I have absolutely no idea who the favorite is. The week 1 matchup sheds absolutely no light on this game. Vick only played the 2nd half, and neither team had really game planned for him, so he just ran around and made plays. Not so this time. The Eagles are trying to figure out how to protect Vick and keep the offense rolling, and the Packers are spending every ounce of their game planning working on the most Vick-proof defense. On the other side of the ball, the Packers offense hasn't been the explosive one we expected going into this season. It's still pretty good though. If the Eagles front can hold up against the run allowing them to focus on the pass, they should keep the Packers in check. It should be a great game. I'm going to go homer on this one and take the Eagles.

week 17

Time for crap shoot week 17 where you never know which teams will be quitting or which will go for the win. 141-99 on the year
By Picking Record
13-2: Giants
11-4: Lions, Saints, Falcons, Panthers
10-5: Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Vikings, Cardinals, Buccaneers
9-6: Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Colts, Bills, Packers, Rams, Eagles
8-7: Chargers, Dolphins, Bengals, Seahawks
7-8: Broncos, Texans, Patriots, Browns, 49ers, Redskins, Cowboys
6-9: Jets, Bears

NFC
CAR vs ATL- With the Falcons needing a win to secure the 1 seed (though a Saints loss would also do it), they'll be playing this game, at least until they've completely distanced themselves from the Panthers
MIN vs DET- Lions ride this late season run all the way to the finish. Lions win
TB vs NO- At some point in this game, the Saints look at the scoreboard and see "Falcons 31 - Panthers 6" and realize they have no shot at a 1 seed. Then they sit starters and the Buccaneers, who are fighting for a shot at the playoffs, come back to win.
NYG vs WAS- The Giants are a mess right now. But surely they won't fall victim to the Redskins and Rex Grossman....will they? Giants win.
DAL vs PHI- Eagles give Kolb the start, possibly one of the best backups in the league. The question is, who else gets the rest? The more, the better. I look for a good defensive showing in this game against Stephen McGee (when does someone with that last name ever become a good NFL QB? Come one, haha). Even though the Cowboys are the sensible pick against the shut it down Eagles, my gut keeps telling me that they will still pull this one off. Eagles win.
ARI vs SF- Coin flips. 49ers win.
CHI vs GB- Chicago rests starters after outside chance at a 1 seed is lost, thanks to the Eagles Tuesday Night loss clinching them the 2. Thus Green Bay wins, gets into the playoffs, and eliminates the Giants. So the Philadelphia Eagles will have killed the Giants 3 times this season: The 2 defeats, and the improbable loss to Minnesota which allowed the Bears to tank a game that the Giants needed them to win.
STL vs SEA- Head: Rams win. Much better team. Heart: Seahawks win. I'd love a 7-9 team that ESPN currently has ranked 26th in the league to make the playoffs. I just don't think it'll happen though. Rams win

AFC
PIT vs CLE- Really pulling for the Browns to give the Ravens the 1 seed, unfortunately, the Steelers take care of business. Steelers win
OAK vs KC- Chiefs have the division clinched, but still have enough left in the tank to take care of them Raiders.
MIA vs NE- Patriots sit Brady after a few plays, and Dolphins win, becoming the first NFL team to go 7-1 on the road and 1-7 at home. Congrats!
BUF vs NYJ- No matter who they start or sit, the Jets outman the Bills.
CIN vs BAL- Since the Browns usually keep the Steelers close before losing, the Ravens will keep playing this game 'till the end. Ravens win.
JAC vs HOU- No Jones-Drew. No lucky series of events to make the playoffs. But the still pull off the win over the crumbled Texans. Jaguars win
TEN vs IND- Win and in for Peyton Manning. Anyone wanna pick the Titans in that scenario? Colts win
SD vs DEN- The years dissappointment gets one final respect win by slowing down Tebow's little streak. Chargers win.

week 16

12-2: Giants
11-3: Lions
10-4: Vikings, Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers
9-5: Chiefs, Jaguars, Ravens, Steelers, Rams, Buccaneers, Eagles
8-6: Raiders, Chargers, Titans, Colts, Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Packers
7-7: Broncos, Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, Cowboys, Redskins
6-8: Jets, Patriots, Browns, Bears

NFC
DAL vs ARI- The Cowboys have finally become what I thought they would be before the season. An incredibly competitive team. Their defense, however, is a far cry from what I expected. Nevertheless, the Cardinals offense poses minimal threat, either on offense or defense. Cowboys win.
SF vs STL- The hopes of seeing a sub .500 team in the playoffs are increasing every week with the Rams or Seahawks having to win out to reach 8-8. Rams seem to be sliding a little bit, I’ll take the 49ers to win.
NYG vs GB- Whether it’s allowing Desean Jackson to return a punt after fumbling, or allowing a right guard to return a kickoff 71 yards to the 4, these special teams units have some improving to do. Maybe they’ll just go for it on 4th down. Rodgers is back, so Packers win.
SEA vs TB- Surprisingly, both teams are fighting for the playoffs. I’ll take the Buccaneers to rebound from a Detroit surprise. Tampa Bay wins.
MIN vs PHI- Last week I said this game presented the potential for a letdown by the young Eagles players. I didn’t realize how bad the Vikings really are. Eagles win.
NO vs ATL- Would have been a colossal match up had the Saints won last week, now it’s a matter of seeing which team folds more, now that it doesn’t matter much and they could easily meet in the playoffs. Saints win.

AFC
TEN vs KC- Chiefs trying to hold onto the division. Their defense steps up against the Chris Johnson attack. Chiefs win.
NE vs BUF- The Bills are a really tantalizing upset pick…but I’m not crazy. Patriots win.
BAL vs CLE- In their last meeting, Peyton Hillis ran wild. The Ravens need to keep winning if they want a shot at the division, however, so they’ll take care of business.
HOU vs DEN- A good scout team defense for Tim Tebow to practice against, but Matt Shaub wins the shoot out. Texans win.
SD vs CIN- The Bengals finally won another game. But the Chargers are driving for the playoffs. Chargers win.
IND vs OAK- The stretch run will bring the best out of Manning. The Oakland defense that had a hard time stopping Tim Tebow last week will have their hands much fuller with Peyton. Colts win.

INT
CAR vs PIT- This is the “get out of jail free” card equivalent. Automatic win for the Steelers.
WAS vs JAC- If the Jaguars can stop Rex Grossman, they keep their playoff hopes alive. That doesn’t sound so bad, does it? Jaguars win.
DET vs MIA- Detroit on a mini roll, the Dolphins sliding. What does this mean? Dolphins win of course. I rode the Lions momentum to a correct upset pick last week, but no more. Dolphins are a better all around team and playing for respect. Miami wins.
NYJ vs CHI- After seeing them take down the Steelers, I’m taking the Jets, and hoping they don’t have one of their random flunk games.

123-85 on the season, here’s how it looks by team:
11-2: Giants
10-3: Lions, Cardinals, Saints, Panthers
9-4: Steelers, Ravens, Vikings, Falcons
8-5: Chiefs, Jaguars, Titans, Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, Rams, Buccaneers, Eagles
7-6: Raiders, Chargers, Texans, Colts, Packers
6-7: Broncos, Jets, Browns, 49ers, Seahawks, Cowboys, Redskins
5-8: Patriots, Bears,

NFC (49-29)
WSH vs DAL- Benching McNabb for Grossman is never a good sign, no matter what your take on McNabb is. The Redskins are a team that’s season is eroded. Meanwhile the Cowboys have been playing better, being a competitive team even in losses to the Saints and Eagles. Cowboys win.
DET vs TB- Detroit coming off a defensive win (I absolutely did not see a low scoring game coming there, much less 10 total points), and the Bucs coming off a victory over the Redskins place holder. The Buccaneers are still contending, and I signed off all faith in the Lions last week. Yet, going off of last week’s performances, I’m taking the Lions to win.
ARI vs CAR- Anyone over the Panthers, and Arizona showed that they’re capable of beating other bad teams last week. Cardinals win.
PHI vs NYG- Another possible let down game for the young Philadelphia Eagles, though I’m more worried about the Vikings next week if the Eagles win here, in terms of not showing up for the game. In their last meeting, both teams went away feeling like they easily could have won by at least two scores. Whoever can do a better job at cutting out mistakes and coming through in the clutch (I’ll take Vick over Eli here) gets the win. Another hard fought NFC East game, I’ll take the Eagles.
ATL vs SEA- Atlanta is 11-2, yet only has a one game lead in their division. No way they can afford to take their foot off the gas. Falcons win.
CHI vs MIN- Good bounce back opportunity for the Bears as the Vikings QB situation has gone from shaky to…I don’t even know what other quarterback they have if Favre doesn’t go (Jackson is on the IR). Bears win
AFC (42-33)
CLE vs CIN- In their earlier matchup, I think I remember saying that I wasn’t quite ready to bet on the Browns in this matchup. Now I’m more than ready, especially with Colt McCoy back at quarterback. Browns win.
HOU vs TEN- Two teams, two lost seasons. Two teams, one team with a lot more talent. Texans win.
JAC vs IND- The Colts have certainly not looked like themselves this season, especially Manning, but expect they to pass all over a Jaguars secondary that looked bad against the Raiders. Colts win.
BUF vs MIA- Could go either way. The Bills are playing for some respect and Dolphins are a pretty good football team. Dolphins win.
NYJ vs PIT- Will the Jets realize that they haven’t made the playoffs yet? Will they bounce back from a couple awful games? Will Santonio Holmes be fired up to scorch his former team? Or will the Steelers keep being the Steelers? Both the Steelers and Ravens face quality teams who are trying to catch their division leader and improve their playoff spot, making these two games crucial in deciding the AFC North. This game could be really good, but as of now, the Jets are shaky. Steelers win.
DEN vs OAK- The Broncos have lost the only remaining good part of their game-the passing offense. Raiders win.
IND (31-25)
SF vs SD- Chargers won!
KC vs STL- Iffy if Matt Cassell can go, but the Rams offense is much less formidable than that of the Chargers, so the Chiefs defense should be able to win this game. Chiefs win.
NO vs BAL- The other of the important AFC North games, the Saints have been on fire since a mediocre start. Meanwhile, the Ravens have showed a few kinks in their armor. The biggest drive to win, however, belongs to the Ravens, who have a much better chance of catching the Steelers than the Saints do of overtaking Atlanta. Ravens win.
GB vs NE- Looking for a statement game from Green Bay? Here’s a chance, though a statement it sure would be. The Patriots have looked as good as I can remember since the days of going for it on 4th down up by 40 to try to win by 50. Patriots win

thursday night week 15

SD vs SF- Two teams that are one game out of first place...makes you think they're about the same...but sorry San Fransisco. The competition cooling down in the race for the NFC West title, I'm hoping to see a team with a really, really bad record make the playoffs...and get the 4th seed. Just to show the NFL how bad their seeding system is (though at least there's actually a playoff). Meanwhile, I'm cheering on the Chargers to make the playoffs after that sloppy start. Basically, the Chargers are better, though with these two teams, you never quite know. Chargers win

Week 14

For anyone who might still be reading this, can i remind you that I said the Browns/Dolphins game had the greatest chance of being a close one out of any game this season? I think a game winning FG with 4 seconds left counts as close.

11-5 the last two weeks, here are the picks:
NFC (43-28)
GB vs DET- My time expecting the Lions to step up and win a small handfull of games is over. A defense that wouldn't scare a European football team and an offense that has to pass all the time isn't going to do much. Packers win.
NYG vs MIN- Sydney Rice is back to phenomenal, make-something-great-out-of-a-brainless-toss-into-the-air play, and, am I actually saying this, Travaris Jackson might bring some spark back to the offense if Favre doesn't hobble his way onto the field to extend his consecutive games streak. But the Giants are too good of an overall team to get sniped by the Vikings. Giants win.
TB vs WSH- If you plan on making the playoffs without beating any plus .500 teams, you better win games like this. Buccaneers win.
ATL vs CAR- Why bother talking about it? ESPN's #1 vs #32 team.
SEA vs SF- Neither team has any measurable consistency, but again, I like the bigger upside of the 49ers. San Fransisco wins.
STL vs NO- The Rams haven't done any damage against winning teams, like a poor man's Buccaneers, and the Saints are on a roll. I'd look for the outside chance of this being a very interesting game, as Sam Bradford has played great for a rookie quarterback. Saints win.
PHI vs DAL- I don't care how bad one of the teams might be. I don't care that the Cowboys win over the Colts and near victory over the Saints were reliant almost entirely off stupid mistakes by the opponent (and overcoming quite a few of their own). Eagles Cowboys is never a brush off game. What I like is a Micahel Vick who has shown more ability to overcome adversity and bring his best game in the 4th quarter when it matters than Donovan did in his entire career. What I don't like is a Miles Austin that has a knack for tearing apart the Eagles secondary, even with Asante Samuel, and a Dallas defense that seems to be regaining a bit of its swagger from last year. Even though the Eagles are hands down the better team right now, all bets are off in matchups like these. Nevertheless, I'll take the Eagles to win.

AFC (37-31)
IND vs TEN- The Colts have been looking shaky as of late, but the Titans are no threatening opponent either. As long as manning doesn't throw another 4 interceptions, they should be fine.
CLE vs BUF- If this was college football, the Browns would be much higher in the ranks thanks to strength of schedule wins. If they can avoid lowering their play to an inferior team that has been turning a few heads as of late, they keep the positives building to take into next year. Browns win.
CIN vs PIT- How will the Bengals manage to lose this one? Steelers win.
OAK vs JAC- Bigger surprise: Chiefs or Jaguars? I say Jaguars, not because I thought that the Cheifs would be better, but there's no way that I would have thought they'd rise to the top of a division with the Colts and the looking good Texans, not to mention the possible Cinderella Titans, had you asked me in August. I still don't know what kind of play to expect from up and down Raiders, but I'm liking Jacksonville. Jaguars win.
MIA vs NYJ- Good season for the Dolphins, and this is a must win game if they want to get back into the race, but the Jets don't have any intention of losing to another division opponent after an embarrassing beat down by the Patriots. Jets win.
KC vs SD- Wouldn't been a very interesting game, but Matt Cassell is out. If the Chiefs can recreate their week 1 bull crap win with defense, special teams, and a non existent passing game, then they'll deserve all the kudos in the world. But until then, I'm taking the Chargers. Chargers win.
BAL vs HOU- The Texans train has pulled into the station. Season's all but over. All it'll take to say a final farewell to it, is a beating by a much superior Ravens team. Ravens win.

INT (30-24)
DEN vs ARI- Ugg, hate picking games like this. Though at least the Brocos offense has been doing a few good things. Arizona on the other hand hasn't looked all that great. Broncos pick up a rare win.
NE vs CHI- Well if we don't know if the Bears are for real yet, we will after this game. The Patriots offense looks like it could beat anybody right now, and the Bears bring a worthy opponent. If Jay Cutler can get his good side on the field, they'll make this a game, but it's hard to bet against the Patriots right now. Patriots win.

Week 13 Picks

Last week's team by team record:
9-2: Lions, Cardinals, Giants
8-3: Bills, Vikings, Panthers, Saints
7-4: Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Packers, Falcons
6-5: Raiders, Chargers, Chiefs, Jaguars, Titans, Colts, Jets, Bengals, Rams, Buccaneers, Eagles (now 7-5)
5-6: Broncos, Texans (now 6-6), Browns, 49ers, Cowboys
4-7: Patriots, Seahawks, Redskins
3-8: Bears


NFC
CHI vs DET – It’s about time someone gives the Bears some credit. All they’ve done is kept winning but whether it be the aura of Jay Cutler or some other reason, nobody has wanted to say they’re good. But no worries, whether they’re a Super Bowl team or not, they’re a whole lot better than the Lions. Bears win.
SF vs GB- Upset pick!!! Green Bay’s non-existent running game will eventually come back to hurt them, and I’m going with the San Francisco resurgence to shock a few people. 49ers win.
WSH vs NYG- The Giants are on a bit of rough stretch, but should be able to beat off the Redskins who are struggling. Giants win.
CAR vs SEA- Even if Howard Dean gave the Seahawks their pep speech, I’d still have no worries about them being able to beat the hapless Panthers. Seahawks win.
ATL vs TB- The clock is running out for the Buccaneers to beat someone good and build a case for their credibility. After Sunday, the clock will have run out. Falcons win.
STL vs ARI- The Rams are looking pretty decent. Given their division, they’re looking great. Rams win.

AFC
JAC vs TEN- The Titans are down and out, the Jaguars are rising into the late blooming surprise wild card contender. Jaguars win.
DEN vs KC- Even if Howard Dean was the Chiefs quarterback, he’d still be able to get the ball to Dwayne Bowe. Chiefs win.
CLE vs MIA- This’ll be a close tough game. If I had to pick one game out of the whole season that I’m convinced will be close, this would probably be it. Neither offense is going to run away with it, and both teams will make big plays on both sides of the ball. But I like me them Browns. Browns win.
OAK vs SD- The Chargers have finally filled the cracks in an otherwise excellent team and continue their playoff surge.
PIT vs BAL- Last time these two teams met, it came down to the wire. Now, Roethlisberger is at quarterback, making the Steelers offense much more formidable, though it remains to be seen what extent the foot injury is. And I wish no harm on anyone, but if James Harrison keeps playing such a mindless style of football, he’ll eventually send someone to the IR and get himself suspended. Again, I’m not hoping for it, but in this rivalry game where he’ll be especially angry, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Flacco or perhaps a WR go down. Teams like this tend to split regular season meetings and then it’s free game in the playoffs. Steelers win.
NYJ vs NE- Hey, anyone good enough to beat the Patriots, you know I’m going to pick them. How New England is doing so well with such a bad defense is beyond me. A little Pre-Super Bowl Colts perhaps? They might do well, but I find their team build to be highly vulnerable in playoff football. Jets win.

INT
PHI vs HOU- Picked the Eagles and they won.
NO vs CIN- Who Dey? Who Dat? Matchup of the two NFL teams with the stupidest catch phrases/cheers/whatever the crap who dey/dat is supposed to be. But that’s the only thing they have in common. Good team. Bad team. Team players. T.O. and Ocho Cinco. Yeah, there’s a vast difference between the two clubs. Saints win.
BUF vs MIN- Buffalo is turning into a decent team, especially down the stretch when it doesn’t matter. I like those teams that bloom late and have nothing to play for other than a little respect and pride. And I don’t like very much about the Vikings right now. Bills win.
DAL vs IND- High scoring game. Seems like I’ve said that about the last few Cowboys games. And it seems to have turned out pretty much like that. But no way the Cowboys defense comes up with 4 picks off of Manning. Colts win.

Eagles vs Texans Thursday Night

Getting this pick in before the rest. Thursday night features the Houston Texans who are fighting to save their playoff hopes, and the Philadelphia Eagles coming off a streak ending loss to Chicago. The Texans finally showed the thing they were lacking last week: defense. A shut out of anyone is impressive. Even if it was a rookie quarterback, they still have Chris Johnson, a threat to score any time. The much more balanced attack of the Eagles should put them back to the highly vulnerable defense they've looked like for much of the season. On the other side of the ball, the Texans offense hasn't looked like the juggernaut that we saw early in the season over the last few weeks. However, the Eagles defense has been a mystery of its own. They're not going to shut down an offense like the Texans, but they certainly have the potential to slow them down and contain them when need be. We saw them do this against Peyton Manning as well as shut down the Packers offense after falling behind, allowing an almost comeback. But we've also seen them get burned by the likes of Kenny Britt and Jay Cutler. both of those games, however, came after a big win against the Falcons (then considered tops in the NFC) and the Giants (to take over the NFC East). The youth of the Eagles team seems to have played into these let-downs a lot. So will the Eagles re-focus in time for Thursday Night? Will they be able to match Houston's desperation? We'll see. Eagles win

Week 12

8-2: Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Giants
7-3: Bills, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Panthers
6-4: Chargers, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Eagles
5-5: Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars, Texans, Jets, Bengals, Rams, Buccaneers
4-6: Broncos, Browns, 49ers, Redskins, Cowboys
3-7: Seahawks, Patriots, Bears

Currently sitting at 89-71 after a 10-6 week 11.
NFC (36-24)
NO vs DAL- This one scared me, but the Saints won (1-0 on Thanksgiving).
GB vs ATL- Could go either way. This game is going to determine who gets to be called the NFC’s top team in conversation VS Philly (should they win). Both teams are playing great, great football. So without clear reason I can see, I’ll roll with the Packers and their better defense. Packers win.
MIN vs WSH- Jason Garrettesque revival for the Vikings? We’ll see. But I’m not going to bet on it. Redskins win with one of their unpredictable good games, and lose with an unpredictable bad game. I’ll say Redskins win.
PHI vs CHI- Another defensive test for the Michael Vick offense. The Eagles defense, however, is among the top teams in the league in INTs and go up against Jay Cutler himself. Whatever the Bears defense can muster, the Eagles defense counters. Eagles win.
SF vs ARI- Two bad NFC West teams. I like the 49ers upside a whole lot more, however. 49ers win.

AFC 30-26
CIN vs NYJ- Jets won handily (2-0 on Thanksgiving)
PIT vs BUF- Saw the Bills described as “Red Hot.” Even so, I’m not buying them in this game. The most interesting thing here is seeing what controversial hit/call/whatever will have a member of the Steelers saying something ridiculous about during the week. Steelers win.
TEN vs HOU- Houston is reeling. The Titans are falling. Biggest adjustment for the Titans to make, with Young out at QB, but fortunately that happens against the Texans defense. Titans win.
MIA vs OAK- No idea what to do with the Raiders. So I might as well go with my previous Raiders picking strategy, as well as a Miami team that I still like, despite them being down to their 3rd QB. And they’re coming off a Thursday Night extended week of rest. Dolphins win.
SD vs IND- Really good game here. Chargers are fighting to get back into things before another couple losses proves them too late. They’ve historically played the Colts well, but both teams look fairly different this year. Colts win.

INT 22-22
NE vs DET- Patriots took advantage of a plethora of mistakes that characterize a typical Lions team (3-0 on Thanksgiving!)
CAR vs CLE- Finally, a game the Browns can win easily. They’ve had a rough, rough schedule. Browns win.
JAC vs NYG- Giants get back to their winning ways after a two week hiatus. The Jaguars are doing surprisingly well, but the Giants defense will be too much. Giants win.
KC vs SEA- Dwayne Bowe is absolutely on fire right now, bringing some heat to an otherwise iffy offense. Chiefs win.
STL vs DEN- Really hard to pick the Broncos. They could bust out a big offensive performance any time, but their defense is quite lacking. Rams win.
TB vs BAL- The Bucs just haven’t beaten anyone yet. I usually don’t like that argument, but in this case it seems fitting. And the Ravens are just the better team. Ravens win.

Thanksgiving Picks

NE vs DET- Bad defenses and good offenses for both teams, but the Patriots are much, much better at pulling off the Madden style team. One of the more exciting Lions Thanksgiving day games we've seen in a while, but no change in the result. Patriots win.
NO vs DAL- We get to see the revved up Cowboys go against a good team now, although it might be skewed by both teams playing on short rest. The Saints have finally gotten things going, and the Cowboys look to make a real statement. Until they do, I'm no believer. Saints win.
CIN vs NYJ- I'm not sure whether it'll take a miracle for the Bengals to actually win a game, or whether it'll take a miracle for them to not start winning down the stretch. Either way, they've been a highly entertaining bad team. New York is really looking good, however. Jets win.

Horrid, horrid week 10 going 4-10, and seeing all my 7-1 teams drop to 7-2, and already off to a bad start after having picked the Dolphins to beat the Bears. Now that bye weeks are finished, the “By Picking Record” is a little clearer:
By Picking Record
7-2: Bills, Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Giants
6-3: Packers, Saints, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Panthers, Falcons
5-4: Chargers, Jaguars, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Buccaneers, Eagles
4-5: Raiders, Chiefs, Texans, Jets, Browns, Rams, 49ers, Redskins
3-6: Broncos, Patriots, Bears, Cowboys
2-7: Seahawks

NFC
DET vs DAL- For all the promise the Lions have shown, they haven’t shown the ability to win. Meanwhile, the Cowboys actually looked alright last week. But even last week their defense was shaky, so expect a big day for Calvin “Megatron” Johnson, no matter who is throwing him the ball. In a high scoring game, the Cowboys win.
GB vs MIN- The Vikings are simply going down in icicles. Meanwhile, the Packers seem to have cured or at least patched up some of their earlier problems. Packers win.
TB vs SF- Troy Smith is the kind of guy I love seeing get a chance. Everyone labeled him as a college only quarterback and now he’s stuck around in the NFL long enough to win a starting job and look pretty good while doing it. The Buccaneers have also been good but haven’t had any statement wins yet, so I’ll roll with Troy Smith and the upset. 49ers win.
SEA vs NO- Finally, a Seahawks game that I might be able to get right. The Saints are looking better and their Steelers beat down a few weeks back boosts my confidence level in that a lot. Saints win.
ATL vs STL- The Falcons might not be the number one team in the league like ESPN’s power rankings say, but they’re still better than the Rams. By a lot. Falcons win.
NYG vs PHI- Tough game for sure. The Giants suffered the NFC’s top team syndrome last week, keeping up the title’s tradition of losing. The Eagles are playing as good as I’ve seen them in all my years as an Eagles fan. And they happen to have the hottest player in the whole league. Eagles win.

AFC
BUF vs CIN- The Bengals have been so close in a lot of games against good teams. Now that they’re basically eliminated from the playoffs, I’m sure they’ll start doing better. And the Bills, though Buffalo hasn’t looked entirely putrid, are still a good place to start. Bengals win.
HOU vs NYJ- The Jets are in the top echelon of NFL teams right now, and the Texans are reeling after a hail mary loss to the Jags. Jets defense can slow down the Texans offense, and the Texans defense shouldn’t be much of an obstacle for Mark Sanchez. Jets win.
OAK vs PIT- Finally someone to stop this ugly Raiders train. Maybe it’s just hating the Raiders, maybe I just can’t stand seeing a team win when their head coach looks like someone who’s greatest life achievement would be winning a bar fight. Steelers win.
CLE vs JAC- Finally a bit of a breather for the Browns, though the Jaguars have been coming around and aren’t nearly as bad as we thought they were a few weeks ago. If the Browns keep up the intensity that they’ve had over the last 4 weeks, however, it’ll be a tough, pounding victory. Browns win.
IND vs NE- High scoring game. Which means very unpredictable game. Which means I’ll go with a fan pick. Colts win.
DEN vs SD- It would be wrong to say that the Chargers have finally got things rolling. It’s just that now they’re still rolling and their special teams haven’t singlehandedly lost them their past few games. The Broncos had a field day vs the Chiefs, but they face a bigger monster this week. Chargers win.

INT
CHI vs MIA (I picked the ‘Phins. Bears won)
WAS vs TEN- I wouldn’t pick the Redskins to beat very many teams. Randy Moss gets better in his second game with the Titans. Tennessee wins.
ARI vs KC- The Chiefs finally get back on the right track against a bad Cardinals team and buckle up for the stretch to try to live up to the promise they showed early in the season. Chiefs win.
BAL vs CAR- Deangelo Williams could have rebounded from a bad season and made the Panthers competitive. Instead, he hit the IR. Ravens win.

Thursday night pick

Time to get a quick pick in before the Thursday night game.
CHI vs MIA- The Bears are the one of the least respected 6-3 teams I can remember. The ESPN power ranking has them around 19 behind a plethora of 5-4, 4-4, and maybe even a 4-5 team or two, while there are only 3 or so teams with records better than 6-3. This game should be an intersting matchup with two strong defenses against two mediocre, though at times very capable offenses. The Dolphins were dropped down to their 3rd stringer, yet Tyler Thigpen has played quite well in his previous NFL showings. Given the Dolphins offense that makes due without any huge stars, he'll be fine. The game comes down to the Dolphins needing a win to avoid falling to 5-5 in a very tough division with the Jets and Patriots. Dolphins win.

75-55 on the season. I've said before that my NFC picks are much more reliable than my AFC picks. Look at the 'By Picking Record' section below. 7 or the 8 top teams are NFC teams, however, 4 of the 6 bottam teams are also NFC teams. This just goes to show that when it comes to my picks, NFC is best with a few bad apples. All but 3 AFC teams fall into the "mid range" of 5-3 to 4-5. So I'm a little bit better than flipping a coin, it would seem.

By Picking Record
7-1: Bills, Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Giants
6-2: Falcons
6-3: Packers, Saints
5-3: Jaguars, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Ravens, Steelers, Panthers
5-4: Chargers
4-4: 49ers, Rams, Chiefs, Texans, Jets, Browns, Bengals, Buccaneers, Eagles
4-5: Raiders
3-5: Broncos, Redskins, Patriots, Bears, Cowboys
2-6: Seahawks

Week 10
NFC
MIN vs CHI(+4)- Finally saw some life out of the Vikings at the end of last week’s game. Meanwhile, the Bears fought off the most valiant 0-8 team ever. I think the Bears will turn a few heads yet before the season’s over, but only for those of us who are ruling them out. Vikings win.
CAR vs TB(+2)- Tampa Bay lost a close one to the Falcons, adding to the NFC trend of the recently crowned favorite losing. But Carolina is a good was away from being good; they’re probably worse than the Bills despite their one win. Buccaneers win.
SEA vs ARI(+2)- The Cardinals are showing some fight, although they collapsed at the end of the Minnesota game. Coming off a terrible game, I once again have no idea what the Seahawks will look like. In a game that has playoff significance due to the greatness that is the NFC west, the Cardinals pull a slight upset. Cardinals win
DAL vs NYG(+4)- Cowboys stink. Giants surprisingly the best team in the NFC at this point. Thought that title hasn’t been worn well by its previous owners, it’s the Cowboys. Giants win.
STL vs SF(0)- In another game that by all means shouldn’t have playoff significance, but does for at least the Rams, and I suppose does for the 2-6 49ers who are still only 2 games out of first place, the 49ers try to get back into things. Bye week for the Rams, who crack .500 by taking care of business over San Fransisco. Rams win.
PHI vs WSH(-2)- Coming off a signature, though far from flawless, victory over the Colts, the Eagles are a much more tested team than they were during the last meeting. Meanwhile in Washington, McNabb is less trusted by his coaches than he was by Philadelphia fans. Two teams going in entirely different directions than they were last time. Eagles win.

AFC
NYJ vs CLE(0)- Wow, wanted to pick the Browns so much last week. They are, without a doubt, the team that I’ve wanted to pick the most while being unable to do so for various reasons. And here we are again, with a Jets team that matches up well against the Browns, yet me wanting to pick the Browns all the while. Colt McCoy has been impressive, very impressive and here’s another great test. We know that Peyton Hillis is going to beast his way for yardage against any defense. Slowly but surely, the Browns offense is coming to life, as is their defense. I’m playing against the odds, but I’m going for 3 huge Cleveland upsets in 3 weeks. Browns win.
TEN vs MIA(+4)- I might as well flip a coin. Tennessee is in for either a jolt with Randy Moss’s presence, or a slow and steady crumble. Moss and Britt on the same field down the road? Scary. But so was Palmer/T.O./Ochocinco. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had an understandable down game against the Ravens. I still like the Dolphins, however. Dolphins win.
CIN vs IND(+2)- The Bengals just can’t do anything right, at least not when it counts. Are they the worst, very competitive team I’ve ever seen? Quite possibly. Colts win.
HOU vs JAC(+2)- The Jaguars have been outscored by almost 100 points in their 4 losses. I don’t think their offense can keep up in a real shoot out. If the Texans can get their offense firing on all 11 cylinders, they could simply outrun the Jaguars. Texans win.
KC vs DEN(-2)- Just hard to pick the Broncos right now. And equally hard to pick against the Chiefs, even if they did lose a close game to Oakland. Chiefs win.
NE vs PIT(0)- I thought this game would be where everyone realized that the Patriots weren’t worth putting at the top of the of the NFL power rankings. As it turns out, that was last week’s game. This week’s is to convince all the homers and Tom Brady lovers. Steelers win.

INT
BAL vs ATL(+6)- Flacco vs Ryan, and on the national spotlight. It could go either way if the Falcons play their top game. The Ravens continue to impress me a lot, and the Falcons are still a bit shaky in my eyes. Ravens win.
DET vs BUF(+12)- Well, I could try this whole Buffalo thing again, but the Lions are my other team that I believe could really be an upset specialist. Overall, they have better talent and have played some good teams down to the wire, including the Jets last week. Lions win.

Currently sitting at 67-50 after a disapointing 7-6 week 8. The following is my record picking by team, and the numbers in parentheses are the number of games above or below .500 in games involving those two teams. Buffalo is standing strong as my last perfect team and the Seahawks kept up their trouble making, remaining at one win.

7-0: Bills
6-1: Lions, Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, Giants
5-2: Colts
5-3: Jaguars, Titans, Packers, Saints
4-3: Steelers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Browns, Ravens, Eagles, Panthers, Buccaneers
4-4: Raiders, Chargers, 49ers, Rams
3-4: Bengals, Jets, Patriots, Texans, Bears
3-5: Broncos, Redskins
2-5: Cowboys
1-6: Seahawks


NFC (25-16)
TB vs ATL(+6)- On one side, the Buccaneers are turning into the late surprise team of the year, slowing showing the ability to win. On the other, a Falcons team that we know is talented, but is much less consistent. It’s hard to feel at all comfortable with a team that wins a shoot out with the Bengals. Their defense, which was playing well earlier has looked highly suspect recently. I think the Falcons can pull things together and make a playoff run, but as of week 9, Buccaneers win.
NO vs CAR(+3)- The Saints haven’t been a Super Bowl team, but after their Steelers beat down, they’ve shown they still have some hop on their step. Possible let down game potential here, but no worries from my end. Saints win.
ARI vs MIN(+10)- Will the Cardinals get back on the ways of looking terrible, yet winning, or will they just continue to look bad? I have no idea what the Vikings will look like, with Favre as injured as any player I can ever remember. This one’s tough, but I’ll take the underperformer to get things going rather than the previous over performer to return to form. Vikings win.
NYG vs SEA(0)- The Giants running game is beast, and they’re looking really good. After the Eagles collapse against Tennessee, I’m confidently calling them the best team in the NFC east (and quite possibly the NFC) for the time being. And coming off a bye, it would take a major surprise by the Seahawks for them to lose. However, given my past picking record, maybe that’s a good reason to pick the Seahawks. Giants win.
DAL vs GB(-1)- I have finally rid myself of the feeling that the Cowboys will eventually get things together. Meanwhile, the Packers majorly got things together. Packers win.

AFC (22-17)
NE vs CLE(0)- Really tempted to pick the upset here, however, picking an upset when the team’s previous game was a monumental upset usually isn’t a good idea. An upset is an upset because the one team isn’t very good, and it’s usually too much to ask for them to put two great games together back to back. But the Patriots are possibly the most suspect one loss team in memory, so it could go either way. I’ll take my gut and say Patriots win.
MIA vs BAL(+2)- As high as I am on Miami, this will be a tough match up as they’ve had a rough post bye week, AFC North stretch. Baltimore, meanwhile, is fresh off bye week and looking to capitalize on the Steelers loss last week. Ravens gut this one out. Baltimore wins.
SD vs HOU(-1)- The demise of the Texans could be imminent. They have the defense for an explosive offensive team, but that offense has taken its fair share of off days. Expect a field day for the Chargers offense. The Chargers defense has been equally inept at times, of course, so there could be a lot of lightning in this game. I’ll take the Chargers to come out on top.
KC vs OAK(+1)- Okay, someone’s got to stop this Oakland run (though if the Raiders do decent, that means that their first round pick, which the Patriots have, will be lower. And I’m in favor of not handing Belicheck easy talent). Kansas City should be able to slow down the Raiders offense (did I just say that?), which again puts the ball in the hands of Matt Cassel and the offense. That is scary, but they’ve done a decent job recently. Chiefs win.
PIT vs CIN(0)- The Steelers will be ticked and take it out on the Bengals receivers who are more focused on the T.Ocho Show. Steelers win.

INT (19-16)
CHI vs BUF(+6)- Two over time losses against good teams? I can’t believe what I’m saying, but here it goes: I’M SOLD ON THE BUFFALO BILLS!!! Maybe not for long, but after last week’s game, I thought to myself, “This team isn’t 0-16 caliber. Unless they’re playing a really top notch team next week, I’m taking them.” I fully expected to back out of that commitment once I saw the match up and thought about it, but the Bears are the perfect team to lose to the Bills. All it takes is a little Jay Cutler anti-magic to take them from a competitive team to a bad one. On top of that, other bad teams would think “here’s a game we can win” when playing the Bills. A team like the Bears simply doesn’t want to be the team that loses to the Bills. Bills are the last team to get their first win.
NYJ vs DET(+4)- The Lions are another team that has very much improved from their colossal ineptitude the past two seasons. The Jets, however, are still a good defensive team, even if they are coming off an offensive goose egg. Could be a very competitive game, but I’ll go with the Jets.
IND vs PHI(+4)- In my Eagles experience, this is not a game they win. 1) They usually don’t play well against the AFC. 2) While their defense has the knack of absolutely shutting down star running backs from time to time, shutting down star QBs/passing attacks isn’t as common of an occurrence. 3) Should the defense hold up and have a lead going into the fourth quarter, the afore mentioned star quarterbacks have a way of picking apart their defense and getting back into the game. I expect Vick to play well and the Eagles offense is a good matchup against the Colts defense, but ultimately, the Colts come out on top.

Week 8 Picks

I picked a Seahawks game right! I picked a Seahawks game right! 9-5 (60-44 overall), that’s better, especially considering it came in a week that the Browns beat the Saints, the Raiders looked like the greatest show on turf, and the breaks kept going absurdly in the Steelers favor. Here’s the updated picks record. Again, the number beside each game in the picks is the number of games I am above or below .500 in games involving those two teams.

6-0: Lions, Bills
6-1: Falcons, Giants
5-1: Vikings, Cardinals
5-2: Jaguars, Packers, Saints
4-2: Colts, Steelers
4-3: Raiders, Titans, Browns, Ravens, 49ers, Eagles
3-3: Chiefs, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, Buccaneers
3-4: Broncos, Chargers, Bears, Rams, Redskins
2-4: Texans, Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys
1-5: Seahawks

NFC (23-15)
WSH vs DET(+5)- This is tough, the Redskins keep outperforming themselves, making them due for a loss, and the Lions have some good upset potential against mid-range to fairly good teams like Washington. Yet, the Redskins fight versus the Lions various “almost” games is tough to pick against. Redskins win.
CAR vs STL(-1)- Panthers finally picked up their first win, but I still have very little faith. I’ll take the Rams to tally a win here before they continue to fall back. Rams win.
TB vs ARI(+4)- I laughed at a headline I saw saying “Buccaneers NFC’s best?” I’m definitely not going there after a few mildly impressive wins by Tampa Bay. But last week, the Bucs took care of a mediocre NFC West team and they do it again this week. Buccaneers win.

AFC (18-17)
MIA vs CIN(-2)- The Bengals have discovered the impressive formula of how to put up huge passing numbers yet still lose week in and week out. Miami missed a lot of chances last week and it still took an officiating blunder for the Steelers to win. Now THAT impresses me. Dolphins win.
BUF vs KC(+6)- Kansas City has shown an offense the last two weeks, albeit against defenses that aren’t that great, but here they get another one. Chiefs win.
TEN vs SD(0)- The Titans look pretty good, but it’s games like these that keep them from getting into the group of good teams. The Chargers haven’t been terrible for a 2¬-5 team. This is the type of game they’ll be able to pull out. Chargers win.
HOU vs IND(0)- Week 1 rematch where we got our first glimpse of the Arian Foster we now know. Not a repeat performance for the Texans running back, though he could still have a very nice game against the Colts undersized defense. The Colts have things more together now, and the Texans have only looked more questionable as time goes by. Colts win.

INT (18-11)
JAC vs DAL(+1)- It’s hard to keep picking a team with as many talented players as Dallas to keep losing, but have they showed any winning ability? Both teams are playing with backup quarterbacks. Neither is very good. But I guess Miles Austin big plays will eventually be enough to win some games here and there. Cowboys win.
DEN vs SF(0)- Broncos are 2-5. 49ers are 1-6. Like Jags/’boys, it’s hard to pick either. Troy Smith brings a spark to the 49ers, but that spark might not lead to a fire. The Broncos look to bounce back from a humiliating trouncing by the Raiders and that should motivate them. Broncos win.
GB vs NYJ(+3)- The Packers win over Minnesota showed grit, but far from proved that their problems are gone, showed that they have more, if anything. The Jets are still looking good and I’ll take their consistency over the Packers potential. Jets win.
MIN vs NE(+2)- The Vikings continue to sink and the Patriots keep winning, though Belicheck’s bad case of feelings of invincibility nearly cost them last week. Moss playing against his team of several weeks ago adds intrigue, but unless Favre manages to get himself back on the field AND plays better than he has been, that intrigue won’t last long into a Patriots blowout. Patriots win.
SEA vs OAK(-3)- Rule #1: If in doubt, don’t pick the Raiders. I’m not convinced that the Seahawks are really good, and I’m not as sure as I once was that the Raiders are totally aweful. But nothing good has ever come from picking Oakland (at least for me), so I’ll stick with the Seahawks to keep impressing. Seahawks win.
PIT vs NO(+5)- The Browns defense made Drew Brees look silly, and the Steelers defense is top notch, so it could be another tough offensive day for the Saints. And nothing can possibly go wrong for the Steelers, so Steelers win.

Anyone want to guess my record from last week? That’s right, 8-6 for the 3rd straight week. Six weeks down and I stand at a consistent, yet highly unimpressive record of 51-39. Only 12 games above .500 and that is even without the aid of a sub .500 week. So while predicting games is not a formula oriented task, I’ve compiled some personal stats to help you sort my more credible picks from the less credible ones. Here is a team by team record of how successful I am at picking their games:

Picking Record:
6-0: Lions
5-0: Bills
5-1: Giants, Saints, Falcons
4-1: Cardinals, Vikings, Steelers
4-2: Eagles, 49ers, Packers, Browns, Raiders, Colts, Titans, Jaguars
3-2: Panthers, Dolphins
3-3: Ravens, Jets, Broncos
2-3: Chiefs, Buccaneers
2-4: Rams, Bears, Texans, Chargers, Redskins
1-4: Cowboys, Bengals, Patriots
0-5: Seahawks

Yes, picking the Bills has been easy. The Seahawks…wow. I have absolutely no idea what’s going on with that team. A bad picking record for the Cowboys would normally indicate me picking them to lose every game that they might possibly loose. In this case, it’s them losing games that I pick them to win. So take these stats to mean as much or as little as you like. Here’s the picks with an indicator of how many games above or below .500 I am at picking the teams involved.

NFC
WSH vs CHI(-4)- I’m actually starting to be impressed with the Redskins. Even though they sit at 3-3, every game apart from the Rams embarrassment has been a one score game. The reason I’m taking a conservative approach to getting excited about the Skins is that their 4-12 record last year was laced with one score losses. Against the Bears, however, one of the teams that I finally jumped on board with last week, I’m feeling pretty confident in their defense against the question mark that is Jay Cutler and in their McNabb improved offense against a Bears defense that is good, but not what it was several years ago. Redskins win.
STL vs TB(-3)- In their last games, the Buccaneers were humbled by the Saints and the Rams were humbled by the Lions. The Rams have showed some offensive fire power, but the loss of Mark Clayton cuts into that dramatically. I’m still not on the Bucs bandwagon, but I’ll take them as reality starts to fall on the Rams. Buccaneers win.
SF vs CAR(+3)- The 49ers finally got a win last week, though it took the Raiders to do so, and now face a team looking for their first. The Panthers have struggled to show much of anything. The 49ers, however, have shown a good bit; they’ve just been an atrocious team. I hope they’ve learned that shooting themselves in the foot hurts, as I said they eventually would at some point, because it’s nerve wracking taking such an inconsistent team twice in a row. Those worries are greatly reduced by the Panther, however. 49ers win.
ARI vs SEA(-2)- Somehow the Cardinals have arrived at a 3-2 r ecord while making us all believe that they’re terrible. Even their defeat of the defending champions I found almost surprisingly unimpressive. Somehow, they just don’t look good. Granted, starting an undrafted rookie quarterback does tend to indicate that your other quarterback options haven’t worked out. As for the Seahawks, the addition of Marshawn Lynch brings some pop to the running game, and is Matt Hasselbeck back? I’m going to go with the Seahawks as they have shown several quality wins. Seattle wins.
MIN vs GB(+5)- The Vikings looked decent in their win over a decent Cowboys team, but it was enough to make me believe that they might be on their way back. Meanwhile, the Packers lost a tight overtime game against the Dolphins. I’m starting to believe that while the Packers offense is a capable offense, it’s not a dominating one that will walk over even stout defenses as I previously believed it would. Nevertheless, the Vikings defense isn’t one that I would call stout, nor is the Packers defense one I would suspect to fall in shambles versus the Vikings. Packers win.
NYG vs DAL(+1)- What can you say about the Giants other than, boy have they turned things around. After a dreadful 1-2 start, I was quite ready to bury them (at least, after they upset the Bears), but they’re stormed back and are making a case to be the best team in the NFC East. Meanwhile, the bright spot of the Cowboys has been last year’s laughing stock: Roy Williams. Should the Cowboys be in this game come the 4th quarter, the Giants should be able to force Tony Romo into yet another game killing mistake. Giants win.

AFC
BUF vs BAL(+5)- Tough OT loss for the Ravens last week, but now, the perfect remedy.
JAC vs KC(+1)- Despite the tough loss against the Texans, the Chiefs finally showed a passing offense, something they’ll need. Even though the Texans defense is far from the best pass defense, the Jaguars isn’t much better. Kansas City gets back in the win column.
PIT vs MIA(+4)- The Steelers struggled a bit against the Browns before breaking things open in the 4th quarter, but that’s their game. The Dolphins have really impressed me, suffering losses only to the Jets, and the Patriots (thanks to a wild special teams flop). They play close games and have done a fairly good job of coming out on top. Expect a game. A really good game. Two teams that play tough, close games. My mind says Steelers, but this could be one of the few games the Steelers manage not to win this year. Dolphins win.
NE vs SD(-5)- San Diego, San Diego. How is it that a team can amass so much offense and come away with so little to show for it? Meanwhile, the Patriots have been a far cry from what they’ve been over the past decade, yet they’ve pulled out a 4-1 record. Stats versus guts. Patriots win.
OAK vs DEN(+2)- Every now and then I love to see a guy that gets ripped to shreds emerge from a team with a bad passing game/receivers and succeed with some real help. That’s what we seem to have with Kyle Orton. I vaguely remember watching one of his first starts in the league after a Rex Grossman injury and thinking “here’s a guy that doesn’t look terrible on a bad offensive team. Too bad he’ll probably never get a chance to start other than injury fill in.” Denver hasn’t looked too bad and the Raiders are next up. Broncos win.

INT
CIN vs ATL(+1)- The Falcons defense got burned by the Maclin/Jackson combo and now face another good receiving corps. Carson Palmer has been mistake prone, however, though he has the potential to still play a good game. Matt Ryan looked terrible last week, but if he gets protection, should be able to win the game for Atlanta. Falcons win.
PHI vs TEN(+4)- Impressive win for the Eagles and statement performance from Kolb who looks to be getting the start again this week. DeSean Jackson won’t be in to open things up for everyone else, but they have plenty of offensive talent to keep things rolling. A big factor is the Eagles hit or miss run defense (is it just me, or does it seem like they only give up runs of either 2 or fewer yards or 5 or more?). Chris Johnson breaks a big one or two, but the Eagles should keep him contained for the most part and I’ll take the Eagles secondary over Vince Young. Eagles win a close game.
CLE vs NO(+5)- Colt McCoy has an easier task than he did last week against the Pittsburg D (okay, one of these days I’ll go a week without gushing about the Steelers defense or giving someone from last week a free pass for having to play them) but the Saints are no push over either. They finally looked really good last week by dominating the Buccanears. They haven’t been pretty, but they’ve been getting the job done. Saints win.

Week 5 brought me another 8-6 performance, let's hope this week goes better.
NFC
SEA vs CHI-Much to my delight, the Seahawks were on bye week last week which meant I didn’t have to worry about trying to figure them out. Much to my delight this week, they’re playing the Bears, who I have much more faith in following their convincing win without Jay Cutler. I give up for now on trying to figure out Seattle, but I don’t think they’ll be able to muster a win against the Bears this week. Victory Chicago.
NO vs TB- Last week I mentioned how I wanted to pick against the Saints but couldn’t find a team that seemed perhaps good enough. Well, I missed the chance last week, and now find myself with a 3-1 option. Problem is, it’s one of my least favorite 3-1 options out there. Sure, they looked decent against subpar teams, and had to pull an out-of-nowhere win to beat the Bengals, but I’m still not sold. Meanwhile, I have the Saints coming off an embarrassing win. Team I’m not that high on plus picking against a good team that’s going to come ready to play Sunday? Just can’t do it. Saints win.
DET vs NYG- Two weeks ago, I was ready to right the Giants off entirely. Then they upset the Bears and followed that with another phenomenal defensive performance. Meanwhile, the Lions finally got out of the gate with a trounce of the Rams. Calvin Johnson’s playing status is in question, and with the play of the Giant’s defense, Shaun Hill will need to play a great game. Giant’s win.
ATL vs PHI- Looks like Kolb will get the start and the Falcons defense could make it a rough day. The Falcons offense has gotten the job done, but has been far from impressive, save for the Arizona game. They should continue to get the job done against a fairly good, but not shut down Eagles offense. Unless the Eagles offense plays excellent or the Eagles defense really has a dominant game, Falcons win.
DAL vs MIN-Phew, this one looked a lot better 5 weeks ago. On one side, you have the most enjoyable kind of demise possible for your most disliked team: good players but not so much chemistry. On the other side, you have a beat up, wild throwing quarterback with a new toy, but not much consistency to bank on (though their many 3rd and long conversions Monday night were impressive). The winner starts to climb out of a hole, the loser puts themselves in an abyss. As much as I hate it, I have a lot more faith in Romo to Austin being able to make game breaking plays and win. Cowboys drop the Vikings.

AFC
BAL vs NE- The Ravens have yet to step into their preseason potential that made them my Superbowl pick, but they’re definitely a major contender. The Patriots have to adjust to life without the league’s best decoy and having their other receiving options getting cracked down on. They survived a wild game against the Dolphins, but proved very little in the process. Ravens win.
CLE vs PIT- Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the type of quarterback that I’m worried about having a rough first start. He’ll be out ready to play, and tough out some nice plays even if he’s not entirely caught up from missing time. If anyone can stop Peyton Hillis, my money’s on the Steelers defense. Sorry Cleveland, I still can’t seem to pick you. Steelers win.
KC vs HOU- Sigh. Over performing team or team with a few really ugly losses? Kansas City came closer to joining the legit category in my mind with their defense’s play against the Colts, but they won’t join that list until I see something from Matt Cassel. The Texans were victims of the Giant’s defensive surge last week. Important game for both teams. The Chiefs look to rebound from their first loss and avoid starting to become the annual team that drops off after a fast start. The Texans don’t want to drop to 3-3 in a division shared with the Colts and Titans. I’m going to go against my own conventional wisdom, however. Every now and then, you’ve got to have some faith in a team you don’t trust very much. Let’s see if the Chiefs can keep it going. I’ll take Kansas City.
NYJ vs DEN- The Broncos can pass the ball, but no way will they convert such an obscene amount of 3rd and longs which kept the Vikings in the game against the Jets defense. Meanwhile, I’ll keep taking the Jets until they show a serious kink in their armour.
TEN vs JAC- The Jaguars are on a two game winning streak. The Titans are coming off a win against a desperate Dallas team and in the process look like they actually have a passing game to work with, making the Chris Johnson threat even more menacing. It’ll be interesting to see if the Jaguars keep showing a little improvement, but for now, I’m taking the Titans.

INT
MIA vs GB- It’s tough to know how good Miami is. Does losing a game due to blocked kicks and interceptions mean you’ve got some serious problems, or does it mean you had rotten luck? On the other side, I’m starting to wonder if I was a bit too high on the Packers. Their offense hasn’t been what it was last year, and now they’re without Jermichael Finley and Rodgers has a concussion. Could be a wakeup call type game for the Packers as they lose their second in a row. Dolphins win.
SD vs STL- San Diego, San Diego. I keep thinking they’re a great team, then they get upset time and time again. Meanwhile, the Ram’s loss to the Lions and of their best receiver puts their ability to reach .500 highly in doubt, leaving the ugly 3-2 Cardinals and the uglier 2-2 Seahawks as the only threats to a sub .500 team making the playoffs. I’ll keep sticking to my guns, though. Chargers win.
OAK vs SF- You can’t even start to know how much I hate picking this game. Picking the Raiders never works out well, but who could take the 49ers? Especially after the Raiders are coming off an impressive win? Ugh. Yuck. Why schedule maker, why? I guess I’ve got to do something though. Come on, the 49ers have been playing close to some decent teams, right? I’ll give ‘em this last chance, or I very well may pick them to lose the rest of their games.
IND vs WSH- Have the Redskins actually looked good? Every year you hear about the Redskins getting good, but then they end up as an un-team with a bunch of previous big names. But they knocked off the Packers in a game I thought they’d lose to handily. But maybe their taking advantage of some bad play. If so, the Colts are a good remedy to put them in their place. Colts win.

Well, the first bye week took a toll on my wins total, rather than my losses total, and I went 8-6 last week bringing my season total to 35-27.

NFC (14-8):
STL vs DET- Predicting winners in a match-up of two unbalanced teams is easiest. Picking between two good teams is harder. Picking between two equally bad teams is even harder. And picking between two lower level teams who have shown the ability to play with some good teams but just aren’t all around good or consistent is the hardest. Detriot is 0-4 despite two almost comebacks against the Eagles and Packers and Calvin Johnson is finally involved in the offense which is a good thing for them. The Rams are still a work in progress. The Rams have already doubled last year’s win total (and matched their season win average from the past 3 years), but they are none-the-less still a work in progress and will have their share of downs this year. Detriot won’t go 0-16 again, and their impressive offense should be able to carry them to their first win of the year.
CHI vs CAR- Well, I have now established an example of my upset-picking credibility by calling the Giants to knock the Bears off the pedestal of the unbeatens. So be warned, I may harp on that all year long despite other upset picks falling flat on their faces. To the game, Carolina nearly beat the Saints. However, to me this is another indicator of the Saints taking a step backward, rather than the Panthers showing their mettle. However, Jay Cutler was knocked out of the game with a concussion after 9 first half sacks and has been ruled out of this weeks game. If they can play as well as they did last week, Jay Cutler’s absence helps the Panthers on their way to win #1.
GB vs WSH- Having the opposing team commit a delay of game penalty on 4th and goal inside the 1 after a time out, losing a guaranteed touchdown opportunity because your receiver tripped and fell down after catching the ball, and going scoreless in the second half usually things you can’t count on/survive. Green Bay is a better team than the Eagles (who’s ineptitude versus Washington continues to astound me) and should be a good measuring stick to make a judgment on the quality of the Redskins. Packers win.
NO vs ARI- I keep wanting to pick the Saints to get beat because they just don’t seem to have a molecule of the offensive fire that they had last year. Apart from the Falcons, however, none of their opponents have been close enough to moderately good in order to do so. The Cardinals don’t break the trend. If they break a trend, it will be the trend of the Saints offense looking mediocre. The Cardinals defense has already been carved up for more than 40 points twice in this young season, so expect the Saints offense to break out this week. Maybe that’s what they need to get going. Saints win.
PHI vs SF- I’m not gonna lie. This a game I hate to see come up on the Eagles schedule. The 49ers will figure things out and put together a decent run at some point, even if it’s only a 3 game win streak amidst a 4-12 season. They tend to play the Eagles well, and with an unpredictable breakout due any time now, the Eagles iffy quarterback situation Philly vulnerable. If Vick plays, his health will be questionable, and if Kolb plays, a slow start could put them in a hole that they just can’t climb out of (as we saw last week). I’m much more confident in the Eagles as a team than I am about the 49ers, but nevertheless, this one’s got me worried. A team that shoots themselves in the foot as much as the 49ers eventually realizes it hurts and stops. Nevertheless, I’ll have to take the Eagles.

AFC (10-13):
KC vs IND- The Saints aren’t the only 2010 Super Bowl team to disappoint this season. Looking past the 59 yard Scobbee FG, the Colts had to fight just to tie it up at the end against the Jaguars (they faced a 4th and 10 in their own territory on the final drive). Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off a bye week as the only remaining undefeated team. They’ve been playing great defense and face a great challenge against Peyton Manning and the stacked arsenal of receiving talent that he always seems to have. It’s tempting to pick the Chiefs to keep this surprising run going, especially after having two weeks to focus on the Colts, but after being beaten by the Jaguars, I have faith in the Colts to right ship and be ready to play. Colts win.
JAC vs BUF- A week ago, I might have had to stop and consider this one for a moment, but the Jaguars finally got Maurice Jones-Drew going and pulled a mammoth upset of the Colts. May not be a defining win, but it shows enough to not be concerned about Buffalo.
DEN vs BAL- The Broncos are starting to make me turn my head and consider them as a legit competitive team. However the Ravens really made me turn my head and solidified my opinion of them as a more than legit contender. As we’ve seen so far, it takes a tough, physical, and resilient team to stick it out with the Ravens and I don’t see the Broncos being able to hold up for 60 minutes. Ravens win.
SD vs OAK- Both of San Diego’s losses have been surprise upsets by teams that we didn’t think were very good who relied on special teams returns. The other Chargers performances have been dominating wins. I’d expect a 3-2 record after Sunday regardless of whether the Raiders pull a few kick returns out of nowhere or not. Chargers win.

INT (11-6):
TB vs CIN- Some serious question marks have to be raised about the Bengals after losing to the Browns despite finally getting their passing game going. However, the Browns haven’t been straight up bad, it could be that they just put things together last week. We’ve seen that the Bengals are able to tough out a win like they did against Baltimore, and I’m far from sold on the Buccaneers, so I’m uneasily picking the Bengals to win.
ATL vs CLE- Missed it by that much. Make whatever small gesture you prefer, that’s how close I was to taking the Browns last week. But I didn’t have enough confidence. They browns have been the opposite of the Saints for me, I want to pick them, they’ve shown some potential, but they just can’t seem to find an opponent that I can count on them against. The same holds true this week. Atlanta is rising in the ranks and I’m becoming more and more of a believer. Falcons win.
NYG vs HOU- Unless the Giants defense can muster another 9 first half sacks and knock Matt Shaub out of the game, they’ll have a hard time keeping this offense to 3 points. Texans win.
TEN vs DAL- It’s hard to know what to expect from the Cowboys. A horrid, 0-2 start followed by an impressive win over the Texans; and that was 2 weeks ago. Tony Romo isn’t the safe bet after a bye week that most star quarter backs are, but it could have been a good time for the team to get back on its feet. Meanwhile, I said at the start of the season that while the Titans might not be great, they could be that pesky team that other good teams just can’t seem to put away. I think that could start here. A Dallas team trying to get things together and then having to try and deal with Vince Young scrambling on 3rd down and Chris Johnson making touchdowns out of nothing. Titans win.
MIN vs NYJ- Last year we saw how effective Brett Favre was at chucking the ball into the air and letting a tall, athletic receiver named Sydney Rice out jump the defense. Sydney Rice is now named Randy Moss. However, we also saw at the start of the season how out of sync Brett was with receivers after a late appearance at training camp. It might take a while for the Favre/Moss connection to get going. Meanwhile, the Jets look like a well oiled machine. With their offense being effective, they can go a long way on the defense. I’m not ruling out the Vikings yet, but right now the Jets are far better, New York wins.